Why Joe Ryan’s Fastball is One of Baseball’s Most Valuable Pitches

When fans envision the modern game, it is one dominated by triple-digit four-seamers and knee-buckling offspeed pitches. However, Joe Ryan has never been one to follow the crowd. His fastball is emerging as one of the most valuable pitches in the majors this season. Despite a slight dip in velocity, Ryan has enhanced the effectiveness of his four-seam fastball, making it a cornerstone of his pitching arsenal.

In 2025, Ryan's four-seam fastball boasts a +12 run value, ranking second in MLB, behind only Houston's Hunter Brown. Only four four-seamers have been worth 10 or more runs this season, and only three non-fastballs have met that threshold. Opponents are hitting just .168 against Ryan’s fastball, with a slugging percentage of .308. Last season, batters posted a .193 batting average and a .378 slugging percentage when facing his four-seamer. These metrics underscore the pitch's dominance and its critical role in Ryan's success this year.

Increased Usage and Effectiveness
Overusing his fastball was one of the biggest criticisms of Ryan in his early professional career. In the minor leagues, he could mow down batters, with a fastball coming from a unique angle that was tough for hitters to square up. In recent years, he has focused on developing his secondary pitches, allowing him to rely less on his heater, and the overall results have been positive. However, this season, there have been some strategic changes to his primary pitch. 

After reducing his fastball usage to less than 50% for the first time in his career last season (48.3%), Ryan has reverted to relying on it more heavily in 2025, throwing it 56.4% of the time. This increased usage correlates with enhanced performance metrics, including a higher whiff rate (28.5%) and put-away percentage (26.2%), indicating that the pitch is more prevalent and effective in securing outs.

Deceptive Mechanics Over Velocity
Interestingly, Ryan's fastball has lost nearly a full mile per hour in velocity, averaging 93.1 mph, compared to 94.0 last season. Last season’s velo jump pushed him to a career-high plateau, and this year’s figure is still higher than what he averaged from 2021-23. Ryan dealt with a shoulder issue in the second half of last season, so the velocity decrease could be an attempt to keep his shoulder healthier. 

However, his velocity decrease hasn't hindered his fastball's effectiveness. Ryan's unique arm angle and consistent spin rate contribute to the pitch's deception, making it difficult for hitters to track and connect with. The pitch's movement (with 13.4 inches of perceived rise and 12.7 inches of tail to the arm side) further enhances its elusiveness. 

Ryan has changed his arm angle slightly this season, with some other positive results. Last season, his arm angle was at 26°. This season, it is closer to 24°. With the change, he is getting 5.0 inches more horizontal movement than an average righty, compared to 4.2 inches in 2024. In 2023, he was only getting 2.9 inches more run than average, with a 27° arm angle, pointing to how Twins coaches have continued to develop him at the big-league level. 

Ryan's success isn't solely due to the physical attributes of his fastball; his strategic use of the pitch also plays a significant role. He effectively elevates the fastball in the strike zone, disrupting hitters' timing and inducing swings and misses. This approach, combined with precise command, allows him to exploit hitters' weaknesses and maximize the pitch's impact. 

While the four-seam fastball is his primary weapon, Ryan's diverse pitch mix (including a sweeper, split-finger, sinker, slider, and curveball) keeps hitters off balance. His sweeper, in particular, has shown increased horizontal movement this season, adding another layer of complexity to his pitching strategy. Last month, he threw one sweeper that may have been the best pitch in Twins history. His sweeper has a 40.7 Whiff% and a 21.4 Put Away%, making it a perfect pairing with his elite four-seamer. 

Ryan's four-seam fastball exemplifies how a pitch doesn't need overpowering velocity to be effective. Through strategic usage, deceptive mechanics, and precise command, Ryan has transformed his fastball into one of the most valuable pitches in baseball this season. As he continues to refine his approach, his fastball remains a key factor in his success and a testament to the art of pitching.

Do you believe Ryan’s fastball is among baseball’s best, despite the velocity drop? Leave a comment and start the discussion.