Completely Different (But Also Exactly the Same), Twins Are Chasing Strikeout-Stopping History - Caretaker Exclusive

[Davy Andrews]

Last year's Ponche Squad is a thing of the past. With essentially the same cast, the Twins offense has flipped the script.

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports

Last season, the Twins set an all-time record by striking out 1,654 times. On a percentage basis, their 26.6% strikeout rate was the sixth-highest in the history of the American and National Leagues. If you throw out the tiny sample size of the 2020 season, it trails only the 2021 Cubs, who bested the Twins by a measly tenth of a percentage point.

Around this time last year, I wrote about their record pace. In particular, I noticed that nearly every player on the roster was striking out more than they had the previous season. I pulled the strikeout rate from every team in the FanGraphs database, and then compared it to their strikeout rate in the next season, so I can now tell you that from 2022 to 2023, the team’s strikeout rate jumped 4.5 percentage points, the 10th-biggest increase in the history of the American and National Leagues.

However, all those strikeouts didn’t keep the Twins from performing well at the plate. Their 109 wRC+ made them the sixth-best offense in baseball. That was also the third-best mark in club history, trailing only 2019, when they ran a 116 wRC+, and 1976, when they put up a 111 mark. That’s where the Twins were last season: They had a great offense that also happened to be great at striking out.
 
Just about a month ago, Nick Nelson filled us in on where the Twins are this season. They have turned things around dramatically in the strikeout department, running a 17.5% strikeout rate in the month of June, the second-lowest in baseball. Nick also broke down all the reasons behind the sudden turnaround: improvements by players like Trevor Larnach and Byron Buxton, along with replacing three-true-outcome mavens like Joey Gallo and Michael A. Taylor with contact-oriented players like Carlos Santana and Manuel Margot.

Since Nick’s article, the Twins have regressed a bit, striking out 21% of the time in July. Yet, they have an even better offense than they did last year, running a 113 wRC+. They also have their lowest strikeout rate in five years at 21.0%, which is also 10th overall. Because Nick already did the hard work of breaking things down on the level of individual players, I’d like to take a look at the bigger picture. The bigger picture is fun because of some simple math. Here's how it works.

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[Karbo]

Less K's = more action. More action = more enjoyment for the fans.

[Oldgoat_MN]

Fun article!

This, to me, is really interesting. I had wondered last year about this.

Average BABIP runs around. 300. Assuming you start making contact with that third strike you should wind up with more hits. Likely not .300 worth, but some should slip through.

Some at bats will still be strikeouts and some will be weakly hit. To have such a high % of at bats change reeks of a modification to a coach's approach. 

Anyone have any evidence or opinion about this?

[RpR]

Sending Wallner and Julien down also helped reduce K percentage greatly.

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Karbo said:

Less K's = more action. More action = more enjoyment for the fans.

If only people could watch the games! LOL

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, Oldgoat_MN said:

Fun article!

This, to me, is really interesting. I had wondered last year about this.

Average BABIP runs around. 300. Assuming you start making contact with that third strike you should wind up with more hits. Likely not .300 worth, but some should slip through.

Some at bats will still be strikeouts and some will be weakly hit. To have such a high % of at bats change reeks of a modification to a coach's approach. 

Anyone have any evidence or opinion about this?

I think it's very clear the front office wasn't happy with the strikeouts last year based on the changes to the roster. The most reasonable conclusion is a change of this type was brought on by analytics. Many of us suspect that high K rates for multiple players in the lineup significantly depresses average run production. The front office certainly has the resources to crunch those numbers.

[dxpavelka]

You get out 100% of the time you don't make contact.  Only about 70% of the time you do make contact.  It's almost like the Twins front office has known this for decades.

[Jocko87]

On 8/6/2024 at 6:55 AM, dxpavelka said:

You get out 100% of the time you don't make contact.

8% of at bats (PA) that end in a walk would like a word.

[dxpavelka]

13 hours ago, Jocko87 said:

8% of at bats (PA) that end in a walk would like a word.

Nobody ever walked on a pitch they swung at and didn't make contact with.