Article: What's the Plan: Byron Buxton

[Chance]

Also, if Sano comes up there is no reason not to have Rosario up. I still think that he will need the lesser amount of grooming between the two of them.

[orangevening]

Just want to say I love this series and the passionate discussion it stirs up. Hopefully I'm not playing spoiler, but are you guys planning on doing a overall "what's the the plan" I.e. a look at who will be playing where/pitching in the rotation in 2014/15?

[amjgt]

Having heard about Buxton's work ethic, I would think it would be exciting for him to play a couple weeks playing against the best at the highest level, see what he has to do to be one of those best, and spend the offseason relentlessly working on those things.

 

The 40-man roster issue is almost a non-starter for me, however the service time might be a big enough hurdle that Terry Ryan doesn't want to have to hop over.

[jokin]

Just want to say I love this series and the passionate discussion it stirs up. Hopefully I'm not playing spoiler, but are you guys planning on doing a overall "what's the the plan" I.e. a look at who will be playing where/pitching in the rotation in 2014/15?

 

Great point, orange. Kudos to whomever at TD who came up with the concept for this series, it's easily about the best thing going on Twins Daily at this point in the season.

 

A grand summation article after a set of articles that focus on who and what's next for the Twins pitching staff can keep this good conversation going. We've all breathed a collective sigh of relief on Alex Meyer and he was well-covered in this series, but who else has a shot at making an impact on the Twins staff in 2014 and going forward soon thereafter?

[Brock Beauchamp]

29-30 is not the peak, that's 1970s thinking......actually, the peak years are younger. There are many articles on line about elite talents, and when they should be up....and 23/4 is LATE for elite players.

 

Well, 26-28 are generally the peak seasons. Guys like Buxton who has speed as a primary weapon can tail off significantly but it looks like Byron has enough of a bat where losing a step won't crush him.

 

Either way, he's going to be up here as a 22 year old at the very latest. That means the Twins will lose arb control somewhere around 28-29, which is just "past" his prime.

[iastfan112]

29-30 is not the peak, that's 1970s thinking......actually, the peak years are younger. There are many articles on line about elite talents, and when they should be up....and 23/4 is LATE for elite players.

 

Baseball Prospectus | How Do Baseball Players Age?

Hitters Age Like Wine ? Power Like Cheese? | FanGraphs Baseball

 

Both indicate that the 28-29 season is part of the peak, admittedly the latter half. Given from what I've read the most valuable seasons to have control of are 24-29. Peak is actually around 29-30 for hitters if the player stays healthy but that's hardly a given.

[drjim]

Well, 26-28 are generally the peak seasons. Guys like Buxton who has speed as a primary weapon can tail off significantly but it looks like Byron has enough of a bat where losing a step won't crush him.

 

Either way, he's going to be up here as a 22 year old at the very latest. That means the Twins will lose arb control somewhere around 28-29, which is just "past" his prime.

 

I think that is the wrong way to look at it. Guys whose primary weapon is speed will tail off, but Buxton obviously has a strong hit tool (and other tools as well). Athletic guys with plus hit tools and plate discipline age the best.

 

I really think Buxton is about as close as one can come to the perfect prospect. I also think the thought of calling him up this year is insanity.

[jokin]

I think that is the wrong way to look at it. Guys whose primary weapon is speed will tail off, but Buxton obviously has a strong hit tool (and other tools as well). Athletic guys with plus hit tools and plate discipline age the best.

 

I really think Buxton is about as close as one can come to the perfect prospect. I also think the thought of calling him up this year is insanity.

 

I was right with you to the last word of the last sentence, but then again, it's incredibly hot and sticky outside and those that wouldn't be opposed to letting Buxton taking a look at major league life and accepting the infinitely small risk in putting him on the roster a little earlier than next July when he's likely called up anyway may very well be suffering from a mass case of heat stroke and weather-mania.... and after all that being said, I will be happy to defer to your point, you are the "doctor";)

[Craig Arko]

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Buxton and Sano here just prior to the All-Star game. I also wouldn't be shocked to see it right after. Depends on how well the organization thinks they can handle the throng of national press in town for the game.

 

At very least they would probably be in the Futures Game again, and may stick around afterwards.

[clutterheart]

I'm in the opposite camp here.

I want the Twins to play the service time game long and slow with both Buxton and Sano.

