The 2025 Twins Daily Top 20 Minnesota Twins Prospect Rankings

[Major League Ready]

14 hours ago, bean5302 said:

Stats from players at AA last year. Leader in bold.
#5 - a23 - AA - 9.19 K/9 (25.2%), 2.04 BB/9 (5.6%), 41.9% GB, 1.90 ERA, 2.36 FIP, 3.33 xFIP (Morris)
#6 - a21 - AA - 9.62 K/9 (24.8%), 4.27 BB/9 (11.0%), 41.8% GB, 4.27 ERA, 3.98 FIP, 4.06 xFIP (Raya)
#9 - a23 - AA - 10.91 K/9(28.8%), 4.64 BB/9(12.2%), 36.9% GB, 2.59 ERA, 3.96 FIP, 3.92 xFIP (Lewis)
#12 - a22 - AA - 9.00 K/9 (23.3%), 3.00 BB/9 (7.8%), 39.0% GB, 4.71 ERA, 4.08 FIP, 3.75 xFIP (Culpepper)
#17 - a23 - AA - 11.16 K/9 (30.9%), 2.01 BB/9 (5.6%), 47.9% GB, 3.79 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.08 xFIP (Castellano)
>20 - a24 - AA - 9.08 K/9 (24.5%), 2.33 BB/9 (6.3%), 42.5% GB, 3.67 ERA, 3.34 FIP, 3.58 xFIP (Adams)

 

Thanks for consolidating these stats.  After getting a look at Castellano on TV and seeing these stats, I think they keep this guy one way or another.

[dxpavelka]

23 hours ago, Elliot said:

Not a criticism, just an observation.

With all of these players we dream big. I assume they do as well.

The hitters will all be high OPS (triple crown potential in my old guy language) with gold glove level defense. The pitchers will be workhorse starters (now 150 innings instead of the old 200-250) who give you a handful of complete games per year. Those who end up in either category are now fewer and further between. That is the new reality for all of these prospects.

The old idea of “if he can hit, we will find a place for him” is a lot less accurate today. Julien, Miranda, and France are current examples of players on the fringe who are minimized by their defensive shortcomings. Severino has never gotten a look, probably due to his DH only status. Some of the prospects have a steeper hill to climb for this same reason. Amick and Rosario are examples.  I am sure there are others, it is just that any defensive info is pretty hard to come by. The first hurdle is hitting. If you can’t hit you can’t make it, unless you happen to be a superior defensive player at a premium position (catcher, SS, CF), and even that doesn’t guarantee anything (hello DeShawn Keirsey). Versatility is now a key. Can a player fill multiple roles adequately, even if none of them are above average. Castro and Martin will probably both be on the opening day roster although neither has shown enough to be a regular at any one position. So although the main info reported on all of the hitters is a stat line, the real determinate for where their career goes for most of them will be how they develop defensively over the next 3-5 years.

Pitchers dream of starting. The reality is that every team has close to twice as many relievers as starters, and almost all of the relievers began as starters. We are seeing that play out now in the career of Louis Varland.

And finally, as all Twins fans know, the biggest variable for all of them is health.

So I will gladly dream of Walker Jenkins waltzing into the HOF, Emmanuel Rodriguez and Luke Keaschall making multiple ASG appearances, and any number of outputs from the pitching pipeline battling for Cy Youngs or Firemen of the Year awards going forward.  I will also firmly believe that Brandon Winokur will surprise everyone and become the “high OPS (triple crown potential in my old guy language) with gold glove level defense” star. I also know that 5 years from now we won’t recognize but a handful of the names on this top 30 list.

I love following the minor leagues!!!

Guys like Miranda, Julien & France are on the fringe because of their offensive shortcomings and their lack of defensive chops just make it almost impossible for them to be sustainable.  If they hit like Adam Dunn, Mark McGwire, Gary Scheffield, Frank Thomas they'd have lengthy big league careers and multiple all-star appearances and garner HOF consideration.  They don't.

[Major League Ready]

23 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Me being me, I could easily ramble to a post as long as Seth's, but I'm going to TRY to abbreviate my thoughts as best I can. LOL!

1] I don't want to curse anything, and it's been over 30yr ago and an entirely different way of doing things, and a very different FO in charge now, but the Twins haven't had this many pitching prospects...quality arms...since the late 80's going in to the early 90's. Unfortunately, for whatever reasons, despite many good rankings, things didn't work out. But again, over 30yrs ago. So I'm not trying to put a voodoo curse by my comments, lol, just been THAT LONG since I can remember a collection of arms this talented.

Morris just needs a little velocity tick. Same with Lewis after missing early time last season, the knuckleball is great, maybe throw it more? Culpepper, like Lewis, missed time, and just needs to keep his velocity up. Not a SINGLE great pitch, but a lot of solid pitches to keep everyone off balance. I hear his change is his worst pitch. That's fine with the rest of his arsenal. Soto might need to change the shape of his FB for more movement, but the velocity is there, along with a great build, good athletic ability, and a great attitude. He could be outstanding in a couple of years! The still very young Raya, with kid gloves off, needs more consistency with his stuff. He's on the 40 man because he has to be. And that's fine. But when it comes to ML promotion time, he's actually behind Festa, Matthews, Morris, and Lewis, and Adams not because of potential, but readiness. And that's OK.

If Prielipp is healthy for all of 2025, regardless of innings management and overall usage, he's a top 100 arm in next years rankings. Unless he skyrockets to MLB as a bullpen option this season. (Betting not). 

As Seth pointed out, there's some arms from the 2023 draft barely threw, if at all, once drafted. Langenberg might be on a fast track. Dunn, Lee, and Bengard could all make moves in 2025 that MIGHT rival the advancement of the 2023 class, though that might be unfair expectations. The guy to watch is Dougherty, who was throwing bullets early in ST before an injury.

