2014 blueprint

[Shane Wahl]

By the way, I do think there is a difference in being a leadoff hitter. Leading off calls for pitch recognition and plate discipline. Hicks hadn't even really seen any MLB pitching, skipped AAA and was thrown into a position that was ridiculous. But he got better after being moved down. Note, that I only have him leading off against righties.

 

Did Puckett start out as a leadoff hitter?

 

Knoblauch was batting second, correct?

[golfboy1]

By the way, I do think there is a difference in being a leadoff hitter. Leading off calls for pitch recognition and plate discipline. Hicks hadn't even really seen any MLB pitching, skipped AAA and was thrown into a position that was ridiculous. But he got better after being moved down. Note, that I only have him leading off against righties.

 

Did Puckett start out as a leadoff hitter?

 

Knoblauch was batting second, correct?

 

Yes, Puckett started out as a leadoff hitter. Knoblauch batted second while Gladden was the leadoff hitter.

 

You yourself said Hicks "was thrown into a position that was ridiculous." How is putting him back into that same position now any better? He hasn't even come close to hitting either ML pitching or even AAA pitching. While I'm not claiming Presley is the long term answer to CF or the leadoff spot I certainly think he is a better short term solution than giving Hicks the job.

 

I think Puckett & Knoblauch are the exceptions. It's much more common that players come up to the majors, struggle for awhile, get sent down & hopefully learn what it takes to play at the ML level. So far, I've seen no indication that Hicks is ready to play at the ML level.

[Shane Wahl]

Hicks had an OPS of around .700 after April. He also was injured in AAA until the very end of the season when he started hitting again.

 

Also, I am, again, only calling for him to leadoff against right-handed pitching.

[gil4]

Deduno makes me think about trading Correia more and more.

 

Deduno's shoulder surgery worries me. I know his agent says it went well and he should be 100% for the spring, but that's what they always say. Worley and Diamond were supposed to be 100% last year, and we saw how that went. (Granted, that might have been 100%, especially for Diamond.)

[Shane Wahl]

Dodgers Decline Options On Mark Ellis, Chris Capuano: MLB Rumors - MLBTradeRumors.com

 

"Capuano, 35, pitched to a 4.26 ERA with 6.9 K/9 and 2.0 BB/9 in 105 2/3 innings for the Dodgers this season. While his role with the club was uncertain early on, injuries opened up a rotation spot, and 20 of his 24 appearances for the Dodgers wound up being starts. A .334 batting average on balls in play shows that Capuano was the victim of some poor luck, and his FIP reflects that, projecting that his ERA should've been closer to 3.55"

[gil4]

Also, I am, again, only calling for him to leadoff against right-handed pitching.

 

You did mean left-handed pitching, right?

[golfboy1]

Hicks had an OPS of around .700 after April. He also was injured in AAA until the very end of the season when he started hitting again.

 

Also, I am, again, only calling for him to leadoff against right-handed pitching.

 

I guess we will have to agree to disagree.

 

It's always possible to make a case with stats to argue a point. Mike Pelfrey had an ERA of 3.25 in July & 3.60 in August so if we ignore the other months he had a good year. Hicks improved slightly after April but he still only batted .230 with an OBP of .292 in July before he was sent down. An OPS of around .700 isn't terrible but it ain't great either. If he is going to be leading off then his OBP is probably more important & that was still under .300. He batted .047 leading off & .189 vs. RH pitching so I'm not certain that he is ready to lead off yet.

 

Hicks batted .227 in August & .241 his last 10 games so I guess that was an improvement over earlier AAA numbers but they still weren't very good. They didn't recall him when rosters expanded so I suspect they want him to show improvement before they hand him a job. IMHO

[Shane Wahl]

You did mean left-handed pitching, right?

 

Yes, thanks!

[gil4]

A .334 batting average on balls in play shows that Capuano was the victim of some poor luck, and his FIP reflects that, projecting that his ERA should've been closer to 3.55"

 

Is Dodger Stadium still and extreme pitcher's park? His ERA+ was 84, which isn't good. That said, the past 6 years it has been 113, 87, 102, 81, 102, 84. Based on the pattern, we should sign him to either a 1 or 3 year deal.

 

Maybe we can sign him to a 2-year deal with the stipulation that he take a sabbatical in 2015, since he should do something other than pitch during odd years.

