Is Byron Buxton Running Earlier in Counts?

[Matthew Trueblood]

Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-Imagn Images

If (like me) you're a long-time listener to Gleeman and the Geek, the mountain that grew from a molehill in Monday's Patreon episode probably felt familiar. As a listener since 2011 (although not quite as consistent a one as I used to be), I can describe it pretty neatly, in broad strokes. We'll get down to the details of this latest one in just a moment. Here's what happens, and happened.

1. Aaron says something, usually on a topic he had plotted as part of the outline of the episode.
2. John responds and muses about something related to that topic.
3. Aaron hears something more than John actually says, and away we go. 
4. The whole thing goes off the rails as Aaron tries to debunk or rebut an argument John was never really making.

This is not, of course, a complaint. The above makes for good radio, because Aaron is probably at his best when he's worked up over nothing, and John is excellent at laughing along and not really defusing Aaron, even when (if the goal were to do a tight hour of focused Twins talk) he probably should. This happens about once a quarter, or at least, that's how often I hear it; I don't catch every episode now that they make a few of them each week.

I caught Monday's show, though, and we got a real humdinger of a sequence out of these two on the subject of Byron Buxton's basestealing.

1. Aaron was trying (as he later explicitly said) to recite some facts about Buxton's superb 2025 campaign and elicit from John a simple co-sign. 
2. John had clearly been thinking, independently, about how nice it was to see Buxton running so much more, and specifically, running more right after he reached base. He mentioned as much, including saying he hoped to study this soon and see whether the trend was gaining steam. (This article is me betting John's not going to get to that soon. @John Bonnes, if I'm stealing your thunder, sorry.) It's classic sports podcasting, and classic improv. He was trying to "yes, and" Aaron's take on Buxton.
3. Aaron, not having gotten quite the unvarnished agreement he was seeking and worried that the message ("Byron Buxton: good") was getting lost, heard in John's tangential observation a note of criticism or mitigation, which John didn't intend.
4. The whole thing went off the rails as Aaron tried to debunk John's criticism of Buxton and, in fact, to rebut the idea that it's even good to steal bases, or at least to steal them early in counts.

Well, look. John is a busy guy. In fact, as an employee of John's, I happen to know that John had an editorial meeting and a radio appearance yesterday afternoon and has a bunch of payroll stuff to do this week, before the holiday on Friday. And in theory, I'm a busy guy, too, but I have no control over payroll and my job has a lot to do with, you know, answering questions about baseball—questions like, "Is Byron Buxton running more early in counts?" So, let's do that.

Yes. He is.

Alright, it's more complicated than that. But if you wanted to get a quick-dry answer, that would be the right one. From 2022-24, Byron Buxton stole four total bases on the first pitch of at-bats, and one base on a 1-0 count. This year, in just half a season, he's already equaled both of those figures. He did steal four bases in 0-1 counts and five in 1-1 counts over the last three seasons, and he has just one total steal across those two counts this year, but right away, on the first pitch, he's going much more this year than in the past. 

John specifically noted that he sensed Buxton running more right away in the last month or so. So noted, so confirmed. Buxton did steal on a 2-2 pitch (and that to the second batter after he'd reached first) Saturday against the Tigers, but his steal on Friday came on the first pitch of a plate appearance. So did one against the Brewers last Sunday. As John said, counting only steals is an imperfect approach, because Buxton will somewhat often take off on pitches the batter fouls off, but there's at least a modicum of evidence that he's running earlier in counts. 

Of course, running "early" means more than just running before the hitter gets deep in the count. It's also much more valuable to advance to second base (or, if one is already on second, to third) with nobody or one out than with two. For some reason, Aaron cast some doubt on this premise during the show; he was really thrown off by John taking the conversation in this direction. But the premise is unassailable. Here's a run expectancy table for 2025, courtesy of the great Ben Clemens at FanGraphs. 

Because there are more chances to be driven in (and the risk of a double play is drastically reduced, and the potential for a manufactured run is greater), getting from first to second with nobody out is worth about 0.25 runs. With one out, it's worth about 0.19 runs. With two outs, it's worth just 0.10 runs. Assuming the odds of being caught are about the same regardless of the number of outs (and, in Buxton's case, assuming the odds of being caught are quite low, no matter what), you absolutely want to make your move early. Buxton is doing that this year, to a degree he hasn't even approximated since 2017. He's already stolen six bases with nobody out in the inning this season. He only stole a total of four bases with nobody out from 2022-24, and the only other campaign in which he's stolen more than three bases with zero outs was 2017, when he stole 10.

