Blueprint for winning the division

[Rik19753]

Currently, the chances of the Twins winning the division is 30%, according to Fangraphs (https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds). I feel this is quite high, given that the Twins have to be 4 games better than the Guardians (Currently 3GB + need to finish with better record due to tiebreaker) and they only have 40 remaining games to make up that ground.

So, how realistic is it for the Twins to overtake Cleveland? 1. How many wins will they need and 2. how will they get to that total?

 

For the first question, I think the Twins will need to finish with a 24-16 record (.600 win%). 

For the rest of the season, Fangraphs has CLE going 19.8 - 20.2.

If we take that at face value, the Guardians are most likely to go 20-20 in their last 40 games, meaning the Twins need to go 24-16. Given that the Twins have played at a .566 winning percentage so far, they will need to up their game for the stretch run, which seems like a tough ask given the injuries starting to pile up.

 

For the second question, I think the Twins need to steal 2 games to get to that total. That will likely require them winning 2 out of 3 against mid and bottom tier teams.

Here are the rest of the Twins opponents, and my rough estimate of their expected record against each tier.

• Top tier teams (13 games) - 6-7
  • SD 3 ATL 3 CLE 4 BAL 3
• Mid tier teams (21 games) - 12-9
  • TEX 2 TOR 3 TB 4 KC 3 BOS 3 CIN 3 STL 3

• Bottom tier teams (6 games) - 4-2
  • LAA 3 MIA 3

The expected records adds up to a total record of 22-18, 2 short of the necessary total to overtake the Guardians.

Thus, they will need to steal 2 games somewhere to reach their goal.

IMO, the most realistic scenario requires the Twins to go 13-8 against the middle tier and 5-1 against the bottom tier, which adds up to a 18-9 record, or winning 2 out of 3. I have a hard time seeing the Twins having a winning record against the top tier teams.

 

In conclusion, I think the Twins will need to finish somewhere around 24-16 and that path requires them to steal 2 games along the way. Certainly not unrealistic, but they will have to really beat up on the middle and bottom tier teams to get there.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[tony&rodney]

The only game the Twins need to worry about is the next game, which today is tonight in Texas. Baldelli will not be moving players and pitchers around to focus just on one game. 

Festa should be ready for a really good outing and Kepler, Wallner, and Larnach should be ready to pounce on a right handed pitcher.

[ashbury]

Good analysis.  You can't choreograph a season, and there will be black-swan events every now and then.  But a benchmark like this is good to have in mind - the odds are against them and every so often we'll have to hold them up to a benchmark like this to see whether we (and they) are just kidding ourselves.  Exceed the benchmarks as we go, and we're comfortably away from the Dumb and Dumber meme, "so you're telling me there's a chance."  Lag even a little, and it's "let's see about Plan B - the wild card."

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

On the other hand—and this is the theory I subscribe to—play to win and see what happens.

One team could go on a nice win streak and another team on a losing streak, and it all gets shaken up in a single week. Which is what we are in the process of seeing right now. 

[Trilla]

There are certainly games we will lose, but as we know Cleveland just got swept by the Brewers which leaves us at 2 games behind. Considering all the injuries we've had I will take that with 4 games against Cleveland remaining. I am not the only one that thinks Cleveland's luck has to run out. Maybe the Brew Crew just started that. We just have to win each series, that's all.

[August J Gloop]

On 8/17/2024 at 11:17 AM, Rik19753 said:

 I have a hard time seeing the Twins having a winning record against the top tier teams.

 

Then why do you want them to reach the playoffs?