Zebby Matthews Simplified his Approach. Is it Enough?

[Matt Braun]

Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-Imagn Images

The Twins and Zebby Matthews had a problem. The righty flashed legitimate strikeout potential in 2024, but the whiffs came with a Blylevian barrage of homers; batters found the stands 11 times across just 37 ⅔ major-league frames. That’s a 58-home run pace across 200 innings. And the type of pitch didn’t matter. The fastball? Obliterated. The cutter? Crushed. Spencer Horwitz even put one on the board against a curveball. Tough. If this trend continued, the team would have to hand out helmets and oversized gloves to fans every day when Matthews pitched.

Unless he wanted to waste his prime years on the Saints, something needed to change. Early tendencies in his pitch mix indicate an evolution is currently underway.

Matthews’s curveball and changeup—which accounted for 15% of his offerings in 2024—have been almost fully abandoned this season, in favor of a four-seam/cutter/slider three-piece selection. He’s thrown the hook and the cambio just seven total times in 152 pitches over two starts. That’s probably a good call. The curve yielded a .385 xwOBA last year, and the change sat at a .365. A league-average number is .327. Remember that you read wOBA like OBP, meaning Matthews turned hitters into Bobby Witt Jr., and Brent Rooker, respectively, with those two offerings. 

For the short term, I think this mix change makes sense. A part of the pitching milieu these days is focused on having hurlers throw as many types of pitches as possible, but if those offerings aren’t cutting it, there’s little point in throwing them. 

The simplified approach has also sharpened his pitches: while the slider and cutter bled into each other at times in 2024, his 2025 plot reveals two solidly separate offerings. Just as saliently, Matthews’s velocity is noticeably up compared to 2024, with his heater sitting at 96.6 MPH and the slider and cutter up a tick, as well. Here's what he looked like last year.

And here's the (you know, hopefully) new and improved version.

Now, I was concerned his new, tighter movement distribution and more linear approach might make him susceptible to platoon splits. We know that, inside of each pitcher lives two individuals, and who they reveal is based on batter handedness. Indeed, pitchers like Sonny Gray, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober (not Joe Ryan, really, but that’s just how he rolls) throw different pitches based on which batter’s box the hitters step in. 

Matthews doesn’t do that. Or, at least, his measures are less extreme. He trades about 10% of his four-seamers for cutters against lefties, but is otherwise shockingly agnostic on the matter. It’s worked for him, though, because his command of the cutter and slider to lefties has been pristine, and the verticality of his slider makes the pitch less susceptible to platoon splits. Just look at how he turned Brice Turang into mincemeat with the pitch:

Ok, and we’ll embarrass Vinnie Pasquantino as well:

So far, Matthews has faced 14 lefties and struck out six of them. He’s also allowed five singles and a walk, but only two of the hits were struck well. I think his process here is especially intriguing, and we should keep an eye on whether he can keep whiffing lefties at such an extreme rate. 

Long term, I’m unsure of the viability of a right-handed pitcher having nothing moving arm-side. The guys who successfully eschew having such an offering—rare in nature, but existing nonetheless—do so by dominating in other ways. Dylan Cease’s slider might be the best in baseball. Nick Pivetta works with an extreme vertical approach and a variety of breaking ball shapes. Can Matthews sharpen his slider to reach Cease’s level? It’s unlikely. I think he’ll need a sinker or a re-worked changeup. Hitters are just too good. They won’t be fooled for long by a small movement profile.

Though his season ERA sits at 7.71, even higher than his 2024 mark, Matthews is not the same pitcher he was last year. His velocity is up. He largely eliminated two impotent offerings. I don’t think it’ll be enough to launch him into dominance, but it should at least allow him to reach a higher level. He looks primed to take a step forward. We shall see what comes next.

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[thelanges5]

Zebby has taken a step forward this year. He’s got a lot of upside still. He’s an extreme strike thrower (70% last outing) and KC fouled off 23 of his 81 pitches. If he can turn some of those fouls into weak contact he could extend his outings. 
 

We’ll get to see him again this weekend in Seattle. Go Twins!

[bean5302]

65-70% strike rate is pretty normal. It's not like Matthews was throwing 70% of his pitches in the zone. In fact, he was throwing just 48.1% "strikes" which is below average. On the season he's at 52.6% zone rate, which is middle of the pack.

I'm not sure where the narrative Matthews pounds the zone comes from. I guess it's because his stuff is close enough to the zone or good enough to get MiLB hitters to chase or that he can throw a strike if needed. It's pretty clear Matthews has plenty to work on when it comes to command.

Joe Ryan had a problem with not issuing walks when he needed to earlier in his career. To avoid the walk, he'd throw a challenge pitch and his stuff wasn't really good enough to pull that off. Baldelli talked about it as well.

I think Matthews might be in the same boat. He doesn't have overpowering stuff, but he does have pitches which are good enough to get it done. He'll need to learn better command and when to make that challenge pitch vs. when not to. It'll pay off down the line if he's able to get those things in order.

[Althebum82]

Outstanding analysis with some pretty logical conclusions, Matt.  Let's hope that the Twins remain patient with his development and he can, in the long run, make an increased impact on the balance of this season.

[Road trip]

Hm....  so he's abandoned his only pitch that drops, as well as his off-speed stuff (change and curve)? 

Avg speeds of his pitches weren't listed and I assume the 4-seemer is a few mph faster than the cutter and slider, but still, this seems like a mix that is going to struggle to succeed more than one time through a lineup.  Long term, most starters need to at least threaten to throw a slower pitch to keep batters honest unless their fastball is just overpowering.

[Guest]

Sinker.

[Guest]

 

Maybe it's just me, but I rarely understand so many of the graphics/charts used. For instance the hatched area is identified as MLB Average. By definition isn't an average a single point? (At least it was in my preschool arithmetic classes.) If anyone can educate me as to how an average pitch can be an area that is 6" to 12" in diameter I would really appreciate it. Is this advanced baseball analytics?

[Western SD Fan]

6 hours ago, Road trip said:

Hm....  so he's abandoned his only pitch that drops, as well as his off-speed stuff (change and curve)? 

Avg speeds of his pitches weren't listed and I assume the 4-seemer is a few mph faster than the cutter and slider, but still, this seems like a mix that is going to struggle to succeed more than one time through a lineup.  Long term, most starters need to at least threaten to throw a slower pitch to keep batters honest unless their fastball is just overpowering.

I'm glad somebody else noticed this.  I would think that a pitcher would struggle getting through the lineup more than once or twice because the hitter can potentially foul more pitches off if they don't have to adjust their approach for pitch speed and wait out Zebby to make a mistake.  I'm hoping this is Stage 1 in terms of working with his pitch mix and find a true off-speed pitch he can control in the zone.