Deduno

[robbie111]

Deduno and Albers were the Twins best starters statistically last year, Worley was behind everybody but Cole Devries. I hope Worley can improve this year but I'd have him behind Deduno, Diamond and Albers.

[johnnydakota]

This is an instance where Terry Ryan is in a bit of a pickle. Not adding Pelfrey means he's banking on a lot of ifs - if Deduno's shoulder is healthy, if Gibson can figure it out, if Meyer is ready to make the leap, if Diamond or Worley can have a light come on. Suddenly he is criticized for trotting out AAAA pitching and not giving us a chance to win. Signing Pelfrey opens him up to criticism that he is arbitrarily not giving the "young guys" a chance.

 

After three consecutive years of significantly underachieving in the pitching department, I would rather see TR hedge this direction than the other. Too much good pitching is a problem that TR will happily take as a problem come June.

hedge? ok ,I will accept that , but we couldnt hedge it with Hammel? why take Pelfrey again?

or how about we already had #3-5 filled , and hedge with a #2 ?

[Reider]

Like Florimon, Twins fans don't even know what they have in Deduno. The guy is awesome when he's healthy. He is a gamer. He doesn't go out there to nibble at corners and pitter patter around. He goes out there to dominate. He embraces the challenge in front of him. It's unfortunate that he's having shoulder problems, but he is the type of person we want on the Twins. Fans need to start watching the games instead of playing on their cell phones and looking into outer space, while the game is on.

 

People who are placing Gibson and Worely in the starting line up and writing Deduno off of the team should feel embarrassed. The only thing Gibson and Worely proved last year was that they weren't good enough (yet?) to pitch in the Major Leagues, while Deduno proved that he can pitch on a big stage and dominate (WBC) and was arguably the Twins' best starting pitcher, while healthy in 2013.

[jokin]

But he's not found money... He's a living breathing Human Being who is working at his chosen profession and starting to see his hard work paid off. 4.44 ERA in 2012 wasn't overally special but he had his stellar moments and he was giving up less than a hit an inning.

 

I remember discussions on Twins Daily saying "if he could just lower his walk rate by half"

 

Well... He cut that walk rate in half!!!

 

ERA 2.69 over 12 starts before getting hurt.

 

His GB% was pretty good and I watched each start. It was weak contact.

 

 

 

 

The other more significant number you haven't mentioned about Deduno is his GB%. It wasn't just pretty good, it was awesome. If he qualified, he would be #1 in the AL and is #2 overall for SPs over 100 IPs. It's a nearly incredible ~60%...and we all know how many of those GBs are weak chops right back to Deduno or the Catcher. Justin Masterson was first in the AL at 58%, but he pitched nearly 190 innings....and there's the rub, can anyone envison Deduno pitching anywhere close to that number? Steamer is projecting a serious regression from 2013- only 77 IPs and a 4.65 ERA.

 

Also, with the positives on his BB/9, came the negative with K/9 and K% which fell by 2% points. He also became more hittable, although not a big red flag, his H/9 increased from 7.9 to 8.8.

 

Don't get me wrong, Deduno's games are can't-miss for me, you never know what might happen when he's on the mound, when he's on his game, he's virtually unhittable, and his expression of emotion is very refreshing...... but in the final analysis, his unorthodoxic approach does feel like a mirage, like Garrett Morris imitating a "berry-berry-good" Latin ballplayer, like found money.

[jokin]

I don't think I've read any "cast Deduno aside" sentiment here -- some are skeptical, some want to stash him on the 60 day DL to start the year, but I don't think anyone has advocated he be DFA'ed or any such thing.

 

That said, add me to the skeptic camp. The career low walk rate was awesome... the career low K rate, not so much. I've got no problem with making him the #5 starter if he's healthy, but if he winds up being your #2 starter performance-wise, you might have problems.

 

Can I be in 2 camps at once?

[jokin]

Said veteran inning eaters, may well be attractive trade chips at the next trade deadline and the one that follows. I have a hard time seeing the downside on all this.

