The Doumit, Willingham trade challenge

[Shane Wahl]

2013 BR WAR: Josh Willingham 0.3, Chris Parmelee 0.5.

[Shane Wahl]

You put out a lineup of RF - Parmelee, CF - Mastro, LF - Pressley, DH - Colabello, SS - Florimon, 3B - Plouffe and C - Pinto/Herrmann and you are looking at a potential 110 loss team with this rotation. The only hope for the team is that Buxton, Sano and a couple of other rookies (that aren't blocked by Willy) come up and are awesome from day one.

 

Now if your goal is to be worse than the Marlins/Astros then it makes sense.

 

Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia? Not in your plans at all?

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Only current top 150 prospects are worth trading for? That is a preposterous claim. Travis Harrison, Danny Santana, Jorge Polanco, Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, DJ Baxendale, Adam Walker, Kennys Vargas, Zach Jones, and on and on and on are not top 150 prospects right now.

 

Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, DJ Baxendale, and Trevor May will not be #3 SPs or better. Also, I didn't say "top 150 prospects". I said "top 150 pitching prospects" or pitching prospects who would rank in an overall top 150.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

2013 BR WAR: Josh Willingham 0.3, Chris Parmelee 0.5.

 

Because 481 ABs takes precedence over a 5 year trend. If 2 wins is meaningless, how are you going to get those 2 wins back in a trade? You'd really have to cross your fingers that we don't get some Hendriks/Hernandez #6 pitcher in return.

 

Also I apologize for not multi-quoting, people.

[Shane Wahl]

Trevor May, Tyler Duffey, Zach Jones, DJ Baxendale, and Trevor May will not be #3 SPs or better. Also, I didn't say "top 150 prospects". I said "top 150 pitching prospects" or pitching prospects who would rank in an overall top 150.

 

My bad about sorta not understanding you. I read it as top 150 prospects who are pitchers. You then indicate that you mean strictly pitchers, but then say "overall top 150" so I still don't know what you mean, but even then it doesn't matter. Such prospect lists are pretty volatile. Players on the Twins top 50 list from last year have jumped up pretty far in one year. I don't know why anyone could see an actual detriment in getting two roughly 20-25 Twins org prospects in exchange for 10 million dollars of potential mediocrity from players who are likely to not be good at all after 2014. But those two players might serve actual contending teams well.

 

I don't want to reduce what I am saying to this, but maybe it needs to be said: there is a lot of room between a "bag of baseballs" and "top prospects."

[glunn]

That is a preposterous claim.

 

Moderator note -- I realize that you guys are having a spirited discussion, but language like this is inherently disrespectful and potentially inflammatory.

 

It's OK to say you disagree, and forcefully argue why. But when you characterize someone else's idea a "preposterous", this actually weakens your argument and your ability to persuade the other person. It is better when you explain in a friendly way why you feel that their position is preposterous. Then, the other person might even be persuaded that they were wrong, or at the very least they will respond with respect.

 

You are having a good discussion. Please keep it within TD policy.

[Shane Wahl]

Because 481 ABs takes precedence over a 5 year trend. If 2 wins is meaningless, how are you going to get those 2 wins back in a trade? You'd really have to cross your fingers that we don't get some Hendriks/Hernandez #6 pitcher in return.

 

 

Also I apologize for not multi-quoting, people.

 

 

 

They aren't the same age though, not even close. Willingham is clearly starting to decline and there is the potential still for Parmelee to become adequate. Shedding Willingham and Doumit has effects on Parmelee, Arcia, Pinto, and Herrmann (AKA players who could actually be around after 2014). It also sheds $10 million to spend elsewhere (could easily amount to 2 wins by itself!). And then the actual traded-for players are gambles, but it is something for the future, unlike keeping aging veterans who are only valuable at the DH on a REBUILDING team.

[Shane Wahl]

Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

 

I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.

[Guest USAFChief]

Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

 

I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.

 

Maybe two of them start the season in AAA while Willingham and/or Doumit have a hot start and reclaim some trade value. Both were legit major league players as recently as 2012. Or maybe Hammer and/or Doumit contribute to a team that is better than we have any right to hope for. Or maybe they both tank even worse than they did in 2013, and you can't even get what little you'd get now for them. I think that's a risk worth taking...it's really not much of a risk at all.

