Twins Daily Hitter of the Month: August 2024

[Eric Blonigen]

Over the past month, the Twins have solidified their playoff odds while picking up three games over the Guardians. This has occurred despite injuries to star players and bullpen shakiness. With August in the books, it’s time to reflect on the Twins hitters that have helped the team accomplish this progress, and their performance over the past month. A few guys in particular stand out as carrying the team.

 

Honorable Mention - Byron Buxton - .250/.357/.708/1.065, 4 BB, 5 K, 3 HR
Byron Buxton began the month on a Judgian trajectory before a hip flareup forced him out of the lineup and to the IL. In just eight games, he logged five extra base hits, while playing his typical brand of great center field defense. Had he played even half the month, he likely would have taken home hitter of the month honors. Alas, it was not meant to be. With news Buxton is ready to begin a short rehab assignment, perhaps September will be his month if he can pick up where he left off.

 

#4 - Trevor Larnach - .284/.338/.473 .811 OPS, 3 HR, 1 SB, 11 RBI, 21 K, 6 BB
Trevor Larnach spend the first part of April on the IL and was optioned to St Paul until Matt Wallner’s early-season struggles created an opportunity for Trevor Larnach to attempt to carve out a role for himself. He spent May and June as an underlying metrics darling. Despite having a pedestrian OPS, his hard-hit rate and xwOBA indicated some positive regression was likely.

 

Fast-forward a bit, and since Carlos Correa went on the IL with plantar fasciitis, Trevor Larnach has slotted in as the #2 hitter more often than not. While some have questioned this approach, it has paid dividends. In addition to the expected regression occurring, Larnach has learned how to crush cutters. Across the month of August, we have seen perhaps his 75% percentile outcome as more of his contact landed for hits.

He has also had a couple key moments that directly led to Twins wins. On 8/24, he took old friend Sonny Gray deep twice for his first ever multi-homer game and knocked in four of the Twins’ six runs in a victory. On 8/21, he recorded his first-ever four hit game. On 8/27 against the Braves, Larnach was a part of a comeback in the 8th inning, knocking in Willi Castro to tie the game. Over his past 100 swings, Larnach has the 7th-highest hard-hit rate in baseball, just below Yordan Alvarez, Corbin Carroll, and Vlad Guerrero Jr. Good company to be in, and his performance led to accumulating 0.5 fWAR across the month. 

 

#3 - Christian Vasquez - .302/.321/.472 .793 OPS, 2 HR, 9 RBI, 9 K, 2 BB
Christian Vasquez takes the #3 slot here not because he was the Twins’ third best hitter for the month (5th by OPS), but because his resurgence has come at the most crucial time of his Twins career so far. With Byron Buxton, Carlos Correa, and Brooks Lee all on the IL, getting better-than-solid production from the catcher slot has been key, and Vasquez has shined on both sides of the plate.

 

Parker Hageman wrote about the in-season tweaks behind the Vasquez resurgence, and the results over the past month and change have been revelatory. With an OPS better than .800 as a great defensive catcher, some have even advocated for the Twins to bat him leadoff. 

 

August saw Vasquez celebrate crossing the 10-year service time threshold, a rare accomplishment in this day and age. On 8/11 against the Guardians, he had a clutch single with two on in the 9th inning. If not for Kepler holding at third, the Twins may have won the game. Vazquez nearly had a game-winning moment again on 8/20, as he knocked in two to take the lead against the Padres, while pinch hitting. Unfortunately, the leaky bullpen erased his efforts that day. This month, Vasquez has been worth 0.5 fWAR.

#2 - Ryan Jeffers - .278/.333/.593 .926 OPS, 5 HR, 1 SB, 9 RBI, 11 K, 4 BB
Ryan Jeffers began the season at a world-beating pace but cooled considerably mid-season. By early August, many were calling for Vasquez to become the everyday catcher. However, Jeffers found his form and went on a heater, accumulating 0.6 fWAR on the month while putting up a .396 wOBA and a 162 wRC+, justifying the continued platooning of one of the most solid catching duos in baseball.

 

On August 16, Jeffers hit a two-run moonshot while swinging a giant pencil bat. Four days later, he became just the fourth catcher in Twins history to hit 20 home runs in a season. Throughout the month, he was fairly clutch, contributing to some wins and some (almost) wins, finishing with a solid monthly WPA (0.36+). While Jeffers is unlikely to top Mitch Garver’s 30 homer season, if he hits four more in September, he will surpass Joe Mauer to have the second-best home run season for a catcher in team history. 

 

Hitter of the Month - Matt “Cement Bones” Wallner - .273/.398/.558 .956 OPS, 4 HR, 3 SB, 14 RBI, 30 K, 10 BB, 6 HBP
Let’s be clear about something - Matt Wallner crushes baseballs. Since rediscovering his swing and his timing during his interlude with the Saints, Wallner has put up an OPS that rivals Aaron Judge. His .399 xwOBA suggests that his results are mostly legitimate and he just may be one of the best power hitters in baseball. He is also pacing the league in being hit by pitches - six times in August. Let’s examine a few data points.

 

This season, Wallner is finding the launch angle sweet spot a remarkable 44% of the time. Combined with his nearly 100th-percentile average exit velocity, he put up his second straight month with an OPS around 1.000, and he’s been even better with runners on base, hitting .311 with men on. Among all batters with at least 75 batted ball events, Wallner has the 5th-highest average exit velocity and 3rd-highest hard-hit% in all of baseball.

Across August, 13 of his 21 hits went for extra bases. Despite being a slugger, he also stole three bases. He’s had his share of big moments, too. On September 9th, his three-run bomb tied a key game against the Guardians that the Twins eventually won. On the 14th against the Rangers, the game was tied 2-2 in the 9th. Wallner walked, stole second, and eventually scored on a sac fly to win the game. Overall, just this month, Wallner has been worth 1.0 fWAR, leading the team.

As the season winds down and the Minnesota Twins fight to hold onto a playoff spot, it’s a testament to this team’s grittiness and depth that three players who have been largely written off at various points this season have been three of their best hitters down the stretch. If this level of production can continue, up and down the lineup, this is a team that can go head to head with any other team in baseball (at least on the hitting front).

What do you think? Do you agree with these hitters making the biggest impact in August?

 

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[mikelink45]

I agree with Wallner but would switch Larnach and Jeffers and drop Vasquez to five.

[gman]

If we can keep Wallner, Larnach, Jeffers and Vasquez right where they are and add 3-4 more bats such as Lewis, Lee, Miranda and maybe 1 of (Castro, Buxton, or Kepler)? the Twins could bust down some doors on the way to the playoffs. They definitely need more sticks clicking.