Trevor Larnach is Quietly Having Another Good Season, but Platoon Splits Hide It

[Greggory Masterson]

6 hours ago, NYCTK said:

I agree he shouldn't be hitting against LHP but that doesn't suddenly make him a good player. There's also the unfortunate fact that he's a bad athlete that plays a poor outfield and is a poor baserunner. 

He's a perennial 1.5 WAR ceiling player making him a good bench player, not a core player. 

 

6 hours ago, Linus said:

Larnach is the definition of an average hitter even when getting protected against lefties. He’s a sub par outfielder who is also slow. The Twins desperately need an infusion of speed and defense in the outfield. Larnachs spot is a great place to start. Unfortunately this would be an off season transition. 

I'm gonna push back against this a little. Larnach against righties is first on the team in batting average, second in OBP, and third in slugging. His wRC+ against righties is 127 per FanGraphs. That's good performance at the plate. Yes, he's not good defensively, but he's still a fine player. I think it's possible to see him as an average player and a good, valuable bat simultaneously. He's not someone they should be actively looking to replace. He's more of a solid player for now, hopefully someone takes his place at some point, but they're not in any danger starting him 70% of games in a corner or at DH. He doesn't need to be a core player to be valuable.

[Linus]

31 minutes ago, Greggory Masterson said:

 

I'm gonna push back against this a little. Larnach against righties is first on the team in batting average, second in OBP, and third in slugging. His wRC+ against righties is 127 per FanGraphs. That's good performance at the plate. Yes, he's not good defensively, but he's still a fine player. I think it's possible to see him as an average player and a good, valuable bat simultaneously. He's not someone they should be actively looking to replace. He's more of a solid player for now, hopefully someone takes his place at some point, but they're not in any danger starting him 70% of games in a corner or at DH. He doesn't need to be a core player to be valuable.

Actually he does. He’s playing left field - a position along with first base where you need to have difference makers with the bat. The Twins offense needs a jump start and those two positions are obvious places to start. Considering his defense and slow speed he really isn’t a “fine” player. He is someone they absolutely need to improve upon of this offense is going to get better. 

[jorgenswest]

In the spring I shared a quote from the manager of the Padres about line up construction. He was asked about an alternating line up. He talked about how it can be helpful to have both left and right handed bats in the lineup and that it can keep a pitcher off rhythm.This would vary by pitcher. It probably is more effective to vary the line up when the pitch mix and approach of the lefty vary more between right and left.

It made me wonder if we are missing an important piece of data. While true that Larnach isn’t hitting well against left handed pitching, what happens the next few right handed batters after Larnach? Does the pitcher lose a little effectiveness? Plate appearances are not a bunch of independent events that can be optimized by spreadsheet. I don’t know the Twins optimal line up against lefties. Long term I think they are a better team if they allow their better left handed bats some starts against lefties. Game day I wonder if they make it too easy for the left handed pitcher to get in a rhythm with the all right handed line up.

 

[Greggory Masterson]

36 minutes ago, Linus said:

Actually he does. He’s playing left field - a position along with first base where you need to have difference makers with the bat. The Twins offense needs a jump start and those two positions are obvious places to start. Considering his defense and slow speed he really isn’t a “fine” player. He is someone they absolutely need to improve upon of this offense is going to get better. 

Personally I would be looking to improve at a position not filled by the team’s 3rd best hitter against righties, 30% above league average. If you want to improve that spot, it’s much easier to just find him a platoon partner.

[DocBauer]

First off, DECADES of data proves LH batters generally struggle against LHP. It's not hard to figure out, they've only seen LHP about 25% of the time. 

A] You don't really know if a LH batter can be OK against LHP until you give them a chance.

B] You also decide at some point WHAT LH bat you have doesn't stink against LHP.

Larnach has been the LH bat who's faced the most LHP because Wallner was injured. That was the basic plan to begin with. You just don't have enough roster room to platoon everywhere. You also can't PH for your LH batters too early or you screw your lineup later in the game.

