Twins "kicking the tires" on Garza

[kab21]

Not an albatross, but you don't want to many guys making 10 million + on your roster that aren't producing. Bad contracts tie up resources better spent elsewhere.

 

Not that I think Garza wouldn't give some bang for the buck on those terms.

 

7 straight seasons of <4 ERA pitching. How do you figure he isn't going to be producing? He's actually a really good pitcher but some are trying to suggest that he's just another back end arm on a team full of back end arms.

[jokin]

7 straight seasons of <4 ERA pitching. How do you figure he isn't going to be producing? He's actually a really good pitcher but some are trying to suggest that he's just another back end arm on a team full of back end arms.

 

Yup. Mind boggling really, the failure to understand the upgrade Garza represents, particularly one of our own that got away once already.

[cmathewson]

Wow. Why ever sign an upper tier player then- they could get hurt? And those who want Garza are thinking in the long-term, one of the best and affordable guys on the market who doesn't cost you a pick, and a chance to lock him up into the longer-term- assembling a rotation for the long-term should be a process and not a single offseason event- that's also managing risk.

 

What I hear you saying is we're sure to be successful at mitigating risk by NOT signing better players and keeping a stable-full of below replacement guys? That seems like you prescribe that we remove all risk of ever regaining contender status any time soon.

 

Don't read into what I'm saying. You praised a guy for saying it's a simple matter of whether he's an upgrade over what we have now or not. All I said is, it's not a simple matter. If it was that simple, I'd be all for it. I'm still for it, but I can understand why the Twins have reservations.

 

If the Twins had confidence that he'd stay healthy for the next five years, they'd have signed him by now. But they don't. And they don't want to spend $20 Mil a year for a guy who could be hurt for two of those five years. How likely is it? Likely enough to prevent his being signed by any other team. And perhaps with good reason, considering that he has a screw holding his elbow together and he's a maximum effort pitcher.

[twinsnorth49]

I think it's more likely Garza, Jimenez and Santana are waiting for the Tanaka sweepstakes to conclude before committing. It has the chance to set the bar higher for all of them.

[jokin]

Don't read into what I'm saying. You praised a guy for saying it's a simple matter of whether he's an upgrade over what we have now or not. All I said is, it's not a simple matter. If it was that simple, I'd be all for it. I'm still for it, but I can understand why the Twins have reservations.

 

If the Twins had confidence that he'd stay healthy for the next five years, they'd have signed him by now. But they don't. And they don't want to spend $20 Mil a year for a guy who could be hurt for two of those five years. How likely is it? Likely enough to prevent his being signed by any other team. And perhaps with good reason, considering that he has a screw holding his elbow together and he's a maximum effort pitcher.

 

Christy, you said "simplistic", a more loaded term than "simple". I don't think anyone is saying that this is a simple exercise or decision.

 

I think we're all aware of his medical history, right now there's a lot of jockeying from both sides trying to ink this deal. Garza's agent would be a fool not to ask for the sky with Tanaka still out there. All along I've preferred overpaying for 3 years with mutual options- in my book, that would be the proper course for risk mitigation.

[cmathewson]

Christy, you said "simplistic", a more loaded term than "simple". I don't think anyone is saying that this is a simple exercise or decision.

 

I think we're all aware of his medical history, right now there's a lot of jockeying from both sides trying to ink this deal. Garza's agent would be a fool not to ask for the sky with Tanaka still out there. All along I've preferred overpaying for 3 years with mutual options- in my book, that would be the proper course for risk mitigation.

 

In that I agree with you. And it appears to be the Twins' preferred course as well. But Garza wants a longer-term deal. I hope he relents.

[goulik]

At the beginning of the post season it was my belief that the Twins would have to grab a free agent pitcher or two and a position player or two before Garza would even consider the Twins an option. Now that we have, the pitcher I believe is the best of the off season is a possibility. Sign him!

He will cost more than any other free agent we signed this off season but there is a reason for that... He is a better pitcher. 4 years, front loaded, incentives based 4th year and an incentives based 5th year option.

[laloesch]

At the beginning of the post season it was my belief that the Twins would have to grab a free agent pitcher or two and a position player or two before Garza would even consider the Twins an option. Now that we have, the pitcher I believe is the best of the off season is a possibility. Sign him!

He will cost more than any other free agent we signed this off season but there is a reason for that... He is a better pitcher. 4 years, front loaded, incentives based 4th year and an incentives based 5th year option.

 

Absolutely agree. I keep hearing the same thing, oh he could get injured, he will get injured, blah blah blah. Clearly outside of Tanaka he's the best free agent starter available and he's only 29/30. Ryan is crazy not to sign him to a 4 or 5 year deal similar to Nolasco. Correia is a free agent at seasons end. Pelfrey is not that good and under contract for two years. Hughes has potential but was brutal at Yankee Stadium. Matt Garza is the best option available at the right price. With Tanaka there's no way to know how he'll transition to the majors. I'd sign him if it was up to me.

[AlwaysinModeration]

The payroll sits at about $83mm, right? And management repeatedly touts 52% of revenue, and the ability to go to $100mm, right? (Which they have surpassed before, right?)

 

I'd propose $17/year for Garza times 4 years...4/68. Plus maybe an option year? And if Correia is traded (for literally nothing), they are back to $95million for the season.

