Vikes @ Curly Lambeau Field 11/23

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, The Great Hambino said:

And they're pretty much all gonna need to be replaced through the draft or with fringe-roster types.

 

There's a difference between becoming cap compliant and actually improving the personnel.  They can do the former but not the latter.  You can't just yadayada away a $50MM cap hole.  

That's the issue. The bad drafts have led to next year needing to replace 4-6 starters, and maybe more if you cut/trade some more starters. 

Not to mention every single OL has been hurt at least twice this year.....every, single, one. Can you count on them next year?

[gunnarthor]

4 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

And they're pretty much all gonna need to be replaced through the draft or with fringe-roster types.

 

There's a difference between becoming cap compliant and actually improving the personnel.  They can do the former but not the latter.  You can't just yadayada away a $50MM cap hole.  

They literally did it before. 

[The Great Hambino]

6 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

They literally did it before. 

When?  When they replaced a $35MM+ QB with a draft pick and a 95th-percentile-outcome reclamation project to get out of a smaller hole?  Those levers aren't available to pull this year.  Ironically, Darnold made the cost of future potential Darnolds go up, as shown by Daniel Jones' market last year

[gunnarthor]

4 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

That's the issue. The bad drafts have led to next year needing to replace 4-6 starters, and maybe more if you cut/trade some more starters. 

Not to mention every single OL has been hurt at least twice this year.....every, single, one. Can you count on them next year?

Kelly and O'Neil will likely be gone, although I might be wrong on O'Neil. From the internet - 

"There has been a lot of talk about how the underperformance at the QB position this year is especially troubling because the team went all-in on free agency to take advantage of the rookie scale QB contract. The common refrain is that since the team is $50M in the hole for 2026, this amounts to mortgaging the future for a 2025 run. I’m here to point out that the situation isn’t nearly as dire as suggested.

(All numbers below from OverTheCap)

The Vikings are indeed nearly $50M in the hole in terms of effective cap space for 2026. That number includes the new team cap number, carryover, the estimate for the rookie contracts, and filling the roster. While that sounds daunting, it can be managed.

Three relatively painless cuts in terms of on-the-field play will shave ~$30M off that number: Kelly ($12.1M), Hargrave ($11M), and Aaron Jones ($7.2M).

The remaining amount, and more for any free agents, can be handled by extensions (O’Neill) or salary to bonus conversions. Theoretically, conversions for only 4 players (Murphy, Greenard, Jefferson, and Darrisaw) could yield $67M. Obviously it would become problematic in future years to defer that much in the way of cap hits, but it shows just how much flexibility there is.

Additionally, the team has very few key unrestricted free agents. I might argue that Jalen Nailor is the top priority, which tells you something."

I think this is basically right. The Vikings also could save about 19m if they cut O'Neil instead of extending him, with only about a 4m cap hit. So there are lots of ways for the 2026 team to look.

[gunnarthor]

4 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

When?  When they replaced a $35MM+ QB with a draft pick and a 95th-percentile-outcome reclamation project to get out of a smaller hole?  Those levers aren't available to pull this year.  Ironically, Darnold made the cost of future potential Darnolds go up, as shown by Daniel Jones' market last year

Yeah, at the start of KAM's tenure, we were about 20m over the cap, fourth worst in the league. He was able to fix it, sign good free agents, and keep the team competitive. Lots of reasons to think he has built a lot of cap flexibility into this team as well. 

[Mike Sixel]

2 minutes ago, gunnarthor said:

Kelly and O'Neil will likely be gone, although I might be wrong on O'Neil. From the internet - 

"There has been a lot of talk about how the underperformance at the QB position this year is especially troubling because the team went all-in on free agency to take advantage of the rookie scale QB contract. The common refrain is that since the team is $50M in the hole for 2026, this amounts to mortgaging the future for a 2025 run. I’m here to point out that the situation isn’t nearly as dire as suggested.

