Behind Enemy Lines: Previewing the 2024 Detroit Tigers

[Adam Friedman]

As the Minnesota Twins sat on their hands for the most part this offseason, the Detroit Tigers were lauded nationally for investing in the team. This praise comes after the Tigers finished 2023 in second place in the AL Central—nine games back of the Twins, at 78-84. 

Image courtesy of © Junfu Han / USA TODAY NETWORK

Those moves were all pretty low-wattage, too. They signed free-agent starting pitchers Kenta Maeda and Jack Flaherty, as well as former Twins infielder Gio Urshela. They also traded for outfielder Mark Canha. To top it off, they showed their faith in infield prospect Colt Keith by signing him to a $28.6-million extension. After all these moves, are the Tigers ready to compete for an AL Central crown? They haven't seriously done so since 2015. Is the second rebuild the charm?

Tigers’ Strengths
Ace Starting Pitcher 
Twins fans, like any fan base, know how hard it is to find an ace starting pitcher and how impactful they can be. The Tigers found theirs, with Tarik Skubal. 

After struggling for the Tigers in parts of 2020 and 2021, Skubal established himself as a frontline starter in 2022. Through 117 innings, he posted a 3.52 ERA, with underlying numbers that backed up his stellar performance. Then, he left an Aug. 1 start with arm soreness that led to flexor tendon surgery, seemingly halting his ascent.

When he returned in 2023, he proved undeterred by the surgery and ready to take another leap. In 80 1/3 innings after his return in 2023, he put up a jaw-dropping 2.80 ERA, with underlying numbers that showed he may even be better than that. 

With good reason, Skubal is a popular pick for the American League Cy Young Award in 2024. Having an ace like him is tremendously valuable, and he is undoubtedly the crown jewel of this Tigers roster.

Ascendant Young Pair of Hitters
With Miguel Cabrera's bloated contract finally done and his Hall of Fame career over, the Tigers have assembled a core of young hitters ready to lead the organization into its new era. Star outfielder Riley Greene and former first overall pick Spencer Torkelson headline the group. The Tigers' offense in 2024 will rely on this duo to step up and steer the ship.

Greene is solid in the outfield, good offensively and defensively. After being called up and struggling in 2022, he put up a solidly above-average offensive season. Unfortunately for the Twins, Greene seemed to be unlucky in 2023, despite very good results. His expected numbers significantly trailed his actual statistics. There may be a reason beyond luck for this discrepancy, but for now, he is a massive talent at 23 years old with an even brighter future than his 2023 results indicate.  

Like Greene, Torkelson took a big step forward in 2023 after a bad first year in the majors in 2022. He took off in the second half, and the Tigers will hope he never looks back. Torkelson, too, underperformed his expected stats significantly, so there's room for even more optimism in 2024. However, it may be because he is a right-handed hitter. This pair, plus Skubal, makes it easy for Tigers fans to dream about overtaking the Twins in 2024.

What’s Holding Them Back
Javier Báez and His Big, Bad Contract
At the end of his career, Miguel Cabrera's contract held back the Tigers, due to his poor performance and the team's voluntary constriction in spending. In 2022, the Tigers added a new big contract, which will age much worse than Cabrera's deal (though on a smaller scale). When Carlos Correa turned down a massive offer from the Tigers in 2022, they turned to Báez. They will deal with Báez’s $23.3 million-AAV contract through 2027, destroying any potential payroll flexibility.  

Báez posted a putrid 61 wRC+ in 2023. He is one of the worst hitters in the league, and running him out to shortstop every day will crush this supposedly up-and-coming Tigers team. To his credit, he’s still a wizard at shortstop, but that can’t make up for this type of offense. An offense with Báez and a catcher spot occupied by the similarly impotent Jake Rogers will always have a top-heavy shape.

Starting Pitching Question Marks

Despite adding Maeda and Flaherty, the Tigers rotation is full of questions beyond Skubal. We know Maeda isn’t durable, Flaherty has struggled with health and performance for a few years, Casey Mize hasn’t pitched in a competitive game since 2022 after undergoing Tommy John surgery, and hasn’t yet broken out in any way at the MLB level. Reese Olson is promising, but was never a top prospect, and projection systems don’t love him--despite a good 104 MLB innings in 2023. The Tigers rely on these four guys, who seem incredibly unreliable, even for secondary starting pitchers.

Should one or more of these guys go down for a significant time, Detroit has plenty of starters in the upper minors ready to step in, but they are nothing to write home about. There’s an outside chance the promising 21-year-old Jackson Jobe will debut late in the season, but it's unlikely he will impact the 2024 Tigers in a material way. Despite being led by a true ace, this rotation's issues are enough to make a Tigers fan queasy. 

Pivot Point
The Tigers will need a lot to go right to take the division in 2024, but it will all come down to their young players. Will Torkelson, Greene, and Kerry Carpenter lead an effective offense? Will prospects Jace Jung, Parker Meadows, and Keith properly supplement the core? And most importantly, will their rotation hold up?

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The Tigers organization has reason for optimism, but plenty of question marks. Do you believe in the 2024 Tigers? Do they worry you? Join the discussion below.

