MLB Expansion - Where?

[Dave Borton]

Now that Tampa has solid plan for an indoor stadium in St Pete (groans) and by all measures, Oak goes to Las Vegas.

Two questions. Where do the two expansion teams go? My guess will be:
1. Nashville, 5th fastest growing metro area in US in last 5 yrs
2. Mexico City IF they can get their act together for a new stadium or Montreal, same stadium issue.
Estadio Alfredo Harp in M.C. built in 2019, 18,000 capacity.
Olympic Stadium (brrrrr...) holds 47,000?

Where does the Las Vegas AAA team go?
Tucson. Hi Corbett Field. Cap. 9.500 but old, buddy, old. Summer heat is brutal but no worse than Las Vegas. Tucson would support the team.

[Nine of twelve]

Expansion contenders: Tennessee, North Carolina, Montreal, Mexico City. Mexico City is the largest city in North America but definitely a dark horse. What would players think about living there? Another dark horse: Texas. The population is increasing there faster than any other state but after Houston and DFW it's hard to figure where a third team would go. I wonder if fans outside those two places would shift their allegiance from whichever team they currently follow, and I expect the Astros and Rangers would not want any encroachment.

Expansion pretenders: Portland, Salt Lake City. Neither place has enough people or money to make MLB succeed.

[Lefty61]

Mexico defintely deserves a team, I would put Monterrey on that list, 2nd biggest metro area in Mexico with over 5MM,  strong industrial and cultural base, less than 2 hour flight from Dallas.  

[NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin]

My bet would be a Mexican team (Monterrey, DF, Laredo, Tijuana) and Nashville, but regardless, a division realignment would likely result in some gaps in the "South" divisions in both conferences.

AL:

East- BOS, NYY, BAL, TOR

North- MIN, CWS, DET, MIL (switch)

South- TB, TEX, HOU, TBD

West- KC, SEA, LAA, LV

NL:

East- NYM, PHI, ATL, WSH

North- CHC, CIN, PIT, STL

South- MIA, ARI, CLE (switch), TBD

West- LAD, SF, COL, SD

 

I tried my best to preserve historic rivalries, and I feel the only team that gets the short end of the stick is Cleveland, though the rest of the division makes sense, as Phoenix and Miami have large Hispanic populations and I would put the Mexican team in this division. The AL South could become a powerhouse with three big-market teams and the Rays, as the Nashville club would be similar to the Padres financially in that they are a mid-market without a football or basketball team.

I think the division realignment could be bad for the Twins, as they'd probably end up as the least financially capable franchise in their division. One could hope that we could be in the SEA/LAA/LV division instead of KC, and we'd probably be the best franchise in the division.

[Dave Borton]

7 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Mexico City is the largest city in North America but definitely a dark horse. What would players think about living there?

30% of MLB players are Latino. Mex City would have no problem signing players. Would be a magnet for them culturally, though challenging for some US ballplayers.

[Logi_Clevs]

US: Nashville, New Orleans, Carolinas, OKC?? SLC???

International: Montreal, Mexico City, Cuba? Dominican??

[Dave Borton]

2 hours ago, Logi_Clevs said:

...Cuba? Dominican??

I love the idea but stadiums, TV/ad revenue and limited disposable income for admission would be problematic. 

[Nine of twelve]

2 hours ago, Logi_Clevs said:

US: Nashville, New Orleans, Carolinas, OKC?? SLC???

International: Montreal, Mexico City, Cuba? Dominican??

Insufficient population and money in Cuba or the DR to make a franchise viable. Same for NO, OKC and SLC. 

[Nine of twelve]

19 hours ago, NeverSeenATwinsPlayoffWin said:

My bet would be a Mexican team (Monterrey, DF, Laredo, Tijuana) and Nashville, but regardless, a division realignment would likely result in some gaps in the "South" divisions in both conferences.

AL:

East- BOS, NYY, BAL, TOR

North- MIN, CWS, DET, MIL (switch)

South- TB, TEX, HOU, TBD

West- KC, SEA, LAA, LV

NL:

East- NYM, PHI, ATL, WSH

North- CHC, CIN, PIT, STL

South- MIA, ARI, CLE (switch), TBD

West- LAD, SF, COL, SD

AL east: BOS, NYY, BAL, TOR

AL north: MIN, CWS, DET, CLE

AL south: TB, TEX, HOU, Tennessee or Carolina

AL west: COL, SEA, LAA, LV

NL east: NYM, PHI, WAS, Montreal

NL north: CHC, CIN, PIT, MIL

NL south: MIA, ATL, STL, KC

NL west: LAD, SF, SD, ARI

[Dave Borton]

17 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Insufficient population and money in Cuba or the DR to make a franchise viable. Same for NO, OKC and SLC. 