(All numbers below from OverTheCap)

The Vikings are indeed nearly $50M in the hole in terms of effective cap space for 2026. That number includes the new team cap number, carryover, the estimate for the rookie contracts, and filling the roster. While that sounds daunting, it can be managed.

Three relatively painless cuts in terms of on-the-field play will shave ~$30M off that number: Kelly ($12.1M), Hargrave ($11M), and Aaron Jones ($7.2M).

The remaining amount, and more for any free agents, can be handled by extensions (O’Neill) or salary to bonus conversions. Theoretically, conversions for only 4 players (Murphy, Greenard, Jefferson, and Darrisaw) could yield $67M. Obviously it would become problematic in future years to defer that much in the way of cap hits, but it shows just how much flexibility there is.

Additionally, the team has very few key unrestricted free agents. I might argue that Jalen Nailor is the top priority, which tells you something."

I think this is basically right. The Vikings also could save about 19m if they cut O'Neil instead of extending him, with only about a 4m cap hit. So there are lots of ways for the 2026 team to look.

Sure, but they have to replace all those starters...with whom? They'll be lucky to get 2 in the draft. So that's money that needs to be spent, to stay even.....and you are kicking the can down the line for a bet on McCarthy....

And then they need the QB to go from worst in the NFL to average or better. 

[The Great Hambino]

Just now, gunnarthor said:

Yeah, at the start of KAM's tenure, we were about 20m over the cap, fourth worst in the league. He was able to fix it, sign good free agents, and keep the team competitive. Lots of reasons to think he has built a lot of cap flexibility into this team as well. 

So a much smaller hole where they didn't have to upgrade the QB.

You are vastly underselling how difficult it's going to be for them to get compliant and remain competitive next year

[gunnarthor]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Sure, but they have to replace all those starters...with whom? They'll be lucky to get 2 in the draft. So that's money that needs to be spent, to stay even.....and you are kicking the can down the line for a bet on McCarthy....

And then they need the QB to go from worst in the NFL to average or better. 

I mean, I think they keep Redmond (who is a ERFA) over Hargrave, Mason over Jones, Brandel/Jurgens over Kelly. I think they can also move on from Allen (Rodriguez/TID) without much of a problem. 

I mean at the end of the day, JJ is key. He needs to play better. There is no system where a team can win with a ****** QB anymore. But the Vikings seem to have the cap room to make the other spots better through other means.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

I mean, I think they keep Redmond (who is a ERFA) over Hargrave, Mason over Jones, Brandel/Jurgens over Kelly. I think they can also move on from Allen (Rodriguez/TID) without much of a problem. 

I mean at the end of the day, JJ is key. He needs to play better. There is no system where a team can win with a ****** QB anymore. But the Vikings seem to have the cap room to make the other spots better through other means.

The two DTs and the C this GM just signed....I agree...but that doesn't instill confidence. 

[gunnarthor]

2 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

The two DTs and the C this GM just signed....I agree...but that doesn't instill confidence. 

Replacing them with in-house options the same GM found? I get that we don't see KAM the same way so I suppose it's best to just see what develops. Maybe we get lucky, the Vikings run off six straight wins and next season looks a lot more hopeful. 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

Replacing them with in-house options the same GM found? I get that we don't see KAM the same way so I suppose it's best to just see what develops. Maybe we get lucky, the Vikings run off six straight wins and next season looks a lot more hopeful. 

I'd take that! I'm not sure those options (esp the OL) are even average.....

[Vanimal46]

44 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

How do they even improve the team this offseason?  I don' think they should, but they can't trade Jefferson even if they wanted to - $46MM dead cap if they do.  Negative $51MM in effective cap space per Over The Cap as things sit currently.  Trading Jefferson adds to that deficit

The biggest impact that can be made is drafting and development. This team desperately needs cheap young talent from the draft. It shows up every week how little depth we have. We have a good opportunity with up to 10 draft picks for 2026, but the issue still remains the guy making the picks. 

