Gleeman: Buxton/Sano vs. past top prospect duos

[TheLeviathan]

Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

 

What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.

 

This is just way too much generalization. If your point is true some evidence/direct analysis would help. I pull up those four and see BJ Upton killing AAA pitching at 19 and Delmon skipping the minors almost altogether. So it's for me to take your position on fairly without deeper analysis.

[2wins87]

Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

 

What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.

 

Did you actually look at their minor league numbers? Like Nick said Upton did dominate at every level of the minors. Delmon dominated A ball as an 18 year old (albeit with his characteristically bad plate discipline), skipped to AA as a 19 year old and continued to put up the same numbers there. The point is that the step up to the major leagues is bigger than any other that a prospect will make. Even top prospects who perform at every level of the minors don't always do it so well. Having a floor of a productive major league starter isn't such a bad thing. For the record I think they are both going to be significantly better.

 

If you want to talk about ceilings, how about Willie Mays for Buxton and maybe Reggie Jackson with a more walks for Sano.

[CharacterGroove]

Man a lot of you guys are disappointing me, let me tell you why its insane to compare duos like BJ Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas to Buxton/Sano .

 

What have Buxton/Sano done throughout their lives that Upton/Young and Hosmer/Moustakas didn't? Buxton/Sano have dominated every league they have played in, they have been dominant in baseball at every age in every league. They put up big numbers everywhere they go, something the other 2 pairs didn't do. All 4 of the players from those 2 pairs weren't nearly as dominant in the minors(Especialy in the first couple years) as Buxton/Sano. Most top 10 prospects that become busts are those type of guys that kinda come out of nowhere later in the minors(Not really out of nowhere but kinda). The Guys like Mauer and Trout who dominate right away in the minors are the ones who become stars. Buxton and Sano are both gonna be great, especialy Buxton. Seriously you have to look at a players track record from there first year in the minors.

 

That all makes sense if you ignore the fact that Upton and Young crushed as 18 to 20 year olds.

[2wins87]

I really do not buy what BA has to say about rankings. I suspect that Harmon Killebrew (arguably the best position player to wear a Twins/Senators uniform) would not have made that list because he was lacking a couple of tools (D and Speed). Also, the best pitcher to wear a Twins/Senators uniform (Walter Johnson) would probably not have made their list because he had only one pitch (fastball) so he would be doomed to a middle reliever ceiling...

I'm not saying BA is the authority on rating prospects, but you dislike them because of how you suspect they would have rated guys that played over half a decade ago? How is that logical?

 

Also, I can think of one guy who's dominated the majors with basically one pitch in recent years and that's Mariano Rivera, I think it's reasonable to be skeptical of most guys with only one pitch in this era.

 

2 words why I really dislike the "floor" comparables when talking about prospects:

 

Bo Jackson

 

Sano's floor (and everyone's) is Bo Jackson. But Bo Jackson not making it to the majors before the injury....

 

Are you saying Sano or Buxton might get injured playing football? Seems unlikely to me

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

Comparing them to prior prospect duos is fun but a little silly. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare Buxton to other #1 prospects and Sano to other #3 prospects? That wouldn't tell us much either but at least you're comparing them to a larger pool of prospects.

 

It's less sobering to compare Buxton to Bryce Harper, Jason Heyward, Matt Wieters, Jay Bruce, Delmon Young, Joe Mauer, Mark Teixeira, Josh Hamilton, JD Drew, Ben Greive, Andruw Jones, A-Rod, Cliff Floyd, Chipper Jones.

 

Or Sano to Mike Trout, Jesus Montero, Giancarlo Stanton, Colby Rasmus, Delmon Young, Brandon Wood, Jose Reyes, Hank Blalock, Corey Patterson, Eric Chavez, Adrian Beltre, Ruben Rivera, Chipper Jones, Jeffrey Hammonds, Cliff Floyd, Ryan Klesko.

 

Top 3 prospects work out pretty often. There are some clunkers in there but we all know there are no guarantees. Cross your fingers and hope we get Andruw Jones and Giancarlo Stanton instead of Ben Grieve and Ruben Rivera.

[Red Bull]

That all makes sense if you ignore the fact that Upton and Young crushed as 18 to 20 year olds.

 

What are you/you guys talking about? BJ did not "Crush" when he entered the minors. Yea he was pretty good(.882 OPS) but his number in 139 games weren't amazing, and he got worse in 106(.769 OPS) games the next year even though he was on the same team. So please tell me how that is crushing? And its not like AAA is the best minor league level lol, look at collabello. And Young in Tripple A had less than an .800 OPS in over 130 games... So what are you talking about?