Despite being generally bad against LHP in his career, Kepler was the guy sent out there daily because he played good defense, and they didn't want to remove him too early in games.

In ADDITION to generally having to place at least 1 LH bat in your lineup due to roster restrictions, there is also the logical theory...as already broached...that making the SP change their approach might make a difference. 

It's only prudent, and necessary, to include at least 1 LH bat in your lineup vs a LHSP. And it's perfectly reasonable and opportunistic to cycle through your LH bats, especially young bats, to find out who can and who can't produce a decent OPS against said LHP. But no matter what, SOMEONE is going to have to be in the lineup unless you want an entire team of RH bats. It's up to time, opportunity, and management to figure it out.

Right NOW, I'd say no to Larnach and yes to Wallner.

As @Riverbrianhas pointed out, it would be a huge mistake to pigeonhole Rodriguez and Jenkins to early.

[Riverbrian]

The splits are real... The platoon advantage is real... The left handed hitter vs left handed pitcher is without question the toughest task of all matchups and the numbers bare that out. It can't be denied. 

But let's not pretend that right handed hitters are stunningly successful against left handers. 

Here are the OPS league average numbers for all players on all teams in 2025:  

LHH vs RHP: .744

RHH vs LHP: .709

RHH vs RHP: .703

LHH vs LHP: .656

Turns out that the right handed hitter vs Left Handers is barely better than the right handed hitter vs right handed pitchers.

Turns out that right handed hitters average 53 points higher than left handers vs lefties. On the other hand (pardon the pun)...  It also turns out that Left Handed hitters average 41 points higher against right handed pitchers. THESE ARE BOTH PLATOON ADVANTAGES let me repeat that... these are both platoon advantages. But our Twins live in fear of the one that exists only 25% of the time. 

As you can all see... It turns out that everybody struggles against left handed pitching.

Left handed pitchers against every hitter regardless of the box the batter stands in produces a league average OPS of .693. While Right Handed pitchers average .723 against all human beings standing on whatever side of the plate. 

Yet we have a front office and Manager that will kill every left handed batter before they can even get their career started and they continue down that path willfully year after year, announcing every off season that they are looking for a right handed outfielder despite having 10 right handed hitters already on the roster so they can continue to cower in fear of the .656 of LHH vs LHP while ignoring the .744 produced by LHH vs RHP. We are so afraid of that low number that occurs 25 percent of the time we are willing to sacrifice the high number 75% of the time by over loading the roster with righties and looking for more. Not just sacrifice the high number that occurs 75% of the time but also sacrifice their young developing left handed hitters in the process. By playing the split right... THEY ARE PLAYING IT WRONG,  

And to make things even worse... Despite the platoon splits that we can all see and I'm sure they have seen them because they sure have overweighted that low .656 number and built a roster that suggests that low .656 is their sole focus. To make things worse. THE TEAM DOESN'T HAVE A SINGLE LEFT HANDED STARTER IN THEIR ROTATION despite a clear 30 point advantage held by left hander pitchers compared to right handed pitchers. As a matter of fact... They haven't had a left handed starter since Dallas Kuechel showed up and made 6 starts in 2023.

If they were so afraid of this split... that they would kill all left handed hitters... then why are they not taking advantage of it on the MOUND!!!

I get it... The Twins care deeply about this... .they do not want left hander hitters facing left handed pitching because .656 is a low number... Does it not work in reverse? We don't want left handed pitching working the majority of innings as starters to put the shoe on the other hand (Pardon the Pun).  I mean C'mon, Let's get real, we believe in this.. why don't we attack our opponents with the same problem we are so steadfastly committed to solving and compromising prospects to solve. They overweight this set of data so drastically that it negates every other data set known to man. Good against sinkers... not good against sinkers... Doesn't matter... He's left handed. Ignore that sinker data stuff, we can't take all these numbers seriously... we gotta focus on what's most important and we will steadfastly adhere to preventing the .656 at all costs. 

