Ride the Bullpen: Twins Set to Embrace Tampa's Successful Pitching Strategy

[JD-TWINS]

22 hours ago, chpettit19 said:

I am not looking forward to another season of "Rocco is the worst, leave your starters in!" talk on 75% of game threads or recaps. I'd think the plan/hope is for Pablo to get 180+ innings, and Ryan and Ober to get 150+. The quick hook plan seems like a good strategy for Paddack and the #5 slot in the rotation. I'm sure there will be games where Ryan and Ober get a quick hook as well, and it's probably smart considering how far past his career max inning total Ober went last year and the fact that Ryan has seen a significant performance dip in the 2nd half each of the last 2 years (yes, I know he had the groin thing last year, but he didn't have it in 2022).

So I'd guess Pablo is free to go as far as he can basically every time out (based on 2024 standards, so not suggesting a bunch of complete games), Ryan and Ober will be a combo of some quick hooks to save their arms and some extra leash when they've really got it, and Paddack and the #5 spot will be more quick hook than deep starts due to his lack of innings the last few years and to save the #5 starter from seeing a lineup a 3rd time.

Would expect duplication of ‘22 for Lopez……185-190 innings.

Seems there shouldn’t be any back up in innings between Ober & Ryan though. Ober threw 167 last year including AAA & took some time off late. I fully expect 165 innings from him without serious injury.

I took a look and Ryan threw 5.45 innings per start in his Rookie Year in ‘22 and wore down after getting in 27 starts. In ‘23 he threw 5.55 innings per start and that was pitching through a leg injury…….in 29 starts he got to 161 innings while being out 3 weeks or so. Fully expect a minimum of 165 innings from Joe as well.

Can Paddack keep his ERA below 4.25 & throw 110 innings? If he does, he’ll be better than Maeda was in ‘23 in both totals.

Varland/DeSclafani/Festa/SWR should be able to provide 240 innings between them……….maybe, 90/90/40/20 innings respectively.

This totals to 970 innings or 67% of the innings……..guessing that’s a little higher than average or at least league average?

I think Twins Pen will be very solid but I don’t think they’ll get overworked with this rotation. The depth will really help if there’s an injury or two AND when the Pen gets overworked in a short window of 3-5 days, we can pull somebody up to fill in from St. Paul. 

[JD-TWINS]

8 hours ago, DocBauer said:

I think, understably so, you are confused with NAMES and $M amount spent on the pen. No, the Twins didn't spend $12/13M on Hader. 

But think a moment on Liam Hendricks. He just never made it as a SP. After years of bouncing around, he suddenly turned in to a tremendous RP reaching 30yo. Our own Stewart was, in a previous baseball life, a pretty high prospect. But injuries and such held him back. PLEASE go and read the recent BLOG from Adam Nelson about Stewart. And he's suddenly a tremendous piece of our pen. Thielbar was a throw away arm until re-invented as a BP arm. Jax is the same, despite being a pretty high draft choice initially. 

Jay Jackson went to Japan to re-invent himself. Why he isn't more well regarded is a mystery to me as his numbers the past 3yrs are very good, despite limited IP. 

Okert has 3 really solid seasons behind him, with good K numbers. His ERA in 2023 was higher than his previous years, but all the peripherals are generally solid.

Topa is a mystery. At 31yo he seemed to finally get it together and made himself viable. Much like Stewart. So he's a throw away even thought his path is similar to Stewart? He had a great 2023 for one of the best staffs in 2023. Don't sell him short.

Staumont, if indeed fully healthy and ready to go, is a legitimate 7th-8th inning arm. POTENTIALLY,  he and Stewart are so good Jax might slide down a notch. 

And the Twins have depth if someone craps out. Which is most important. 

Someone will get hurt, or not perform, because that's just baseball. But the depth right now is pretty damn good despite $ spent.

 

Agreed! Don’t understand the negativity when there are 8 guys with ability trying to make the Team after Stewart - Thielbar - Jax - Duran

Canterino, later in the summer will be in the mix……..Topa - Weiss - Staumont - Funderburk - Alcala - Okert - Jackson ………probably missed a couple guys?

Canterino & Varland added to the mix in September & October seems to really take the Pen over the Top & dominant!

[Otaknam]

A strong bullpen is essential for success. But so is starting pitching, especially if the starters can go six plus innings on a regular basis. Hopefully Baldelli will trust the  starters to do that, a much better prescription for success than overusing the bullpen. That said, the Twins BP does look stronger and with more depth on paper this spring. But we shall see. 

[Fezig]

If this is indeed the strategy it will be time for me to find a new team. I got on board with the Rangers mid-season last year, might have to go full steam ahead since they play more of a traditional style of baseball. And funny, they were pretty successful last year.

[Major League Ready]

11 hours ago, Fezig said:

If this is indeed the strategy it will be time for me to find a new team. I got on board with the Rangers mid-season last year, might have to go full steam ahead since they play more of a traditional style of baseball. And funny, they were pretty successful last year.

The Rangers starting pitching was not nearly as good as the Twins last year.  The deadline pick-up of Montgomery was huge for them.  The Royal's WS win in 15 was the product of a very strong BP.  I prefer they win vs practice a given type of roster construction but you should follow whatever team you like.  

[Doctor Wu]

On 2/17/2024 at 12:07 PM, DocBauer said:

And the Twins have depth if someone craps out. Which is most important. 

I think that is indeed one of the most important factors entering into this season. A lot more arms to choose from, and they mostly look like good ones. I have to admit that I'm not entirely sold/thrilled/optimistic that the recently acquired "over 30" guys are going to make our bullpen the best in the league. Hey, I hope they all perform as expected or even better, but who knows how the bullpen mix will look once August rolls around. I'm more excited about some of the young arms we already had in our own system, and the possibility of some of those guys contributing this year too. Yeah, the depth looks good, let's hope for good results. 

[Doctor Wu]

On 2/17/2024 at 12:07 PM, DocBauer said:

And the Twins have depth if someone craps out. Which is most important. 

I think that is indeed one of the most important factors entering into this season. A lot more arms to choose from, and they mostly look like good ones. I have to admit that I'm not entirely sold/thrilled/optimistic that the recently acquired "over 30" guys are going to make our bullpen the best in the league. Hey, I hope they all perform as expected or even better, but who knows how the bullpen mix will look once August rolls around. I'm more excited about some of the young arms we already had in our own system, and the possibility of some of those guys contributing this year too. Yeah, the depth looks good, let's hope for good results.