 

In any case, if/when better players are on hand, I would guess the "problem" will resolve itself. Until then, I don't see the rush.

[freshinthehouse]

I don't think it would be too far fetched for Willingham to have an OPS are .850 around mid-season. If so, I think the return you could get would make it worth keeping him around for 2-3 months, especially when he isn't really blocking anyone.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

My bad about sorta not understanding you. I read it as top 150 prospects who are pitchers. You then indicate that you mean strictly pitchers, but then say "overall top 150" so I still don't know what you mean, but even then it doesn't matter. Such prospect lists are pretty volatile. Players on the Twins top 50 list from last year have jumped up pretty far in one year. I don't know why anyone could see an actual detriment in getting two roughly 20-25 Twins org prospects in exchange for 10 million dollars of potential mediocrity from players who are likely to not be good at all after 2014. But those two players might serve actual contending teams well.

 

I don't want to reduce what I am saying to this, but maybe it needs to be said: there is a lot of room between a "bag of baseballs" and "top prospects."

 

That's fine. What I mean is a player with top of the rotation potential will alone put him in a general top 150 (for all prospects). Not often do you see pitchers come out of no where.

[YourHouseIsMyHouse]

Is there a general attitude that Arcia, Pinto, Hicks, and Herrmann all should start the year in AAA?

 

I would disagree vehemently. If 2014 isn't about the youth movement, I don't know what to say about this organization.

 

Herrmann should, but the others should stay. Chris was bad with Twins and even worse with the Red Wings.

 

They aren't the same age though, not even close. Willingham is clearly starting to decline and there is the potential still for Parmelee to become adequate. Shedding Willingham and Doumit has effects on Parmelee, Arcia, Pinto, and Herrmann (AKA players who could actually be around after 2014). It also sheds $10 million to spend elsewhere (could easily amount to 2 wins by itself!). And then the actual traded-for players are gambles, but it is something for the future, unlike keeping aging veterans who are only valuable at the DH on a REBUILDING team.

 

My personal feeling is it was a clubhouse thing and the "suckage" was contagious. A few injury issues here and there for Josh too. What's 10 million to spend elsewhere when we currently have 50 million we aren't spending elsewhere? Also, you don't win a division with a bunch of 20 year old kids. You need veterans, especially since the coaching staff sure as hell can't teach these kids anything.

[Shane Wahl]

That's fine. What I mean is a player with top of the rotation potential will alone put him in a general top 150 (for all prospects). Not often do you see pitchers come out of no where.

 

I just don't think those are the only players worth trading for. The Twins don't have more than one current clear-cut 3-5 person in their rotation for 2014.

[kab21]

I just don't think those are the only players worth trading for. The Twins don't have more than one current clear-cut 3-5 person in their rotation for 2014.

 

Isn't this irrelevant? Neither Willy nor doumit is landing a clear cut starter for 2014. The best case is that they land an intriguing rk ball prospect that might be up in 3+ years. Despite people slamming the MiLB pitching depth the Twins actually have several intriguing low level pitching prospects.

 

I think a comparable for Willy is the Morneau trade and that was done in August when he was only owed a little money and he was currently healthy. That netted a 4th OF'er and an inconsistent MLB ready RP'er. That is hardly overwhelming.

[Shane Wahl]

Isn't this irrelevant? Neither Willy nor doumit is landing a clear cut starter for 2014. The best case is that they land an intriguing rk ball prospect that might be up in 3+ years. Despite people slamming the MiLB pitching depth the Twins actually have several intriguing low level pitching prospects.

 

I think a comparable for Willy is the Morneau trade and that was done in August when he was only owed a little money and he was currently healthy. That netted a 4th OF'er and an inconsistent MLB ready RP'er. That is hardly overwhelming.

 

Sorry, I was just making the point that there is value in players who may only top out at bottom 3/5 of the rotation in general. That is, it is conceivable that the same problem presents itself to the Twins in 2015 without Correia and maybe Meyer, Gibson, and May as 1-2-3.

 

And yes there is a fairly loaded bottom third of the system in terms of starting pitching.