 

He would be the highest paid pitcher on the roster (ever?)...but he is a Twins organization player, so it's not like it is a total free agent pick up. In four years, when the wave of young players are getting expensive, his contract comes off the books. And he helps them become very competitive for the next 4 years, I think, until Sano, Buxton and Meyer hit their prime.

[Marta Shearing]

Doesn't a 4th year option based on innings pitch make perfect sense? 3/$51m with a $17m year 4 option if he pitches, say, 540 innings the previous three years?

[DocBauer]

Previously I had stated liking the idea of more money per year, rumored by the Twins, but for less years, say 3 or possibly 3 with some sort of mutual option, possibly incentive based.

 

My thinking has changed after taking a step back, looking deeper in to Garza's overall success in the AL East and his recent 4 plus year run. Even fighting a non-serious injury of late he produced well when on the mound. Considering his relatively young age still, I say move to a 4 year deal with a club option, a buyout that is fair, and perhaps an automatic kicker based on starts or innings pitched. That would be the best indicator of whether or not you'd even want him that 5th year. If he's healthy and producing you keep him. If not, the buyout. Seems a win-win for both sides.

 

And was pointed out to me recently, my version of the "52%" rule of revenue for payroll was off a bit as the Twins were actually under the norm last season. Therefore we can more easily afford the Garza deal, and still retain our financial flexibility. Especially with a possible trade then of Correia.

 

And as I have pointed out previously, and just above me as well, there could be a lot of teams by ST or the end at least, more than willing and needing a veteran innings eater on the cheap without a long-term tie.

 

My only concern is Garza's health. And I don't mean the arguement that anyone can be hurt at any time. Is there anything we're missing in regard to Garza's health? I've never heard any mention of health issues before, or long term concerns, and not sure I remember even hearing about the screw in his arm.

[DaveW]

Can we stop with the 3 year or 3 year with option contract offer talk? It simply isn't reality, in no possible scenario does garza get less guaranteed years then a guy like Nolasco. I would be shocked if he signs for less than 5 (or if the 5th year is an option year it's going to have an easy vesting threshold and/or large buyout.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Can we stop with the 3 year or 3 year with option contract offer talk? It simply isn't reality, in no possible scenario does garza get less guaranteed years then a guy like Nolasco. I would be shocked if he signs for less than 5 (or if the 5th year is an option year it's going to have an easy vesting threshold and/or large buyout.

 

What is almost surely going to play out in the coming weeks:

 

1. Nothing until Tanaka signs.

 

2. Tanaka signs, 5-6 losing teams are very disappointed.

 

3. Left few/no options, those 5-6 teams start aggressively bidding on Garza and Santana.

 

4. ???

 

5. Profit!

 

Garza and Santana are basically guaranteed four years, probably five. Neither will sign for total money under $70m.

[halfchest]

Can we stop with the 3 year or 3 year with option contract offer talk? It simply isn't reality, in no possible scenario does garza get less guaranteed years then a guy like Nolasco. I would be shocked if he signs for less than 5 (or if the 5th year is an option year it's going to have an easy vesting threshold and/or large buyout.

 

Agreed, At this point they're all waiting for post Tanaka fallout. The Twins only shot at getting a decent deal would have been to attack early like they did with Nolasco. I think they probably did go after Garza fairly aggressively but he declined and I can't blame him.

 

I also think this is why we haven't seen teams trading for SP yet either. Teams aren't full in on getting a Price or Jeff S-word until they know they cant get Tanaka.

[twinsfan34]

1. What kind of value will Garza bring a team? (WAR, Wins, whatever # you prefer)

 

2. Will he outperform Nolasco in 2014?

 

3. Thought this article from Fangraphs was an interesting look at Garza.

[halfchest]

1. What kind of value will Garza bring a team? (WAR, Wins, whatever # you prefer)

 

2. Will he outperform Nolasco in 2014?

 

3. Thought this article from Fangraphs was an interesting look at Garza.

 

1. He should be solid #2 pitcher with strikeout capability and upside.

2. Yes, I believe so. Only way he doesn't IMO is if he can't stay healthy which is a legitimate concern.

3. Nice article, makes me want to sign him more. He's a solid above average guy. Pretty consistent and we would be one of those homer suppressing parks they mentioned, especially to lefthanders.

[Marta Shearing]

I dont like the idea of the whole league held hostage waiting for the tanaka thing to work itself out.

[jokin]

I dont like the idea of the whole league held hostage waiting for the tanaka thing to work itself out.

 

Since the Dodgers Prez is now on record that they will sign Tanaka "whatever it takes", it behooves the Twins to game plan and think out the chess moves here and act pre-emptively. It's reported that Cleveland covets Garza over the other also-ran Aces.

[kab21]

1. What kind of value will Garza bring a team? (WAR, Wins, whatever # you prefer)

 

2. Will he outperform Nolasco in 2014?

 

3. Thought this article from Fangraphs was an interesting look at Garza.

 

Garza would be the only pitcher that can actually be considered a pseudo ace.

 

Despite good stuff and peripherals Nolasco has a career ERA much closer to Correia and Pelfrey. He was an okay signing because he has stuff but the signing only works out for the Twins if he actually is the pitcher that he was in his 6th season instead of the pitcher that he was for the previous 4 seasons.