[kab21]

My concern about Sano remains unchanged. He dominated the FSL but the K's were still there. He could be awesome or he could merely be a useful MLB'er. The important part is that he could be awesome. Same goes for Buxton but his floor is a little higher because of defense and the lack of a major red flag.

[tcarlic]

As far as absolute floors go, I think Sano's is probably somewhere between a Mark Reynolds and Adam Dunn. The strikeouts are concerning. Reynolds was a 20-30% strikeout guy in the minors but like Sano (and unlike Delmon) knows how to take a walk. I think we would have to be a bit disappointed if Sano turned out like Reynolds or even Dunn, but his power is comparable, and if he can hit even a little better you're already looking at a pretty valuable hitter.

 

For Buxton I think a BJ Upton floor may be a bit ungenerous (which if you ignore this year still looks pretty good). Upton was a super athletic prospect, but Buxton is a step above, he's got Willie Mays like athleticism. I think his floor is maybe Upton's bat with better defense and probably a few more infield hits. If his bat is better then look out.

 

 

Adam Dunn has hit 430 HR in the majors. If Sano hits 300 HR, I think everyone would be ecstatic considering that only Harmon has hit more than 293. I would take Adam Dunn. Batting average is only one stat. The dude can hit bombs and that is what he will be in the lineup to do.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Comparing them to prior prospect duos is fun but a little silly. Wouldn't it make more sense to compare Buxton to other #1 prospects and Sano to other #3 prospects? That wouldn't tell us much either but at least you're comparing them to a larger pool of prospects.

 

But 1 and 3 aren't quite their "true" rankings for comparison either. Those are midseason rankings, after higher ranked prospects have been promoted but before the draft and international signings have been added, right?

 

Maybe it's just me, but I will trust these rankings and comparisons a lot more if they can finish strong in 2013 and maintain these rankings going into 2014.

[UCLA_YANKEE_COLA]

But 1 and 3 aren't quite their "true" rankings for comparison either. Those are midseason rankings, after higher ranked prospects have been promoted but before the draft and international signings have been added, right?

 

Maybe it's just me, but I will trust these rankings and comparisons a lot more if they can finish strong in 2013 and maintain these rankings going into 2014.

 

Right, the rankings don't really mean much. I won't trust them until they're both several hundred AB's into the big leagues. But using the same exercise as Gleeman (comparing prospects at their current ranking) is slightly more useful if you look at them as individuals instead of as a duo.

[CharacterGroove]

What are you/you guys talking about? BJ did not "Crush" when he entered the minors. Yea he was pretty good(.882 OPS) but his number in 139 games weren't amazing, and he got worse in 106(.769 OPS) games the next year even though he was on the same team. So please tell me how that is crushing? And its not like AAA is the best minor league level lol, look at collabello. And Young in Tripple A had less than an .800 OPS in over 130 games... So what are you talking about?

 

Upton's OPS was .915 as a 19-year-old (in AA & AAA) Up from the .821 OPS in his first full year of professional ball. Buxton is 19 years old.

 

I'll let you look up Young's numbers through ages 18 to 20 (Sano is 20).

[2wins87]

Adam Dunn has hit 430 HR in the majors. If Sano hits 300 HR, I think everyone would be ecstatic considering that only Harmon has hit more than 293. I would take Adam Dunn. Batting average is only one stat. The dude can hit bombs and that is what he will be in the lineup to do.

 

That's true, we probably shouldn't be disappointed with a similar career. Dunn's value according to WAR has been dragged down a lot by poor defense, which Sano's may be too, but hopefully not by as much. If we look just at offensive numbers we would have to be pretty happy with that, though I'm not sure Sano will necessarily walk as much as Dunn does, so his floor is probably still probably lower, though that's still a floor which we should expect him to better.

[DaveW]

Every time a prospect strikes out I drop them 5+ spots in my personal rankings

[Monkeypaws]

I'd be happy if we ended up with another Puckett and Gaetti.

 

Those guys both only spent 3 seasons in the minors, although they were a bit older.

[Kirby Puckett]

Even though Sano is hitting under .200, he still has a slugging % of .500, which is pretty impressive. The Twins don't care what he bats at Double-A, they won't promote him to Triple A this season no matter how well he does.