[Oxtung]

I agree with Shane that there is no reason to slow down future Twins from coming up and taking their lumps next year because if we slow them down, they take their lumps in 2015 and we have two more non playoff years instead of one more. Let's shorten these off years, get these young guys going and supplement them with FA "winners". Play we'll next year though we don't quite make the playoffs due to youthfulness but are primes for a BIG run in 2015.

 

You're making a big assumption that all it takes is one season in the majors to prepare the young guys regardless if they've spent 1 season above A-ball or 3. I think it more likely that pushing players that quickly leads to more Hicks like lost seasons. Why not let the players arrive when they are ready even if that means a few replacement players before then?

[Shane Wahl]

You're making a big assumption that all it takes is one season in the majors to prepare the young guys regardless if they've spent 1 season above A-ball or 3. I think it more likely that pushing players that quickly leads to more Hicks like lost seasons. Why not let the players arrive when they are ready even if that means a few replacement players before then?

 

True in that I think ample AAA time is valuable. I have maintained that AAA is important and there was a whole discussion about AA vs. AAA here. But I also believe two things:

 

1. Once a team takes that mistaken step and promotes a guy too fast to MLB, it is a problem to send him back down to AAA for long. It just messes things up. See Chris Parmelee. And before the "but Brian Dozier . . . " comment . . . Dozier was still terrible until he and Bruno found something to adjust.

 

2. A team that is terrible can afford to have its prospects get growing pains in MLB. The Twins are terrible, thanks to BS, TR, RG, and RA, and so on. Sticking Arcia and Hicks back in AAA seems like an unwise move.

[Trevor0333]

A lot of good points in here, a few bits that I don't agree with.

 

Both Cruz & Hart have publicly stated they will take hometown discounts to resign with their current/former teams.

 

It's probably fairly safe to say Hughes is not going to get a large multi year dea. He is going to want to go to a pitcher friendly team (ballpark/defense) to re establish his value on a 1 year incentive laden deal.

 

You arent getting anything for Doumit other than dumping salary. Maybe a guy like Welker but I think that is even unlikely. I'd prefer to dump the salary & spend it on pitching but they have plenty of payroll available to spend on pitching and it wont be used anyway. Maybe he can be packaged with Willingham near the deadline after rebuilding a little value.

 

Deduno can be a solid 4/5 guy cheaply for a few years. Your not going to get value for him and the rotation is so depleted it doesnt make a lot of sense to trade him.

 

Also I agree its almost certain Hicks will start in AAA as will Parmelee. Pressly, Mastrioanni, & Arcia will be the OF with Willingham splitting time between DH & 4th OF with Doumit.

 

As much sense as a platoon with Plouffe/Parmelee makes it wont happen. Gardy & Ryan have stated numerous times they don't believe in platoons which I find maddening. It makes sense that you dont want to platoon young guys developing, they will never improve nor will you find out if they can hit both sides without giving them the chance. However at some point it becomes painfully obvious the guy can't hit one or the other it should be done.

[Trevor0333]

I think the Twins will go hard after Randy Messenger & Suk-Min Yoon likely signing both. Also either Hughes or Josh Johnson on a 1 year deal. Feldman would be great & the Twins have always reportedly been high on him but he pitched pretty well for a contender in the AL Beast. The market will price him out of what the Twins will spend. Knowing Ryan's history, he is going to go for having multiple options mid level options.

 

Sano will make the team out of ST relegating Plouffe to 4th OF/1B duties. They should move Dozier but there are other 2B (Phillips,Kinsler etc..) who maybe available possibly watering down the trade market.

 

There's a good chance both Meyer & Gibson are in the rotation by June/July.

 

I hope a RHP bullpen guy (Burton) will be packaged with Dozier for a pitcher in the Meyer/May mold.

[Trevor0333]

Trade Brian Dozier & Glen Perkins to the Braves for Alex Wood & Sean Gilmartin.

 

Trade Doumit & Burton (now a proven closer ;p ) at the deadline for any near MLB pitcher with upside.

 

SP: Correa, Wood, Deduno, Messenger, Moon (Gibson & Meyer waiting in the wings in AAA)

Bullpen: Fien, Swarzak, Tonkin, Welker, Pressley, Theilbar, Albers

 

C: Mauer/Pinto

1B: Pinto/Mauer

2B: Rosario

SS: Florimon

3B: Sano

OF: Pessly, Arcia, Mastrioanni

DH: Willingham

Bench: Plouffe, Escobar, Doumit, Herman

[jokin]

Trade Brian Dozier & Glen Perkins to the Braves for Alex Wood & Sean Gilmartin.