[gunnarthor]

Honestly, this should be a different thread at this point but before the season, I thought the Vikings were more likely to let Nailor go and keep Addison to go with Jefferson and Felton, long term. Now I wouldn't be surprised if they moved on from Addison and kept Nailor. Good article on the few key free agents we have - 

https://vikingsterritory.com/2025/news/top_news/3-vikings-free-agents-2026

 

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, gunnarthor said:

Honestly, this should be a different thread at this point but before the season, I thought the Vikings were more likely to let Nailor go and keep Addison to go with Jefferson and Felton, long term. Now I wouldn't be surprised if they moved on from Addison and kept Nailor. Good article on the few key free agents we have - 

https://vikingsterritory.com/2025/news/top_news/3-vikings-free-agents-2026

 

They have to deal Addison, imo. They are NOT a SB team next year, and he'll want number 1 money. No way they can afford that, imo. 

[Aggies7]

36 minutes ago, The Great Hambino said:

Add a 1 to the front of that figure and you might be closer.

Daniel Jones signed for $14.5MM coming off a practice squad

He’s not going to be a free agent though, it would be a trade not a FA signing 

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

They have to deal Addison, imo. They are NOT a SB team next year, and he'll want number 1 money. No way they can afford that, imo. 

Likely only nets them a 2nd or 3rd...I'd try to deal a mid round pick and him for a late first, or 2nd and late pick.

[gunnarthor]

1 minute ago, Mike Sixel said:

Likely only nets them a 2nd or 3rd...I'd try to deal a mid round pick and him for a late first, or 2nd and late pick.

I'm not good at predicting trade value. I could also see a player for player trade instead of picks.

[Mike Sixel]

1 minute ago, gunnarthor said:

I'm not good at predicting trade value. I could also see a player for player trade instead of picks.

I hope they don't deal him for anyone not controlled for at least three years......

[Vanimal46]

KOC could call up his mentor McVay and talk about the challenges of building a young QB... And he'll laugh and say "No s***, that's why I traded for Matt Stafford." 

[Aggies7]

4 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

KOC could call up his mentor McVay and talk about the challenges of building a young QB... And he'll laugh and say "No s***, that's why I traded for Matt Stafford." 

Honestly, the Vikings have had success in the 30+ years I’ve been following with the veteran strategy. McMahon, moon, Cunningham, George, Favre, keenum, cousins, Darnold…all playoff quarterbacks. Should have won two super bowls. But you have to hit on the drafts to make it work.

[The Great Hambino]

6 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

KOC could call up his mentor McVay and talk about the challenges of building a young QB... And he'll laugh and say "No s***, that's why I traded for Matt Stafford." 

It's impressive how his teams have been consistently competitive while basically sitting out Day 1 of the draft for years

[Vanimal46]

In MLB news... Interesting swap of future bad contracts. TEX trades Marcus Siemien to NYM for OF Brandon Nimmo.  

[Mike Sixel]

3 minutes ago, Vanimal46 said:

In MLB news... Interesting swap of future bad contracts. TEX trades Marcus Siemien to NYM for OF Brandon Nimmo.  

Nimmo probably wanted out of socialist NYC :)

[Aggies7]

Kirko 14/20 1 TD 1 INT 118 yds 

[Mike Sixel]

Imagine being a TV executive, and realizing how much money you paid for the "privilege" of showing this afternoon slate?

[Aggies7]

Credit to the cowboys for batting back 

[Mike Sixel]

Unreal 

 

 

[Vanimal46]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Unreal 

 

 

It's not ideal when your young, supposed franchise QB has stats that align with some of the worst QBs in Vikings history, and all time draft busts like JaMarcus Russell. 

[Aggies7]

6 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

Unreal 

 

 

Yikes.

[Aggies7]

Just now, Vanimal46 said:

It's not ideal when your young, supposed franchise QB has stats that align with some of the worst QBs in Vikings history, and all time draft busts like JaMarcus Russell. 

That’s what I mean when I say people will lose their jobs. If there were anything positive to look at, you would be willing to cut some slack. But there’s nothing. And you let a 14 game winner walk for him. Who was evaluating his talent that thought he would work. Was it arrogance?