I see no chance of competing next year so want to delay their MLB debuts as long as possible.

June or July 2014 for Sano assuming he does well in AAA next year

June 2015 for Buxton.

Hopefully that will give the organization enough time to figure out its starting pitching problems.

[jokin]

I wouldn't be surprised to see both Buxton and Sano here just prior to the All-Star game. I also wouldn't be shocked to see it right after. Depends on how well the organization thinks they can handle the throng of national press in town for the game.

 

At very least they would probably be in the Futures Game again, and may stick around afterwards.

 

This is what I'm thinking on Buxton, with Sano possibly up before.

[jokin]

I'm in the opposite camp here.

I want the Twins to play the service time game long and slow with both Buxton and Sano.

I see no chance of competing next year so want to delay their MLB debuts as long as possible.

June or July 2014 for Sano assuming he does well in AAA next year

June 2015 for Buxton.

Hopefully that will give the organization enough time to figure out its starting pitching problems.

 

It might help the pitching problems if these 2 get established sooner rather than later, thus making MN a more desirable destination for FA pitchers.

 

Plus, they both need next year to get their feet wet to get us to being a legit contender in 2015. And June 2015 would be too long to wait for Buxton. The hole in the Twins OF can't be left that gaping, for that long a period of time, can it really?

[howieramone1406390264]

I'm in the opposite camp here.

I want the Twins to play the service time game long and slow with both Buxton and Sano.

I see no chance of competing next year so want to delay their MLB debuts as long as possible.

June or July 2014 for Sano assuming he does well in AAA next year

June 2015 for Buxton.

Hopefully that will give the organization enough time to figure out its starting pitching problems.

 

There is no service time game. The goal is to avoid a long rebuild period.

[clutterheart]

There is no service time game. The goal is to avoid a long rebuild period.

 

Sounds great, but I am not hopefuly about 2014 -at all. So whats the point of quick promotions to watch these guys learn on the job with Kevin Correa pitching opening day?

I say keep them in the minors for as long as possible - keep hope alive!

[beckmt]

I expect Sano to start next year in AAA and be up in about June, I expect Buxton to start in AA and be up between July and September based on how he adjusts. Agree with the service time issue of why start service time if the rotation gives us no chance to be competitive. That would have to be addressed before I would start the service time clock early.

[Mike Sixel]

so if the pitching is bad in 2015 or 2016, would you promote Sano or Buxton? If so, why not in 2014?

[jokin]

N/M

[jokin]

so if the pitching is bad in 2015 or 2016, would you promote Sano or Buxton? If so, why not in 2014?

 

So now the "what's the use?" contingent may as well be advocating for retaining the option for the "full six year minor league developmental plan", as long as they deem the Twins as having no chance of being competitive? Wow, the logic in this thinking eludes me. Since the pitching rotation won't likely be fully in place and with all of them having the requisite major league innings under their belt until 2017 (ie, the best year for the chance at being "competitive"), it looks like a long, long stretch with a roster chock-full of retreads and has-beens and never-will-bes is the preferred option being advocated.... and the logical conclusion one draws from those having the "wait and stall on service time" until it's "just right" approach.

 

And what if half of the members of the future projected rotation flame out in one way or another (odds favor just such a scenario as likely)? Strategically wait on calling up Buxton until 2018?

 

But hey, it's not all bad, this could result in seeing a few years of Red Wing Dynasty with a lineup consisting entirely of "blocked" prospects, Sano, Rosario, Buxton, Walker, Kepler, Pinto, Santana, Pinto, Minier, D. Ortiz, Vargas. I see the makings for a reality show follow-up to Sano's documentary, Pelotero- "Pelotero 2- The Waiting for Goldilocks Years".

[CharacterGroove]

Sounds great, but I am not hopefuly about 2014 -at all. So whats the point of quick promotions to watch these guys learn on the job with Kevin Correa pitching opening day?

I say keep them in the minors for as long as possible - keep hope alive!

 

You want Sano and Buxton to go through their growing pains behind better pitching?

[amjgt]

24 out of Buxton's last 28 games he has reached base MULTIPLE times.

[Ncgo4]

He's on a crazy roll. Hitting .425 in August and .465 the last 10 games. Last night he stole second and on the overthrow went from 2nd to home. Insane speed and just learning to bunt and steal bases. When he becomes polished it may be real scary for the guy standing on the mound.