 

Trade Doumit & Burton (now a proven closer ;p ) at the deadline for any near MLB pitcher with upside.

 

SP: Correa, Wood, Deduno, Messenger, Moon (Gibson & Meyer waiting in the wings in AAA)

Bullpen: Fien, Swarzak, Tonkin, Welker, Pressley, Theilbar, Albers

 

C: Mauer/Pinto

1B: Pinto/Mauer

2B: Rosario

SS: Florimon

3B: Sano

OF: Pessly, Arcia, Mastrioanni

DH: Willingham

Bench: Plouffe, Escobar, Doumit, Herman

 

Since you are predicting the Twins to go all-in the Far East, why not also sign Tanaka and get Wladimir Balentien out of his 3-year contract with the Swallows to play LF? There are ample available $$$ to sign all 4 of the above- and suddenly the Twins would be the talk of the American League as legitimate contenders. Yoon is still a crap shoot to return to form as a SP, Tanaka would replace him, only as the Ace- not the #5 starter- along with Wood and Messenger- a terrific top 3, with Yoon battling Correia, Deduno, Gibson and Meyer for spots at the bottom of the Rotation.

[Trevor0333]

Since you are predicting the Twins to go all-in the Far East, why not also sign Tanaka and get Wladimir Balentien out of his 3-year contract with the Swallows to play LF? There are ample available $$$ to sign all 4 of the above- and suddenly the Twins would be the talk of the American League as legitimate contenders. Yoon is still a crap shoot to return to form as a SP, Tanaka would replace him, only as the Ace- not the #5 starter- along with Wood and Messenger- a terrific top 3, with Yoon battling Correia, Deduno, Gibson and Meyer for spots at the bottom of the Rotation.

 

I would love (LOVE) for them to go after Tanaka. Thats just not the type of move Ryan makes. The Yankees are going all in on Tanaka especially now that they believe they can get out of A-Roids salary, plus the posting fee will not count towards the salary which they are determined to get under 189Mil to reset their luxury tax %.

 

Yoon I can't imagine costing more than a few million for the posting fee & salary. Somewhat low/cost low/risk with some upside kind of move Ryan aalways falls back on after his sticker shock FA contract heart attacks. Messenger is in the same boat with a bit more predicitability I suppose is the best word that comes to mind.

 

Arcia/Hicks/Buxton is the OF of the future & nearly here. I can't see Ryan paying to get a guy out of a contract when they have guys who should be ready by mid season2014-2015.

[Siehbiscuit]

Messenger would be good pull from Japan and I believe he was a guy on the Twins radar last year as well. A couple areas that are unlikely to happen are: 1) Parmalee starting in AAA. He is out of options and he would likely be picked up off of waivers, so I doubt the Twins would try and send him down. 2) Dozier will not be moved this off-season. He's a FO pet and unless Rosario was absolutely blasting the doors off at AAA and then MLB in 2014, maybe Dozier gets moved in the 2014 offseason. 3) Lastly, unless Doumit is moved he will be the DH. Which I disagree with, but its kind of a Twins reality. Willingham will play in LF and Arcia in RF. Mastroianni, with all due respect, is nothing more than a 4th OF. If healthy, he will be that again.

[Shane Wahl]

What are Messenger's Japan numbers? He wasn't good before he went there.

[ashbury]

Baseball-reference.com has a tab for players who have played in Japan, so if you go to Randy's page there and click on it you get this:

 

Randy Messenger Japanese League Statistics & History - Baseball-Reference.com

[Thrylos]

what are messenger's japan numbers? He wasn't good before he went there.

 

12-8, 2.89 era, 196.1 ip, 56 bb, 183 k, 1.171 whip

[Shane Wahl]

Thanks to both of you. It's more interesting, certainly.

[jokin]

Thanks to both of you. It's more interesting, certainly.

 

More interesting than Nishi, to be sure. And probably for not much more money than Nishi. They still need to make a serious offer at Tanaka.

[jokin]

I would love (LOVE) for them to go after Tanaka. Thats just not the type of move Ryan makes. The Yankees are going all in on Tanaka especially now that they believe they can get out of A-Roids salary, plus the posting fee will not count towards the salary which they are determined to get under 189Mil to reset their luxury tax %.