 

"Said" who?

 

I don't see any of these "veteran innings eaters" being attractive trade chips. Nolasco, and to some extent for the next year at least, Hughes, are tied up in their contracts for too long. Pelfrey and Correia simply aren't talented enough for a team making a big push for a playoff spot (Correia became persona non grata @ playoff-hopeful Pitt, and the Mets had zero interest in retaining Pelfrey even though they were pitching starved going into 2013). The rest of the motley crew have too many question marks and warts for anyone to take a chance by offering much in the way of value in return.

[Otwins]

Last Year's 5th starter the opening week was either Pedro Hernandez or Devries. This year it will be Deduno if healthy. TR's approach is fine with me. The only pitchers to worry about for innings are Gibson and Meyer. They SHOULD have to force their way into the lineup. Not just give the minor leaguers chances when they are kinda, sorta, maybe, I hope they are ready.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Like Florimon, Twins fans don't even know what they have in Deduno. The guy is awesome when he's healthy. He is a gamer. He doesn't go out there to nibble at corners and pitter patter around. He goes out there to dominate. He embraces the challenge in front of him. It's unfortunate that he's having shoulder problems, but he is the type of person we want on the Twins. Fans need to start watching the games instead of playing on their cell phones and looking into outer space, while the game is on.

 

People who are placing Gibson and Worely in the starting line up and writing Deduno off of the team should feel embarrassed. The only thing Gibson and Worely proved last year was that they weren't good enough (yet?) to pitch in the Major Leagues, while Deduno proved that he can pitch on a big stage and dominate (WBC) and was arguably the Twins' best starting pitcher, while healthy in 2013.

 

I loved this. I will say what others are saying though. I don't think anyone is writing Deduno off the team. It's just a sense we've seen this movie before.. new guy comes in, shows flashes, gets hopes up, disappears. That feeling gets compounded when there's literally no one else producing or being developed. This year we've brought on Nolasco & Hughes and that's a good thing.

[stringer bell]

My main concern about Deduno is injury. While he may be able to throw as soon as this spring, I wonder if he'll have the special movement he had on pitches that he had before his injury. Frankly, I don't know his injury history prior to coming up to the Twins, but we've seen "minor" injuries sap the effectiveness of Worley and Diamond after they had been successful pitching in the big leagues.

[Reider]

I loved this. I will say what others are saying though. I don't think anyone is writing Deduno off the team. It's just a sense we've seen this movie before.. new guy comes in, shows flashes, gets hopes up, disappears.

Deduno's talent isn't going to go away, just like Florimon's range and strong arm isn't going to disappear next year. If anything forces Deduno to take a step aside, it will be his health. If Deduno isn't able to keep up (e.g. durability wise) with the high pitch counts that are required of a starter, he could always be moved to the bullpen where he could continue doing great things without needing to worry about high pitch counts.

 

And if his health prevents him from being able to perform at the MLB level, then I guess we all have no choice but to move on. But hopefully things work out one way or another for him.

[ericchri]

If he's healthy, he should be in the rotation. Is anybody honestly arguing against that? Mostly I see skepticism that he'll be healthy, not anyone tossing him aside as not good enough.

 

I've never really watched Hughes or Nolasco, but based on their career numbers my expectation is they'll be pretty average. If you offered up a choice of those two, Correia, Pelfrey, or a healthy Deduno to watch, I'd bet almost everyone would pick Deduno, he's entertaining to watch. Worley, Diamond, and Gibson, too, I'd pick Deduno. Albers is fun when he's on, and I think Meyer will be a treat in the near future, but for now Deduno is the one I'd choose to watch pitching if I had a choice. Does that mean he's going to be good, though? I have no idea.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Frankly, I don't know his injury history prior to coming up to the Twins

 

Anybody know this? Looking at pre-2012 numbers, it appears Deduno's 2010 was affected by injury. Otherwise, he appeared healthy if not particularly durable (although it's hard to judge by minor league numbers -- shorter seasons, generally reduced workloads).

