Rebuilding an Ace: How the Twins Can Help Pablo López Regain His Cy Young Form

[Cody Christie]

Pablo López has shown flashes of being one of the AL’s best pitchers, including a top-10 finish for the AL Cy Young in 2023. To regain that form for the 2025 season, however, he must make some changes.

Image courtesy of Matt Krohn-Imagn Images

The Minnesota Twins acquired Pablo López in the hope that he could be a cornerstone of their rotation for years to come. The early returns were promising, with an All-Star appearance and flashes of dominance, but maintaining Cy Young-caliber form proved difficult. As López looks to build on his first two seasons in Minnesota, the Twins must focus on specific areas to help him reach the elite level he can sustain over a full campaign.

Avoiding the Long Ball
Home runs were one of López’s most significant challenges during the 2024 season. He posted career-worst marks with a 37.5% hard-hit rate, 35.9% launch-angle sweet spot rate, and 3.4% home-run rate by opposing batters. He sometimes struggled to keep the ball in the yard, derailing otherwise strong outings. This issue isn’t new for López, but limiting home runs is critical.

Part of the solution lies in pitch sequencing and location. López’s four-seam fastball is effective when he elevates it, but it becomes hittable when he misses over the plate. Combining his elevated fastball with better execution of his sweeper could help keep hitters off balance and generate more ground balls. Additionally, targeting the bottom of the zone with his secondary pitches (particularly the changeup) could help him induce weak contact, rather than leaving pitches in the launch zone.

Letting It Rip with the Sweeper
The sweeper emerged as one of López’s most dynamic offerings during his first season in Minnesota. Last season, the pitch was less effective, but sometimes he seemed tentative when throwing it. He must embrace it even more. In an era where breaking balls dominate, López’s sweeper has elite movement that confounds hitters when deployed effectively. Increasing its usage, particularly in two-strike counts, could turn it into his signature weapon.

The Twins could also encourage López to throw the sweeper earlier in counts, to set up other pitches. In 2023, he held batters to a .287 SLG against his sweeper with a 36.6% whiff rate. Last season, opponents posted a .436 SLG, with an exit velocity over 4 miles per hour faster than his first season with the Twins. He had a slightly better spin on the pitch in 2023, so that should be his focus. If the sweeper becomes a pitch hitters anticipate but cannot barrel, López could find himself climbing the strikeout leaderboard again in 2024.

Rediscovering His Changeup
López’s changeup has long been one of his most effective pitches, but there have been inconsistencies since joining the Twins. When that offering is on, it tunnels perfectly off his fastball and generates swings and misses, especially against left-handed hitters. However, its effectiveness waned in stretches, as hitters began to lay off it. He allowed a career-high .410 SLG and saw opponents' whiff rates drop by over 5% when throwing his changeup in 2023. Last season, his whiff rate dropped to a career-worst 24.9%, and batters hit .281 against his changeup.

The Twins need to help López regain confidence in his changeup, be that by focusing on grip adjustments or release mechanics to ensure consistent fade and depth. Using the pitch with his fastball and sweeper will make it harder for hitters to pick up. The changeup doesn’t need to be his primary weapon, but it’s a critical part of his arsenal that makes everything else work.

The Path Back to Dominance
López has all the tools to be one of the best pitchers in baseball. His 2024 season provided glimpses of brilliance, including a second-half stretch wherein he posted a 2.11 ERA and a 71-to-15 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 12 starts (76 2/3 innings). For him, consistency will be the key moving forward. By limiting home runs, leaning into his sweeper, and rediscovering his changeup, López can take the next step and become the ace the Twins envisioned when they extended him.

With a strong offseason of preparation and the guidance of the Twins’ coaching staff, there’s no reason López can’t contend for a Cy Young Award in 2025. The talent is there, and the Twins and López must unlock it.

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What do you think? Can López take his game to the next level this season? Leave a comment and start the discussion. 

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[tony&rodney]

Thank you for putting the work in to examine how Pablo Lopez can take a step to be more consistent and finish 2025 with improved numbers.

I'm not at all concerned about Lopez. Dude is a big guy who is intelligent and disciplined in the routines needed to be good at pitching. Something about Lopez oozes confidence and success. The Twins need to put a better set of defenders behind him to turn those outs into outs at a far higher clip than the ragged defensive group from last season. I beieive Lopez is primed for a big year.

[LambchoP]

I saw on mlbtrade rumors that the Twins and Padres are trying to line up on a trade for either or both of Paddack and Vasquez. Surprisingly it also said that we were interested in Dylan Cease. I don't really believe it, but if we could somehow snag him, imagine our SP rotation of Lopez, Cease, Ryan, Ober and SWR/Festa/Mathews. That would make up for this agonizing off-season. To get Cease we'd probably have to give up one of our top 5 prospects I'd guess. Vasquez, Paddack and Raya? I'm sure that's not enough. I'm not sure if Cease has any control remaining or not as that will make a difference.

[old nurse]

33 minutes ago, LambchoP said:

I saw on mlbtrade rumors that the Twins and Padres are trying to line up on a trade for either or both of Paddack and Vasquez. Surprisingly it also said that we were interested in Dylan Cease. I don't really believe it, but if we could somehow snag him, imagine our SP rotation of Lopez, Cease, Ryan, Ober and SWR/Festa/Mathews. That would make up for this agonizing off-season. To get Cease we'd probably have to give up one of our top 5 prospects I'd guess. Vasquez, Paddack and Raya? I'm sure that's not enough. I'm not sure if Cease has any control remaining or not as that will make a difference.

It would be a 1 year rental for Cease at 13 million. So Paddack and Vasquez for Cease does not give the Padres any financial relief. Now add Arraez and give them one of the would be 2b along with the other two and a prospect and a couple of a to low a players it would make for a deal 

[NYCTK]

Improve Defense

Unfortunately the organization has made it incredibly likely that the defense this next season will be significantly worse than in 2024. 

[tony&rodney]

The Padres-Twins discussions are being discussed under Twins active in trade market under Twins Talk.

[David Maro]

Pablo needs to be more aggressive on the mound. At times he has shown to be a little timid. When he bears down and becomes a bit of a bulldog he is a better pitcher. Watching Ober pitch he seems to already have that mentality. Varland has the mentality,but is a thrower not a pitcher. It is time the pitching coach work to improve that aspect.

[Aerodeliria]

You used Cy Young and Pablo López in the same sentence...

[gman]

On 1/23/2025 at 10:27 AM, NYCTK said:

Improve Defense

Unfortunately the organization has made it incredibly likely that the defense this next season will be significantly worse than in 2024. 

Why do you think it will be worse?