Is Derek Shelton Doomed to Repeat His Pirates Roster Experience with the Twins?

[Nate Palmer]

As Derek Shelton takes over as manager of the Minnesota Twins, there have been plenty of questions swirling about whether he could manage the Pittsburgh Pirates to success. How will he do that in his new role with the Twins? Derek Falvey has stated that he believes this Twins roster is much different than the Pittsburgh Pirates team Shelton was charged with leading. At first blush, much of Twins territory recoiled at that statement, seeing how far this roster has fallen and how much payroll has been slashed. The Twins have felt very Pirate-y very quickly, but maybe there is some truth to Falvey’s words. 

The Hitters
The 2020 Pirates had some names that are now recognizable, but their 2020 versions were much younger and very different from the current versions we know. In the shortened 2020 COVID season, then 23-year-old rookie Ke’Bryan Hayes led the Pirates offensively with a 1.9 bWAR in just 24 games producing a 1.124 OPS. Next were a pair of the most elderly of the Pirates starting group, starting with the 30-year-old catcher Jacob Stallings, who posted a 1.0 bWAR, and 28 the 28-year-old infielder Adam Frazier, who turned in a 0.8 bWAR. 

Only three Pirates were able to produce an OPS above .700 for 2020. Those players being the aforementioned Hayes and Stallings, as well as Collin Moran. While the stats will always look strange when looking back at the 2020 season because of the smaller sample size of the shortened season, the Twins come out looking much better offensively, even after what is considered a failed season in 2025. 

Byron Buxton clearly leads the way with his 4.9 bWAR and .878 OPS. The Twins had their own rookie climb the leaderboard in Luke Keaschall with a 2.0 bWAR and .827 OPS. Of the players currently on the Twins roster, Buxton, Keaschall, Ryan Jeffers, Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, and Kody Clemens each posted an .OPS above .700. In a limited time, Austin Martin and Ryan Fitzgerald did as well. 

Beyond the performance level in 2025, the Twins will have a mix of young players ready to hit the majors (more on that later) as well as a much more established set of veteran players than the Pirates did. As the Twins stand today, they will have Jeffers, Buxton, Wallner, Larnach, Clemens, and James Outman as potential regulars, all playing in their 28th year or older. 

The Pitchers
At first glance, the pitching staffs are very similar in many ways. A young Mitch Keller was in place to lead the way for the Pirates, while the Twins have their own star in Joe Ryan. In 2020, Keller posted a 157 ERA+, and Ryan trailed with a 125 ERA+. The Twins next starter in line, Pablo Lopez, in his limited action, posted a 156 ERA+. 

The Pirates had three starters behind Keller, who posted an ERA+ above 100 in Steven Brault (134), Joe Musgrove (117), and Chad Kuhl (106). The Twins didn’t quite keep the same pace, with only Simeon Woods-Richardson (107) joining Lopez and Ryan with an ERA+ above 100. While many production numbers between the two rotations seem similar, the Twins depth goes deeper than the Pirates did in 2020. Although there are still many injury and performance concerns amongst the likes of Bailey Ober, David Festa, and Zebby Matthews, there will hopefully be depth there for the Twins and Shelton to lean on. 

It is almost impossible to evaluate the Twins bullpen at this point. One advantage the Pirates had in 2020 was veteran Richard Rodriguez, who locked down the back end of the bullpen. Something the Twins do not have at this point in the offseason as they look forward to 2026. 

Prospects
If the Twins roster hasn’t distanced itself from the 2020 Pirates by the players on the active roster, it is in the farm system that separation seems to be found. The Pirates had only two top-100 prospects according to MLB.com in 2020: Mitch Keller (39) and Oneil Cruz (64). What is good for the Pirates is that in a world where prospects often fail, both Keller and Cruz turned into productive major leaguers. 

In the most recent update, the Twins placed four players in MLB.com’s top 100. Walker Jenkins (10), Kaelen Culpepper (52), Eduardo Tait (57), and Emmanuel Rodriguez (69). Out of that group, two, if not three, of those on the list are within realistic striking distance of playing in the majors in 2026. Jenkins and Rodriguez are very close; Culpepper may be a long shot, but it is still possible he gets a call in 2026, while Tait will require a bit more seasoning in the minors. 

Prospects do not always produce in the way they are projected, but the Twins have a strong group coming up, and Shelton will have the opportunity to usher these top 100 prospects, among others, into the big leagues. 

Even though it felt a little crazy at first, Falvey seems right in his assessment that the Pirates roster Shelton took over “had a lot less talent on the roster than what we (the Twins) have right now that he’s (Shelton) is walking into.” With Buxton leading the offense, a good core of starting pitchers, and prospects ready to make the leap to the majors, the Twins, on paper, look like they are in a better starting spot than Shelton’s first go around as a manager with the Pirates. The real question now will be, not just how they line up against the 2020 Pirates, but how well they can perform against 2026 MLB competition. 

 

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[rv78]

Falvey sells hype. Delivers disappointment. It's been going on for 9 years. I don't have much hope it will suddenly change just because Shelton is the Manager. Are the Twins a better team than the Pirates? Maybe, Does that mean they will automatically play like it? No. 

[twinstalker]

Well, yeah to the title question.  Where have you been?

[twinsfansd]

5 hours ago, rv78 said:

Falvey sells hype. Delivers disappointment. It's been going on for 9 years. I don't have much hope it will suddenly change just because Shelton is the Manager. Are the Twins a better team than the Pirates? Maybe, Does that mean they will automatically play like it? No. 

My belief is that if you have no faith that your team has no chance and no future, why bother to watch and why bother to participate in this venue. We might all be better off.

[David HK]

Yes.

[rv78]

18 hours ago, twinsfansd said:

My belief is that if you have no faith that your team has no chance and no future, why bother to watch and why bother to participate in this venue. We might all be better off.

It is because I care! My team is being run by an idiot who thinks he is the smartest man in the room. It is my place to vent and voice my opinion. It is called "free speech". I will always believe they have a future, but every year with Falvey in charge, that future is just another year down the road. I'm getting old, my time for another Championship is running out. It has been 34 years since 1991. 9 years ago Falvine said they were going to build a perrenial contender. It has been anything but that. He's proven it was a lie. If you don't like to read the negative then why bother to participate in this venue? I don't tell anyone to buzz off. You shouldn't either.

[ashbury]

13 hours ago, rv78 said:

My team is being run by an idiot who thinks he is the smartest man in the room. 

I had an unplanned/spontaneous occasion to talk with Falvey one-on-one for about five minutes, a couple of years ago, and I think I posted about it before.  I found him personable and appropriately humble.  He listened to what I brought him, admitted it was over his head*, and then referred me to an appropriate underling who in turn was well enough versed to understand what I was talking about**.

But then I didn't lead off by telling him "your a idot."  Perhaps that's why he gave me the time of day rather than brush me off summarily.

I imagine the narrative, though, will latch on to Falvey now being exposed by ashbury as an analytics fraud!!!1!!11!!!!!!!!!eleventy!!

Evidence to the contrary comes and goes, the narrative lives on.

 

* Despite the stereotypes thrown about, I don't think Falvey's got an MBA and almost certainly not as a Quant, he's not a deep-dive statistician or analytics specialist, and I expect he'd be the first to tell you so.

** Which was, for anyone about to ask me, to learn whether they were aware of the techniques used by portfolio managers when, say, allocating the investments in 401K account, since baseball contracts could be viewed as a portfolio of assets with a universe of other assets to potentially invest in.