[Shane Wahl]

I still think the very viable target lies between the Butera and Morneau trades. One reason I say that is because I think the Twins were actually looking for someone like Presley--someone MLB-ready to play every day in the OF. This focused the search in the Pirates system instead of targeting younger pitching.

[kab21]

Sorry, I was just making the point that there is value in players who may only top out at bottom 3/5 of the rotation in general. That is, it is conceivable that the same problem presents itself to the Twins in 2015 without Correia and maybe Meyer, Gibson, and May as 1-2-3.

 

And yes there is a fairly loaded bottom third of the system in terms of starting pitching.

 

So this is your quest to find a bottom of the rotation arm in a few years and aim for 110 losses next season?

[Shane Wahl]

So this is your quest to find a bottom of the rotation arm in a few years and aim for 110 losses next season?

 

No. First I realize it's a gamble to hope for two starters down the road. Second, it isn't clear to me that Willingham and Doumit and their 1,000 plate appearances is really going to be an improvement over those 1,000 plate appearances going to whatever combination of Arcia, Parmelee, Pinto, and Herrmann. It certainly isn't a matter of more than a couple wins. It could very well be the opposite. Third, I don't see how giving 1,000 plate appearances to those two does any good for the future of the Twins beyond 2014.

[Shane Wahl]

And fourth, again, that $10.5 million or whatever would look better when given to a FA starting pitcher. It's conceivable that a straight up swapping out of Willingham and Doumit for one of those FA starters would balance the wins and losses. Plus getting playing time for actual future Twins and getting a couple minor league pitchers back . . .

[kab21]

The Twins have so much money to spend in FA that it's not even a factor. 1 yr contracts basically have no effect on the Twins at this point. The problem with FA is that most (probably all) good FA pitchers are going to require 5 yrs.

 

You are still overestimating the quality of the prospect that you would receive especially in a Doumit trade.

 

Let's take some time to actually look at how awful the Twins lineup would be. Ranked roughly by ability.

Mauer (1B I guess)

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dozier - 2B

Arcia (should spend 2+ months in AAA)

 

 

Plouffe - 3B

Pinto - C

Colabello - DH

Parmelee - RF

Mastro - CF

 

 

Hicks - (should spend 2+ months in AAA)

Pressley - LF I guess

florimon - SS

 

This is a truly awful lineup. The only hope that the Twins have a top 20 offense is if the rookies and almost rookies (Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, etc...) are up earlier than expected and are really good immediately. 110 losses here we come.

[Major League Ready]

I can't come up with a good reason to keep Doumitt.

Willingham, I can see a few reasons.

1. His $7M is not likely to matter in terms of budget so there is likely to utility in terms of managing budget.

2. If he bounces back to somewhere near 2012, he could net a decent prospect.

3. He appears to be a good clubhouse guy and we already lack leadership.

4. He likely won't be blocking anyone. Even if all of the "prospects" are playing as well as we could hope, he can DH.

 

I see no reason to keep him after the trade deadline. Move him for whatever you can get, including nothing if that's all his performance warrants.

[nicksaviking]

I'm a gambling man, at least when it comes to the assets the Pohlad's control, so I'm more inclined to hold onto Willingham and hope his trade value increases by July. Though I do wonder, even if he has a season akin to 2012, is his value for the last 2-3 months of the season going to be any higher than it will be now for a full season? Teams haven't been willing to part with much at the trade deadline lately, particularly for rentals. The difference on return might not be all that much, stats be damned.

[Alex]

The Twins have so much money to spend in FA that it's not even a factor. 1 yr contracts basically have no effect on the Twins at this point. The problem with FA is that most (probably all) good FA pitchers are going to require 5 yrs.

 

You are still overestimating the quality of the prospect that you would receive especially in a Doumit trade.

 

Let's take some time to actually look at how awful the Twins lineup would be. Ranked roughly by ability.

 

 

This is a truly awful lineup. The only hope that the Twins have a top 20 offense is if the rookies and almost rookies (Arcia, Sano, Buxton, Rosario, etc...) are up earlier than expected and are really good immediately. 110 losses here we come.

 

The problem is the lineup doesn't get dramatically better with Doumit and Willingham in there. I mean, we all hope it does, but....

 

I do think that part of the assumption in trading them (at least my hope) is they bring in a younger, better hitter.