 

Yoon I can't imagine costing more than a few million for the posting fee & salary. Somewhat low/cost low/risk with some upside kind of move Ryan aalways falls back on after his sticker shock FA contract heart attacks. Messenger is in the same boat with a bit more predicitability I suppose is the best word that comes to mind.

 

Arcia/Hicks/Buxton is the OF of the future & nearly here. I can't see Ryan paying to get a guy out of a contract when they have guys who should be ready by mid season2014-2015.

 

The Giants are reported to be kicking the tires on Balentien, so there must be a do-able "out clause" in his contract in Japan. In this scenario, Arcia could eventually move to 1B or become more full-time at DH. Balentien is still only 29, so a 3-year deal plus an option would seem to make sense in a veteran role among the rookie wave. As far as Tanaka goes, the Twins have a chance against the Yankees in the sense that they just have to win on the posting fee number, not the contract.

 

I know this isn't how Ryan thinks or operates and I'm not optimistic on anything but low-budget, low-risk, high-reward type signings like Yoon (and there is NO Posting Fee to acquire him), but perhaps Pohlad was serious in his public statements to stop the "embarrassment" now and open the checkbook, plus put all of $25M in the media money to work towards the payroll and not the TF debt.

[Trevor0333]

The Giants are reported to be kicking the tires on Balentien, so there must be a do-able "out clause" in his contract in Japan. In this scenario, Arcia could eventually move to 1B or become more full-time at DH. Balentien is still only 29, so a 3-year deal plus an option would seem to make sense in a veteran role among the rookie wave. As far as Tanaka goes, the Twins have a chance against the Yankees in the sense that they just have to win on the posting fee number, not the contract.

 

I know this isn't how Ryan thinks or operates and I'm not optimistic on anything but low-budget, low-risk, high-reward type signings like Yoon (and there is NO Posting Fee to acquire him), but perhaps Pohlad was serious in his public statements to stop the "embarrassment" now and open the checkbook, plus put all of $25M in the media money to work towards the payroll and not the TF debt.

 

I just think they would probably keep Dozier at 2B & slide Rosario back to LF over making a move on Balentine.

 

There are new rules on the posting system where the player can choose between the top 3 bidders, also if he is not signed the runner up team in the posting fee has a chance to sign him. So even if the Twins fork over the 60+ mill it will take to be in the top 3 what Japanese player isn't going to choose LAD, NYY, or the Texas over the Twins.

[Trevor0333]

Interesting tidbit about Nolasco/Johnson/Messenger from their shared agent.

 

Sosnick reps not only Johnson, but fellow free agents Ricky Nolasco and Randy Messenger. He says that the Twins seem to have interest in every member of that trio, but his "sense is they're most interested in Nolasco."

 

Also the Twins wouldnt have to give up their 2nd round pick to sign him either. Rumors have the Dodgers possibly looking to go all in on Tanaka & make a run at David Price could indicate they won't chase Nolasco. He would be a great signing if the Twins could get him.

[beckmt]

Interesting tidbit about Nolasco/Johnson/Messenger from their shared agent.

 

Sosnick reps not only Johnson, but fellow free agents Ricky Nolasco and Randy Messenger. He says that the Twins seem to have interest in every member of that trio, but his "sense is they're most interested in Nolasco."

 

Also the Twins wouldnt have to give up their 2nd round pick to sign him either. Rumors have the Dodgers possibly looking to go all in on Tanaka & make a run at David Price could indicate they won't chase Nolasco. He would be a great signing if the Twins could get him.

 

He is another #3 or worse starter, Twins have plenty of those.

[Shane Wahl]

Ulgh. I wouldn't sign Nolasco. He's extremely average. It's a slightly improved Correia but for 3 years and $42 million or more. Yikes.

[Trevor0333]

He is another #3 or worse starter, Twins have plenty of those.

 

They have plenty of #5's, Im not sp sure about #3's. He is much better than Correia. I'd liken him to a durable Scott Baker, he would also instantly be the teams best SP althoiugh thats not high praise given their current crew.

[Shane Wahl]

Career ERA+ for Nolasco? 94.

 

No thanks.

[Oxtung]

I agree, Nolasco does little for me. Speaking of Mr. Baker I wouldn't mind the Twins bringing him back. Even a 1 year deal would work for me though an option year would obviously be nice.