Offseason Primer: Where Do the Kansas City Royals Go Next?

[Eric Blonigen]

The Kansas City Royals lost 106 games in 2023. They followed that up by making a number of free agent moves and trades, and made the playoffs after increasing their 2024 win total by 30 full games. Now that their surprising season has come to an end at the hands of the Yankees, let’s look at some likely offseason priorities for this divisional rival.

Image courtesy of Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Let’s begin by addressing a huge team priority. The Royals have been playing games at Kauffman Stadium since 1973, making it the fifth-oldest stadium still in use. It’s undergone multiple refurbishments throughout the years, and is still a solid place to see games. The tailgating is great, the stadium is open and airy, and it doesn’t feel 50 years old.

That said, the Royals have been exploring potential sites for a new ballpark in both Kansas and Missouri. Part of their sales pitch to local governments and to the fans that live in the various jurisdictions has been the team’s desire to stay in Kansas City long-term, and a commitment to winning. That’s likely at least part of the reason they decided to push their chips in prior to the 2024 season.

Off the heels of a 2024 ALDS appearance with no stadium deal in place, I believe it’s likely the Royals will try to go all-in this offseason in order to show their dedication to the city and the fan base. What are the factors that will impact this over the next several months?

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Payroll and Contract Decisions
Heading into the 2024 season, owner John Sherman pushed payroll to $122M, the highest in several years. In 2025, they don’t have a ton of committed money – just over $44M guaranteed to Salvador Perez, Seth Lugo, Bobby Witt.

There are three players with Player Options – the net result is there’s likely $12M more hitting the 2025 books. Chris Stratton has an option at $4.5M (his likely free agent value is 1/$4.8M). He could go either way, but I’m guessing he stays. Hunter Renfroe has an option at $7.6M (his likely free agent value is a 2/$11M deal). Because the AAV is higher on his option, he likely opts in. Michael Wacha has a $16M option (his likely free agent value is a 3/$60M deal). He likely opts out and signs a multi-year deal with someone.

Adam Frazier also has an $8.5M mutual option, but his likely market value is a 1/$1.2M deal. The Royals will decline the option.

They will have arbitration decisions on a number of players: Josh Taylor ($1.1M), Hunter Harvey ($3.9M), Brady Singer ($8.8M), Kris Bubic ($2.8M), Kyle Wright ($1.8M), John Schreiber ($2M), Carlos Hernandez ($1.2M), Kyle Isbel ($1.7M), MJ Melendez ($2.5M), Daniel Lynch ($1.1M). Of those players, just Singer and Harvey are set to make more than $3M, and both factor into their 2025 plans. Assuming they choose to tender everyone, that adds $28M onto their 2025 books.

With all of this in mind, the Royals are sitting around a $95M payroll so far, with some holes to fill. Let’s look at their offseason needs.

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Offseason Needs
They have eight players hitting free agency, in Will Smith, Michael Lorenzen, Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Garrett Hampson, Robbie Grossman, Yuli Gurriel, and Dan Altavilla. That creates some holes on the roster, and there isn’t much high-end depth even close to ready on the farm.

Third base coverage becomes thin. Maikel Garcia is the primary fielder at the position, and he doesn’t hit much, with a .614 OPS in 2024.

The Royals finished the season with the 11th-worst bullpen ERA in baseball. They traded for Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey, but likely need at least one more arm capable of pitching in the late innings.

Their outfielders didn’t hit a lick in 2024, and the Royals would benefit from at least one big bat playing in the grass, and two would be better.

With Gurriel departing, the Royals will need to decide whether Salvador Perez is their everyday first baseman, or if they need him to catch alongside Freddy Fermin. They will need to acquire a decent player at either first base or catcher.

They will also need at least one starting pitcher to replace Michael Wacha’s likely departure. Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, and Brady Singer set up the front of the rotation, and Kyle Wright probably holds down the fifth spot, but the Royals will likely want to aim for another mid-rotation starter, and possibly two to combat uncertainty and provide additional depth.

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TV Deal
The Royals are yet another team impacted by the Diamond Sports Group’s bankruptcy proceedings and stated goal of only broadcasting Atlanta. Similar to the Twins, they could choose to re-up on a worse deal, or they could choose to use MLB to broadcast their games. Either option would almost certainly carry a large financial hit compared to their current TV deal, and that figures to impact their payroll goals.