I think we're all excited to see what young Hill can do in his debut. Like Festa...though a younger HS selection...he's got a tall and somewhat thin build. He will need more "good" muscle and bulk just to keep his velocity up. But he MIGHT be the most exciting LH arm the Twins have had in years. But Carpenter, I believe only 19yo at draft time, was headed to a quality D1 program out of JC and recieved a nice $ bump not to go there. He might be as good of a prospect as Hill.

Similar to 2023, the Twins went harder in the 2024 draft early on position players. And in addition to Hill and Carpenter, an arm to watch is 9th round pick Doktorczyk who is part of the SPRING BREAKOUT roster. Build and STUFF, he's almost a clone of Matthews. Watch this kid in 2025.

2] Beyond the obvious TOP THREE on the list, a healthy season for DeAndrade could see him climb the prospect list. I watched him make a couple bad throws in the Yankees game, but that doesn't mean that much for a kid in the semi bright lights of a ST when he missed so much time last season. Mercedes is one of the best 5 tool players in the franchise, though the power may be more doubles accentuated. I can easily see Winokur as the Twins starting CF in a couple years if he doesn't lose speed as he gains normal muscle. He's a freak athlete. He's shown ability and adjustment ability. Will it continue? I sure hope so. He could be special.

What impresses me about the system is not only pitching depth overall, but once you get beyond Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Keaschall...and there is a gap there...the recent drafts and IL signings provide some really good looking prospects position wise sitting at A and A+ ready to take a step forward over the next couple of seasons. A few are IL signings that have a lot to prove yet. Some are college draftees who have barely begun their journey. And I didn't even touch on a couple 2024 position players who I think are interesting, in order to bring my opinion to a close. But DAMN, I really liked a few of the 2024 position players drafted and think they might have gotten some steals! 

 

Could Morris be the next Griffin Jax?  Similar build / Starter turned RP.

[DocBauer]

20 minutes ago, Major League Ready said:

Could Morris be the next Griffin Jax?  Similar build / Starter turned RP.

I can see that happening if he can't maintain his velocity over multiple innings. Not saying he can't, it's just that he's not the biggest guy in the world.

I think Adams is the next starter to move to a pen role. (I believe Nowlin has already been moved to a relief role). 

[tony&rodney]

14 hours ago, DocBauer said:

Could Morris be the next Griffin Jax?

Funny thing .... I'm wondering if Andrew Morris can be the next Shane Bieber.

[ashbury]

27 minutes ago, tony&rodney said:

Funny thing .... I'm wondering if Andrew Morris can be the next Shane Bieber.

I'm wondering if Payton Eeles can be the next Eddie Gaedel.

[Mike Sixel]

Great list thanks to everyone that worked on it, especially Seth for writing!

[twinstalker]

A lot better, Seth.

Criticisms: 

• Raya at 6.  Still waiting for somebody to tell me why.  All I know is that he's been hurt, he's been mediocre, and he doesn't pitch very long.
• DeBarge at 13.  Why?  With all the mistakes this FO has made with draft picks, why does his draft position get him anywhere close to the top 10?  Because I know you're not ranking him on his low A stats.  There's nothing I've seen or heard that makes him a top 20 or 25 guy.
• Luke Keaschall should be #2.  It's not all that close in my book.
• You have two guy in your next 10 that maybe should be in your top 10.  Both De Andrade and Eeles have flaws and some upside issues, but they could be your future middle infield ahead of a lot of familiar names, including Keaschall who could play elsewhere.  Eeles is better suited to 2B than he is utility, but no one yet is giving him a fair shake.  I've said for a while DDA will take over for Correa if his bat can maintain through promotions.  Putting them with Schobel is giving up on them; you should put DeBarge with Schobel.
• Kaelen Culpepper at least proved he's better than low A, something DeBarge and Amick can't say.  But I don't really see a lot in him at this point.  It's a wait and see for me, and I give zero points for him being a 1st rounder, so I'm hard pressed to do more than put him in the top 15.
• Brandon Winokur is okay, but I wouldn't label him a good prospect, and I certainly wouldn't put him in the Twins top 10.  He struck out 115 times in 410 PAs.  That's 28%.  There is a bright side, though.  He played well overall and had that ugly K rate in his age 19 season at low A.  He's decent, as far as this list goes, but things are going to have to change for him to be considered a potential difference-maker, which is really what a top 10 guy should be.  I'd rather throw Dasan Hill, who's never thrown a professional pitch, into the 8 spot than have Winokur there.
• I like Soto enough to be okay with putting him ahead of Morris, even if I wouldn't yet.  I also like Lewis and CJ Culpepper, though Culpepper is dealing with arm issues (if you don't fix them, you'll always have them).  Prielipp is encouraging.  Hill is a good-looking lottery ticket.
• The bats in the system are pretty bad except for the top three and Eeles, whose EVs are questionable.  You can't waste picks on guys like Cavaco, Sabato, DeBarge, N. Miller (all 1st rd picks under Falvey).
• There is a tiny bit of hope with some recent guys from the DOSL, including especially...
• Dameury Pena: crushed DOSL, crushed FCL before getting hurt and his numbers sliding, and did this all with a 6.5% K rate that will make him Arraez-like.  Despite the drop in numbers after the injury, he still sports an overall .333/.419/.454 slash overall in the rookie league.  I would have him in the top 10.  Before the injury in FCL his small sample size slash was .339/.457/.462, while after it was .212/.288/.346.  He's a "buy" candidate like Arraez should have been.  Expect his numbers to be less than those he put up prior to the injury, as he'll bat in the pitcher-friendly FSL this summer.  A quick google search did not reveal what the injury was.