Why Joe Ryan’s Fastball is One of Baseball’s Most Valuable Pitches

[Cody Christie]

Image courtesy of © Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images

When fans envision the modern game, it is one dominated by triple-digit four-seamers and knee-buckling offspeed pitches. However, Joe Ryan has never been one to follow the crowd. His fastball is emerging as one of the most valuable pitches in Major League Baseball this season. Despite a slight dip in velocity, Ryan has enhanced the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball, making it a cornerstone of his pitching arsenal.

In 2025, Ryan's four-seam fastball boasts a +12 run value, ranking second in MLB behind only Houston's Hunter Brown. Only four four-seamers have been worth 10+ runs this season, and only three non-fastballs have met that threshold. Opponents are hitting just .168 against Ryan’s fastball, with a slugging percentage of .308. Last season, batters posted a .193 batting average and a .378 slugging percentage when facing his four-seamer. These metrics underscore the pitch's dominance and its critical role in Ryan's success this year.

Increased Usage and Effectiveness
Overusing his fastball was one of the biggest criticisms of Ryan in his early professional career. In the minor leagues, he could mow down batters with a fastball coming from a unique angle that was tough for hitters to square up. In recent years, he has focused on developing his secondary pitches, allowing him to rely less on his fastball, and the overall results have been effective. However, this season, there have been some strategic changes to his primary pitch. 

After reducing his fastball usage to below 50% for the first time in his career last season (48.3%), Ryan has reverted to relying on it more heavily in 2025, throwing it 56.4% of the time. This increased usage correlates with enhanced performance metrics, including a higher whiff rate (28.5%) and put-away percentage (26.2%), indicating that the pitch is more prevalent and effective in securing outs.

Deceptive Mechanics Over Velocity
Interestingly, Ryan's fastball has lost nearly a full mile per hour in velocity, averaging 93.1 mph compared to 94.0 last season. Last season’s Velo jump was a career-high, and this year’s velocity is still higher than what he averaged from 2021-23. Ryan dealt with a shoulder issue in the second half of last season, so the velocity decrease could be an attempt to keep his shoulder healthier. 

However, his velocity decrease hasn't hindered its effectiveness. Ryan's unique arm angle and consistent spin rate contribute to the pitch's deception, making it difficult for hitters to track and connect with. The pitch's movement with 13.4 inches of rise and 12.7 inches of tail, further enhancing its elusiveness. 

Ryan has changed his arm angle slightly this season with some other positive results. Last season, his arm angle was at 26 degrees, and this season, it is closer to 24 degrees. With the change, he is getting 5.0 inches more tail compared to 4.2 inches in 2024. In 2023, he was only getting 2.9 inches of tail with a 27-degree arm angle, pointing to how Twins coaches have continued to develop him at the big-league level. 

Ryan's success isn't solely due to the physical attributes of his fastball because his strategic use of the pitch also plays a significant role. He effectively elevates the fastball in the strike zone, disrupting hitters' timing and inducing swings and misses. This approach, combined with precise command, allows him to exploit hitters' weaknesses and maximize the pitch's impact. 

While the four-seam fastball is his primary weapon, Ryan's diverse pitch mix keeps hitters off balance, including a sweeper, split-finger, sinker, slider, and curveball. His sweeper, in particular, has shown increased horizontal movement this season, adding another layer of complexity to his pitching strategy. Last month, he threw one sweeper that may have been the best pitch in Twins history. His sweeper has a 40.7 Whiff% and a 21.4 Put Away%, making it a perfect pairing with his elite four-seamer. 

Ryan's four-seam fastball exemplifies how a pitch doesn't need overpowering velocity to be effective. Through strategic usage, deceptive mechanics, and precise command, Ryan has transformed his fastball into one of the most valuable pitches in baseball this season. As he continues to refine his approach, his fastball remains a key factor in his success and a testament to the art of pitching.

Do you believe Ryan’s fastball is among baseball’s best despite the velocity drop? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

 

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[Trov]

I think what this article really highlights is his developing other pitches really allowed him to go back to using his fastball more and have it be more effective.  The hitters need to at least respect his other pitches which allows him to use the fastball to great effectiveness.  I think what also helps when he throws his fastball down not just up.  It used to be if the ball was down it was always offspeed. He seems to mix up the location more. 

[Patzky]

Hey thanks for blacking out this article in California. 😝

[DJL44]

I think he should make an All-Star team this season.

[Tiantwindup]

I have often wondered about the obsession with velocity in today's game.  There is ample suggestion that the increase in velocity and focus on max effort is responsible for the increase in TJ and other arm issues across MLB.

The Twins have shown skill in increasing the velocity of many, many pitchers that they have developed.  Is it possible for them to use Ryan as a model and 'develop' them to have more deception and movement or is Ryan a unicorn?  If they were able to do so would this provide a means to keep them on the mound (the hypothesis here is that arm health would be positively impacted by doing so)?  Could overall pitcher health/longevity be enhanced by a shift from velocity to deception/movement??