How will the Royals square up the need to compete in order to secure a stadium deal with the significant loss of revenue? And will it affect their ability to sign impact players? Will they pursue the trade route to save payroll? If so, they may need to empty their farm system which is not strong to begin with.

In many ways, the 2025 Royals offseason could look a lot like the 2024 Twins — they have a couple star players, some young talent, but some real needs and no easy way to fill them unless they are either comfortable operating at a loss, or willing to push all their chips in to win now. For Twins fans, one can hope that the Royals 2025 season looks like the 2024 Twins season as well.

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[Fatbat]

Well, they go home and will likely retool a few positions and be tougher to beat next year. 

[tony&rodney]

Good job of looking over the Royals team. The photo shows a possible answer for KC. Perhaps they bring back Tommy Pham.

Did I miss the mention of Vinnie (Kent Hrbek) Pasquantino in the article? He is the real deal, a feared hitter.

When looking over the Royals team I see some obvious holes in the outfield and a need, like most every team, for pitching. Still, one can argue that the Royals have three position players that stand out and lead the team and some very promising young players as well.

I see Bobby Witt Jr. as the best player in baseball right now. His ability to affect all areas of the game and play every day improves everyone on the team. His contributions cannot be matched across the board, which makes the Royals tough when complimentary pieces are added.

There may be some regression next season for Kansas City. I had them around 79-83 wins this season and expect them to be decent next year as well.

[mikelink45]

I like what they have done and I expect that the OF is one of the easier areas to address.  Nice job KC.

Which brings me to the Twins who did not make the needed adjustments and now that it is for sale does that tie the hands of the FO?

[tony&rodney]

2 hours ago, mikelink45 said:

Which brings me to the Twins who did not make the needed adjustments and now that it is for sale does that tie the hands of the FO?

I don't believe it will. Falvey can put together a pretty decent roster with somewhere around $130 M. The issue is allocation of resources, unless one thinks the Twins should be spending significantly above that budget. Falvey, in his words, put together the roster he wanted for 2024. Now he gets another chance to build the 2025 roster as he sees fit to do.

[twinzcynic]

 

 

21 hours ago, tony&rodney said:

Did I miss the mention of Vinnie (Kent Hrbek) Pasquantino in the article? He is the real deal, a feared hitter.

He is the real deal but mysteriously gets left out in all Twins daily articles regarding the Royals. The Twins would be incredibly lucky to have an actual run producer at first rather than the slop we've put out in recent years.

[tony&rodney]

1 minute ago, twinzcynic said:

He is the real deal but mysteriously gets left out in all Twins daily articles regarding the Royals.

Really. i had not noticed that. Vinnie is underrated, he does remind me of Hrbek. I've wondered if Royce Lewis might have a better career if he was a first baseman, but am not at all sure what he thinks about it.

[bean5302]

The Royals have the hard to find rotation pieces at the top with Ragans and Lugo on the books for next year. Singer was solid enough as a #3, and Alec Marsh was good enough to hold down a back end rotation spot. Noah Cameron is probably an opening day starter for 2025 rounding out the rotation. They'll still need to add an emergency arm or two for depth. Easy to come by.

Bobby Witt, Jr. is a legitimate MVP candidate, and Salvador Perez had a great resurgence filling the #1 catcher position with solid backup Fermin. Perez split time at 1B. There's some young talent on the team, but most of their recent players to exhaust rookie status had major problems at the plate.

The good news is the Royals have a ton of free money to throw around (after Wacha opts out and the Royals decline Frazier) and Sherman is 100% going to do just that as he pursues a new stadium. I think the Royals are obvious potential landing spots for what will be a very cheap Michael A. Taylor trying for a rebound and soon to be former Twins player, Max Kepler. Joc Pederson makes a lot of sense for his ability to technically cover an OF position or 1B or DH. There are some other holes on the Royals' roster, and I think they'll add at least 2 more quality bullpen arms, maybe another position player, too. I'm not sure I see a big long term deal

C - Perez
1B - Pasquantino
2B - Massey
3B - ?
SS - Witt, Jr.
LF - Renfroe
CF - Michael A. Taylor?
RF - Max Kepler?
DH - Joc Pederson?
BC - Freddy Fermin
UI - Garcia
UI - ?
UO - ?

SP1 - Ragans
SP2 - Lugo
SP3 - Singer
SP4 - Cameron
SP5 - Marsh

BP1 - Erceg
BP2 - Bubic
BP3 - Scheriber
BP4 - Stratton
BP5 - ?
BP6 - ?
BP7 - ?
BP8 - ?