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[bean5302]

Quote

We know Maeda isn’t durable

We do, do we? Maeda's actually been highly durable regardless of this strange myth spun around him.
2016 = 32 GS (No IL trips)
2017 = 25 GS + 5 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 15 days missed)
2018 = 20 GS + 19 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 15 days missed)
2019 = 26 GS + 37 relief appearances (one 10 day IL, 10 days missed)
2020 = 11 GS (No IL trips)
2021 = 21 GS (one 10 day IL -> changed to 60 day IL for UCL tear)
2022 = Missed season from TJ surgery
2023 = 20 GS + 1 relief appearance Lingering shoulder fatigue from build up after surgery.  (one 15 day IL, 55 days missed)

The only major injury he's ever during his 8 year MLB career led to Tommy John surgery and he's never been placed on an IL more than once in a year.

[Karbo]

IMO the Tigers are the biggest threat to the Twins in the division. If they get hot early (or lucky) the young talent they have could get the confidence to really take off. I THINK OF THE '87 Twins who had an Ace starter but not much after, but hit the snot of the ball. The biggest difference is the pen. That team had a pretty good pen, and I'm not sure how the Tigers pen will develop.

[sweetmusicviola16]

We talk about Baez like he has zero chance of a bounceback, ever. Yet Correa is going to comeback to All Star status in our model. If Correa can bounce back, so can Baez. 

Baez has talent, he's not one of the worst hitters in the league. 

[mikelink45]

1 hour ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

We talk about Baez like he has zero chance of a bounceback, ever. Yet Correa is going to comeback to All Star status in our model. If Correa can bounce back, so can Baez. 

Baez has talent, he's not one of the worst hitters in the league. 

You beat me to this post.  We too are stuck with a big contract if Correa does not come back the way we expect. Baez has stunk for Detroit, but his other 8 years he was a stud - can he come back.  If so Detroit jumps up a level.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baezja01.shtml#:~:text=5-,CHC (8 yrs),1,-NL (8 yrs

Baseball Reference has him with a decent upcoming year.

Projections

Year	Tm	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Rel
2024	Proj.	31	533	492	63	118	21	3	17	66	13	2	28	137	.240	.290	.398	.688	196	12	8	0	3	1	85%

 

Beyond Diaz I hope we are not underestimating the other players.  As I was reading I wondered how non-Twins fans would react to some of the names we list - Wallner, Kiriloff, Kepler...

 

[bean5302]

3 hours ago, sweetmusicviola16 said:

We talk about Baez like he has zero chance of a bounceback, ever. Yet Correa is going to comeback to All Star status in our model. If Correa can bounce back, so can Baez. 

Baez has talent, he's not one of the worst hitters in the league. 

 

1 hour ago, mikelink45 said:

You beat me to this post.  We too are stuck with a big contract if Correa does not come back the way we expect. Baez has stunk for Detroit, but his other 8 years he was a stud - can he come back.  If so Detroit jumps up a level.

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/baezja01.shtml#:~:text=5-,CHC (8 yrs),1,-NL (8 yrs

Baseball Reference has him with a decent upcoming year.

Projections

Year	Tm	Age	PA	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	TB	GDP	HBP	SH	SF	IBB	Rel
2024	Proj.	31	533	492	63	118	21	3	17	66	13	2	28	137	.240	.290	.398	.688	196	12	8	0	3	1	85%

 

Beyond Diaz I hope we are not underestimating the other players.  As I was reading I wondered how non-Twins fans would react to some of the names we list - Wallner, Kiriloff, Kepler...

 

Baez is older (a31 now), has been bad at the plate two years in a row, and bad 3 of his last 4 seasons (2 of them horrible) at the plate. Plus, he hasn't had an injury to point to as a potential cause. There's, of course, a chance he bounces back, but it's tiny. Despite the decrease in his K rate, he's actually increased his O-Swing rate while decreasing his Z-Swing rate. It's led to fewer whiffs at the cost of more weak contact, and even his peak exit velocities have dropped off from prime by 3-4mph. Basically, he's not seeing pitches as well, he's not lifting balls quite as much, he's not hitting them as hard when he does barrel them, and he's got (always had) lousy plate discipline. The profile is not one you'd expect a real bounce back. It's looking more and more like 2021 was his one "bounce-back" season.

I wonder how long it takes for a player to become complacent with poor performances? When do they stop really trying to get better and just resign themselves to collecting an enormous paycheck? 

Lots of reasons to write Baez off.

[mikelink45]

2 hours ago, bean5302 said:

 

Baez is older (a31 now), has been bad at the plate two years in a row, and bad 3 of his last 4 seasons (2 of them horrible) at the plate. Plus, he hasn't had an injury to point to as a potential cause. There's, of course, a chance he bounces back, but it's tiny. Despite the decrease in his K rate, he's actually increased his O-Swing rate while decreasing his Z-Swing rate. It's led to fewer whiffs at the cost of more weak contact, and even his peak exit velocities have dropped off from prime by 3-4mph. Basically, he's not seeing pitches as well, he's not lifting balls quite as much, he's not hitting them as hard when he does barrel them, and he's got (always had) lousy plate discipline. The profile is not one you'd expect a real bounce back. It's looking more and more like 2021 was his one "bounce-back" season.

I wonder how long it takes for a player to become complacent with poor performances? When do they stop really trying to get better and just resign themselves to collecting an enormous paycheck? 

Lots of reasons to write Baez off.

Let us wait and see - isn't it great that the season is started and the season of speculation is coming to an end?