All of this is, of course, an outgrowth of Buxton being more aggressive overall. He's attempted steals in 3.2% of his opportunities this year, according to Statcast, up from 1.5% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2023. Here, "opportunities" are defined as pitches thrown while the player is on base, without a runner in front of them on the bases, so while this isn't isolating early counts, the fact that his attempt rate has doubled means Buxton is sticking around for fewer pitches before taking off. He's also making a bigger difference by running than ever before; his five high-leverage steals this year are already the most he's logged since 2019.

I can't quite document that Buxton is being disproportionately more aggressive early in counts than later, but I don't think that's what John was saying, anyway. The claim, it seems to me, was that Buxton's improved health and new role as the leadoff man has led him to take off more promptly once he reaches base, trying to press the issue; avoid double plays; get into scoring position for the fairly low-power heart of the Twins order; and create a spark. Those things do matter, and indeed, Buxton is doing them more this year—perhaps especially since he moved to the top of the batting order. He's taking off before teammates can fall behind in counts trying to give him a pitch on which to run, and he's doing so while the inning is young enough that they might bring him around via well-placed ground balls or flyouts.

Taken together (and accounting for other runners, the batter striking out during one of his steals, and his advancing on a throwing error on another), Buxton's steals have been worth 2.8 runs to the Twins this year. From 2022-24, due both to lower volume and running in less advantageous situations, he added just 1 total run with his steals.

Stealing bases is no longer the exclusive work of young players, but stealing early does seem like a young man's game. It's wonderful to see Buxton taking an extra 90 feet by force, here and there, at the earliest opportunity and when it will open the most chances for his team to create a run. It's even cooler to see it happen at an age when most players have to start being more wily and relying more on the pitcher forgetting about them. It truly does seem as though getting his knee fully cleaned up has given Buxton a rare reset—a second chance at the career that seemed doomed to be perennially blunted by injuries. This time, though Aaron wasn't exactly wrong (on the major points), John was right.

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[Rod Carews Birthday]

I think it's pretty amazing what some improved health in his knees and legs will do for his production.  I'm glad to see him feeling good enough to take off running when he wants to do it, rather than when he feels like he has to do it.  Stealing bases is always kind of a catch 22 situation though.  Because he has such a high success rate, we want him to run more often.  However, this loses sight of the fact that his high success rate might be because he doesn't run all that often, picking and choosing his spots very judiciously.  

One thing that I have noticed with Buxton, especially this year, is that he seems to have morphed from player with insane tools who didn't always seem in control to more of a knowledgeable, smart baseball player who really sees and understands everything around him.  It's also probably easier to do that when your legs don't hurt all the time.  

 

[Doctor Gast]

The traditional lead-off hitting approach is still the best. & that's getting on base, taking the extra base & sparking rallies. Buck has to steal on early counts because too many Twins' hitters like to swing early & not allow Buck to steal that needed base before.

[Road trip]

Given his success rate, Buxton should run early and often.

Larnach has pretty much settled in to the #2 hole in the lineup, at least against rhp.

I'm ok with Larnach in this spot, but he has a weakness:  2024:  12 GIDP (2nd on the team).  2025: 8 GIDP and counting....   

Frankly, with Larnach hitting 2nd and Buxton standing on 1b I cringe with every swing where Buxton isn't running...

[AceWrigley]

"Ewwww its one of those players from Minny-soda, I'm not touchin' it."

[Matthew Trueblood]

2 hours ago, Bigfork Twins Guy said:

Could the number of times he runs be related to him getting on base more this season than other seasons?  He is walking more than he ever has this year.

It's certainly not hurting anything, but that attempt rate—twice as high as in any of the last three seasons—tells us he's running more per opportunity, not just stealing more total bases because of increased playing time or an improved OBP.

[jkcarew]

It’s ironic to me that in the year where they finally just cut him loose…no DH silliness, no excessive rest days, letting him go on the basepaths…that he’s having his most consistently effective AND healthy year of his career. (knocking on wood, with fingers crossed).