[kab21]

The problem is the lineup doesn't get dramatically better with Doumit and Willingham in there. I mean, we all hope it does, but....

 

I do think that part of the assumption in trading them (at least my hope) is they bring in a younger, better hitter.

 

Doumit I don't really care about. He's not a good enough hitter unless he's catching and he's terrible at catching. But Willingham is the 2nd best hitter on the team. I don't see how that is even debatable. Perhaps he is injured again and sucks but when the next best hitter is Brian Dozier there isn't a lot of competition.

[Alex]

Doumit I don't really care about. He's not a good enough hitter unless he's catching and he's terrible at catching. But Willingham is the 2nd best hitter on the team. I don't see how that is even debatable. Perhaps he is injured again and sucks but when the next best hitter is Brian Dozier there isn't a lot of competition.

 

Please note my use of the words "dramatically "and "hope." Saying someone is the second best hitter on this team is like saying, well, someone is the best pitcher on this team -- ie not much. I'd argue that Arcia will probably fit that bill next year, but again, that's hope.

 

But, more to the point, Willingham had one good month in 2013, one. I realize he was hurt some of the season and hopefully he comes back to some kind of form, but I think an .800 OPS is a questionable hope. Until he shows that last year was a fluke and not a sign of decline (not unusual in a 34 year-old power hitter -- 35 next season), I don't know how the notion that he improves the lineup "dramatically" or is the "2nd best hitter on the team" isn't debatable.

[Guest USAFChief]

Please note my use of the words "dramatically "and "hope." Saying someone is the second best hitter on this team is like saying, well, someone is the best pitcher on this team -- ie not much. I'd argue that Arcia will probably fit that bill next year, but again, that's hope.

 

But, more to the point, Willingham had one good month in 2013, one. I realize he was hurt some of the season and hopefully he comes back to some kind of form, but I think an .800 OPS is a questionable hope. Until he shows that last year was a fluke and not a sign of decline (not unusual in a 34 year-old power hitter -- 35 next season), I don't know how the notion that he improves the lineup "dramatically" or is the "2nd best hitter on the team" isn't debatable.

Willingham is a career .830 OPS, 122 OPS+ MLB hitter over 4200+ PAs. Prior to 2013, he last failed to put up an .800 OPS in his second big league season, 2005. He had an .890 OPS as recently as 2012.

 

Now maybe he has fallen off a cliff at age 34. Then again, he might just have had a down season, like thousands of big leaguers in the past, and he'll put up decent numbers again. If i were a betting man, I'd put even money on him having a higher OPS in 2014 than any current Twin not named Mauer.

 

He doesn't improve any teams lineup "dramatically." He has, however, certainly improved the Twins lineup over the alternatives in both his seasons here. In any case I see literally almost no downside to keeping him.

[kab21]

Willingham has had one <.800 OPS season since 2005. It is far more likely that he OPS's better than almost every option the Twins have at LF/RF/DH. And that includes Arcia who I like a lot long term still.

 

I guess it just comes down the fact that I'm dead set against being in the position where Parmelee and some random guy like Colabello almost have guaranteed starting positions before spring training starts. I'm not even very excited about Arcia opening the year in the majors. If it was the case where the twins had 2 really good players at LF/RF/DH and we were just looking for one youngster to step up then Willy is expendable but the Twins could be starting the season with below average hitters at almost every spot in the lineup.

 

And we are talking about getting rid of Willingham for someone barely rated in the top 200? Really? How bad does everyone want next season to be? It's unlikely to be good but I really don't want a 110 loss season after 3 straight 90+ loss seasons.

[TheLeviathan]

Injury prone players at 34 are a bad thing to plan on OPSing anything. And no field/some slug corner players are some of the easiest to find if you need to.

[Alex]

Injury prone players at 34 are a bad thing to plan on OPSing anything. And no field/some slug corner players are some of the easiest to find if you need to.

 

Thanks, this was going to be my next point. It's not just that there's concern over whether he has declined but that if he doesn't hit well, he doesn't have much else he can do.

[Guest USAFChief]

Injury prone players at 34 are a bad thing to plan on OPSing anything. And no field/some slug corner players are some of the easiest to find if you need to.

So what's the upside of giving him away this winter? What's the downside of not giving him away?