[Ultima Ratio]

Imagine if Deduno could add a knuckleball to his offerings. Where the hell would that ball go!?

 

I think Deduno and Worley make the team as #5/LR either way. Gibson starts in AAA, which I think his okay in order to get some confidence back after a horrible MLB call up.

[Thrylos]

Anybody know this? Looking at pre-2012 numbers, it appears Deduno's 2010 was affected by injury. Otherwise, he appeared healthy if not particularly durable (although it's hard to judge by minor league numbers -- shorter seasons, generally reduced workloads).

 

Healthy? Here:

 

Had Right Rotator Cuff and Labrum surgery August of 2013

Missed part of 2013 (ST and 5 days) with Groin injury

Missed 45 days of 2012 with Right Elbow injury

Missed 18 days of 2011 with Groin injury

Missed 111 days of 2010 with Right Elbow injury (inflammation)

Missed 22 days of 2009 with hip flexor injury

Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery

Missed 45 days of 2005 with Right Shoulder injury

[IdahoPilgrim]

I suspect some of the hesitancy about Deduno is that he is (potentially) a late bloomer. It does seem to me sometimes that late bloomers are treated with a fair amount of skepticism, for whatever reason, and perhaps an overall analysis would justify that bias, but we all know that sometimes it does come together for some later in their career rather than earlier (and we all know that early success in MiLB doesn't always translate into MLB success).

 

For myself, I ended the season believing that two pitchers had earned the right to be considered rotation starters next year, based on 2013 performances - Kevin Correia and Samuel Deduno. Add our new signings (Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey) and I think we have the initial depth chart for the rotation (put them in whatever order you like). I believe it is incumbent on all of the rest (Worley, Gibson, Meyer, Mays, etc) to force their way into that depth chart by their performances in spring training or in Rochester. They may very well do so (particularly Meyer), but for me Deduno starts camp with a rotation spot.

[Thrylos]

I suspect some of the hesitancy about Deduno is that he is (potentially) a late bloomer. It does seem to me sometimes that late bloomers are treated with a fair amount of skepticism, for whatever reason, and perhaps an overall analysis would justify that bias, but we all know that sometimes it does come together for some later in their career rather than earlier (and we all know that early success in MiLB doesn't always translate into MLB success).

 

Late bloomer? See above. He was injured every of the last 7 seasons, losing major time and having 2 major surgeries. He never bloomed. Just flashes....

[Otto von Ballpark]

Missed all of 2008 with Tommy John Surgery recovery

 

Whoa, missed that at Baseball Reference. There just wasn't a line for 2008 so I didn't notice the missed season!

 

Very cool that Baseball Prospectus has the detailed injury info, even for minor leaguers!

[amjgt]

I think of Deduno and his injury history like I thought of Jordy Nelson when I drafted him on my fantasy football team this year. Jordy had had some injury problems the last few years, but when he played, his per game fantasy numbers were near the top of the league. He went in the 5th round because of those injuries, but I was happy to take his 15pt/game when healthy and was prepared to slot in my 4th WR if those injuries came, which they never did this year (although Rodgers' injury felt like a Nelson injury).

 

Deduno, when healthy, will be our 4th or 5th starter (like Jordy was my 3rd WR) and he may well play above that level, until his next injury comes. When that injury comes, the Twins will just go the their heap of AAAA starters (4th WR), play some matchups, and ride that guy until Deduno comes back.

 

This way of thinking doesn't work when we are talking about a #1 or #2 starter, like it doesn't work with a RB in the fantasy football example, because the drop to your replacement level guy is too great for it to be worth the risk.

[Otto von Ballpark]

So, any thoughts on if Deduno H/9 rate is sustainable, given his BB/9 and K/9 rates last year? Among qualifiers, his SO/BB ratio would have been second to last in MLB -- only Jeff Locke of Pittsburgh was lower, and I think his season was pretty flukey too (and at least his raw K/9 rate was higher).