The Twins' Free Agent Pitcher Hunt: Too Hot, Too Cold, or Just Right?

[John Bonnes]

The Twins suffer from Goldilocks syndrome: they won't pay for "too good" but try to stay away from "too bad." Let's see which of MLB's top 20 free agent pitchers would be "just right?" 

Image courtesy of Twins Daily

The Twins' pursuit of free agent pitchers under Derek Falvey has yet to be particularly fruitful in any sense of the word. On the one hand, they have yet to sign any high-end names, even when they've tried to be aggressive. Second (and probably related), those cheaper free agents they've signed haven't been good. 

(It's worth calling out the exceptions: Michael Pineda. That's it. That's the list.)

The thin line they have walked is thinner this year because they already have a rotation in-house that qualifies as decent with Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack , and Louie Varland. The Twins don't need to sign a lower-end-of-rotation starter like J.A. Happ or Dylan Bundy or Homer Bailey or Chris Archer or Matt Shoemaker or oh my gawd make it stop.....

But they do have to sign someone if they want their rotation to be a strength again because they're losing both Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda to free agency. The current rotation looks good enough to compete in the AL Central, but if the Twins want to make noise in the postseason again, having another playoff-caliber starter is a requirement. 

So let's divide the acceptable free agent pitchers into the three groups Goldilocks did: too hot, too cold, and just right.

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[Trov]

FA pitchers rarely do work out.  There are the few 1 year deals that work out well for vet pitchers that learn how to pitch at upper age, then they get deals that work out, but no one really expected them to.  They are very few and far between.  Then the high end names, outside of the few future HOF guys, most pitchers over 30 do not live up to their contracts over the length of it. 

The Twins are not alone in this, it is just the nature of pitchers.  Even when a guy has a good season in the contract it does not mean they lived up to the 4 plus years they normally sign to. Yes, people can point out the few HOF pitchers that worked out, but when you look at the whole, you will find much more bad contracts than good ones.  

[Vanimal46]

Whelp, the payroll reduction news certainly put a damper on this topic. If Giolito is projected to get $12 million, then we might as well sit out free agency and just try to make a trade or two. Some of the guys in the "just right" category will now put the team at the very high end of their budget or above. 

[terrydactyls]

You have Yamamoto on the "too hot" list at a $20M AAV during his 25 to 35 year old seasons.  And you have Rodriguez on the "just right" list at a $20M AAV during his 31 to 36 year old seasons.  Personally, if Maki thinks Yamamoto is the real deal, they should try to grab him.  As I pointed out in another article, the Twins have $42M of salaries coming off the books because of free agents and another $20.5M available by trading Polanco and Kepler (and $10M more if they could find any team that would take Vasquez).  That gives the Twins plenty of room to land Yamamoto.

[JD-TWINS]

How about 2 of 3 guys at $11 - $12M each to spread risk of failure with some real upside??

Maeada - Lugo - Severino

Severino, is higher risk but he’s got #1 stuff if he’s right/healthy. He’ll be motivated!!

Maeda seems lowest risk - known guy & solid teammate, already in place.

BEST OPTION is Jordan Montgomery for 4 years with 5th year player option……. he gets security and some flexibility at end of deal……..escalating salary from $22M - $22M - $25M - $25M. (5th year option at $25M)

Either path on pitching can be done, if Twins trade Polanco, and we’re not over $140M total budget.

2 hours ago, terrydactyls said:

You have Yamamoto on the "too hot" list at a $20M AAV during his 25 to 35 year old seasons.  And you have Rodriguez on the "just right" list at a $20M AAV during his 31 to 36 year old seasons.  Personally, if Maki thinks Yamamoto is the real deal, they should try to grab him.  As I pointed out in another article, the Twins have $42M of salaries coming off the books because of free agents and another $20.5M available by trading Polanco and Kepler (and $10M more if they could find any team that would take Vasquez).  That gives the Twins plenty of room to land Yamamoto.

Have to mention since I’ve seen the suggestion before……Unless TWINS pay somebody, Vazquez is our catcher for two years….I guess a front line catcher could get hurt & force a trade for some front running team ………but I still think a trade for Vazquez is a huge stretch.

[JD-TWINS]

The more I think about it the more I like Luis Severino coming over and getting paired up with our guys on their way to DriveLine for some fresh guidance.

Then Maki has Lopez work with him on physical discipline and mental clarity. Severino has great stuff - don’t know if anyone has connected with him on the coaching side? Can he stay healthy?

He’ll be pitching for a new long-term contract so he’ll be motivated in ‘24!!!

[TopGunn#22]

Severino is similar to Giolito in that there's real upside with the talent they have.  The difference between Severino and Giolito is that Giolito is still a pretty reliable workhorse.  Pitched over 180 innings last year.  It's been quite a long time since Severino did anything close that.  But I like a Severino signing for his upside much more than I would a Shoemaker/Bundy type signing.

I think with the payroll set to be about $140 million that all but assures a Polanco trade (which I expected) but also a Max Kepler trade (which I could see but thought he might stick).  That opens the door for Wallner to play RF and the addition of a guy who could play a little CF and LF (a Tyler O'Neill, Hunter Renfroe type).   

Signing a Giolito or a Severino would make sense if they load up and make a trade for a Pablo Lopez level pitcher.  With both Kepler and Polanco in play it will be interesting to see how this plays out.  

[Stew]

Why do we only do a qualifying offer? Couldn't we see if we could offer sonny gray a 23 one year deal. We at least know what we are getting. And if you think every pitchers going to get hurt. You end up doing nothing. And if not him Maeda should have another good year in him. He can't be more than ten million a year. If we got Màeda back for 10 we would be about 127 million. Trade Polanko, and minor league players for either bullpen help or a big bat. If we play our cards right we could  have enough for cf and 1st base.