And as it turns out... they STAND ALONE in this overweighting of a single platoon advantage that shows its face 25% of the time. NO TEAM IN BASEBALL platoons left handers this severely and absolutely. You all want to fire the front office and burn the manager at the stake but you'll stand here and defend the right to hire cheap right handed crap to continue the year by year compromising of developing left handed hitters. Larnach can't hit lefties. Case closed. 

But... Hey... that's alright. Keep bringing in that LEFTY KILLER for 4 million dollars. Let's Pay Larnach 8 million in arbitration next year and handcuff him to that lefty killer for 4 million. That's a good idea for a team with 6 pre-arb players and a limited budget. 

I know all this stuff is boring. Larnach can't hit lefties. Wallner can't hit lefties... Margot can. That .656 is a low number... Case closed. 

In consideration of that .656 number... Wouldn't it be funny if the player with the most at bats against the left handers in all of baseball in 2025 was a left handed hitter. It is funny and I'm rolling on the floor. It is a left hander... a pure left hander with a .572 OPS against left handed pitchers. Jarren Duran with 136 AB's. Wait a second... the top 6 batters with the most AB's vs left handed pitchers are all left handed hitters.. Durren, Devers, Ohtani, Wood, Kwan and Schwarber are 1 through 6. Nootbaar, Tucker, Arraez, Donovan, Yelich, Henderson, PCA, Lowe and Albies are all in the top 20. That's 15 left handed hitters out of the top 20 in AB's against left handed pitchers. 10 of those 15 are below the .656. I'll bold the 10 players. 

I get it... The Red Sox, Guardians, Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, Orioles, Cubs, Nats and Braves probably don't have access to the same data our Twins have.  

I don't know if Larnach will ever be able to hit left handers. But I do know this... He got 23 scattered PA's against them in 2024 and 21 scattered PA's against them in 2023. Go ahead and tell me how this Trevor Larnach guy is complicit in this tragedy. Go ahead and point at the number and say see... look Riverbrian... those 44 AB's say it all.. Case Closed. Go ahead and tell me that he had poor splits in the minors... That's great... Case Closed... Let's take a 23 year old, dip him in cement because there is no chance of him improving at anything from age 24 to 27.  I know we have coaches but let's be honest... they don't do anything. They are playing cards in the clubhouse. The players are not in the cage working on things. they are playing XBox in the hotel. Players don't improve from 24 to 27. What they are at 23... is what they will be forever. I get it. 

Jenkins... Emma... You think they will be treated different. We'll see. 

I'll wrap this up with this... and I will mean it with 100% sincerity. 

I am the worlds biggest Twins fan. If I'm not the biggest... I'm top 5.

As much as I have devoted my life to this organization. As much as I base the enjoyment of my summer on the ups and downs of the Twins. If I had a son who was a left handed hitter projected to be drafted in the top three rounds. I would drop on my knees and pray that the Twins DON'T select him. At least not by this front office.  

 

 

 

 

[Riverbrian]

13 hours ago, Greggory Masterson said:

Personally I would be looking to improve at a position not filled by the team’s 3rd best hitter against righties, 30% above league average. If you want to improve that spot, it’s much easier to just find him a platoon partner.

Your grand plan to create these 6 platoon dance partners in a pretty package will last until the injuries come and make it impossible to maintain the pretty package clean line separation. It takes one injury to make a platoon specialist every day necessary against both hands and not so special anymore.  

 

[twinstalker]

Amazing concept that Larnach is bad vs lhp and that it's made no sense to use him that way all year.  You would have had to watch him or read box scores or look at splits for the entire year to realize this is affecting his stats overall.

Now do Jacque Jones. :-)   (sorry, sounds mean, but it's so obvious -- article needs to be about "why")