Cuba and DR, adequate population. $$ for admission would be problematic for 35,000 seats.

Monterrey above is a good suggestion as is Mexico City. Monterrey's stadium holds 21-27K, opened in 1990.

[2wins87]

Feels like Nashville is probably going to happen.

In all honesty the markets that could most easily support a new team are ones that already have teams. 

When Oakland moves to Las Vegas, there is an opening in the bay area.  Oakland wouldn't happen again but San Jose could happen, or maybe nearby like Fremont which would be a bit closer to Oakland also.

The other market that could easily support another team is New York, more specifically in Jersey though.  Maybe another meadowlands stadium, or somewhere in or near Newark?

I like the idea of a team in Mexico, but it'd probably be a lot harder than a new team in the US or Canada.  Mexico City, in addition to being pretty far from other teams, is 2000 feet higher above sea level than Denver, so they would have all the problems the Rockies have developing pitching and adjusting to home/road games.  They played two MLB games there this year and yes, there were a lot of runs.  I hadn't considered Monterrey before.  It seems interesting but I don't know enough to judge how well it could support a team.

I'm also not crazy about going to the NFL style 4x4 divisions, with two (or more?) wildcards.  If they are going to expand the playoffs and the league I'd kind of rather see them get to 36 teams with 3 divisions of 6.  That likely couldn't happen all at once though.

[laloesch]

47 minutes ago, 2wins87 said:

Feels like Nashville is probably going to happen.

In all honesty the markets that could most easily support a new team are ones that already have teams. 

When Oakland moves to Las Vegas, there is an opening in the bay area.  Oakland wouldn't happen again but San Jose could happen, or maybe nearby like Fremont which would be a bit closer to Oakland also.

The other market that could easily support another team is New York, more specifically in Jersey though.  Maybe another meadowlands stadium, or somewhere in or near Newark?

I like the idea of a team in Mexico, but it'd probably be a lot harder than a new team in the US or Canada.  Mexico City, in addition to being pretty far from other teams, is 2000 feet higher above sea level than Denver, so they would have all the problems the Rockies have developing pitching and adjusting to home/road games.  They played two MLB games there this year and yes, there were a lot of runs.  I hadn't considered Monterrey before.  It seems interesting but I don't know enough to judge how well it could support a team.

I'm also not crazy about going to the NFL style 4x4 divisions, with two (or more?) wildcards.  If they are going to expand the playoffs and the league I'd kind of rather see them get to 36 teams with 3 divisions of 6.  That likely couldn't happen all at once though.

That's interesting.  I never realized how high in elevation Mexico City is.  I think Nashville is the easy decision for expansion followed by either Raleigh or Charlotte, NC two of the fastest growing cities outside of the states of Texas and Florida.  I don't think Montreal is a good spot for another expansion team.  In the 35+ years the Expos were in Montreal they had TWO (2) good seasons of attendance and the rest were terrible.  Mexico City is probably more viable than Montreal if you ask me.  Canadians aren't big into baseball (I know, I'm married to one, and know many from my time in Ontario).  Outside of Toronto hockey is king in Canada.  

[Original_JB]

Nashville is a no brainer with the growth, younger skewing, money making population. San Jose (10th largest city in US) requested that MLB remove the Giants territorial rights from their city back in June so they can lure/pursue/expand a team, especially with the A's leaving the region. I think Monterrey is a better idea than Mexico City, due to elevation (1800ft vs. 7300ft above sea level), a generally more affluent population, and an overall closer proximity. Vancouver? (150 miles from Seattle)

[Nine of twelve]

7 hours ago, davidborton said:

Cuba and DR, adequate population. $$ for admission would be problematic for 35,000 seats.

Monterrey above is a good suggestion as is Mexico City. Monterrey's stadium holds 21-27K, opened in 1990.

When I was talking about money I wasn't thinking about people buying tickets for a game. I was thinking in terms of corporate support. Those are much larger and much more important revenue sources than ticket sales. It takes A LOT of revenue to run a Major League franchise. I would guess that broadcast rights in the DR would bring in almost nothing. Does anyone think the DR has enough corporate money floating around to direct toward suite rental, naming rights, on-field and on-uniform advertising, "official" partnerships and so forth? I sure don't. Cuba? Where a large percentage of cars are 60+ years old because new ones are too expensive? Sorry, but not even. And I think the same thing is true throughout Latin America, probably even Mexico. Even in the US, secondary markets like Salt Lake City, Portland, and so forth, are not going to be able to generate the necessary revenue. It's just not there.