Padres Firesale?

[nicksaviking]

I've been waiting to see when they'd blow it up, and while the SD newspapers are saying they'd still keep a 200M payroll, we'll see:

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/sports/padres/story/2023-09-25/padres-payroll-juan-soto-nick-martinez-seth-lugo-michael-wacha-debt

Sounds like GM A.J. Preller may get the boot, which is understandable after his repeated failures spending the owners money. And there's way more drama than just the losing according to Ken Rosenthal:

https://theathletic.com/4874799/2023/09/19/san-diego-padres-disaster-season-preller/

With the suggested 200M payroll, MLBTR believes the core group of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts, Yu Darvish, Ha-Seong Kim and Joe Musgrove would be retained, though Juan Soto is quite likely to be moved and they won't resign any of their free agents. (Any doubt Josh Hader is going to be the most posted about non-Twin this winter?)

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/09/padres-plan-to-reduce-payroll-to-around-200mm-front-office-changes-possible.html

I have my doubts they keep the core group together though. If they do hire a new GM, and they are looking to cut costs, I'd bet they trade more than Soto, and I'd bet ownership would start over with a lower payroll than 200M. Aside from Soto and the injured Musgrove, their stars had down years last year, so I guess it's possible they could hope for a rebound and move them down the road, but Machado and Bogaerts are now over 30-years-old and have some ugly contracts coming up. If they don't turn things around, SD will have to eat most of those contracts if they gamble wrong. 

Anyway, I've been waiting for this soap opera to start for awhile now, hope any of these guys who don't find their way to Minnesota, stay in the NL.

[Mike Sixel]

I'd blow it up and start over, but most teams should do that and don't. It's much harder to fix in baseball than other sports and you lose a lot of ticket sales by not trying. 

[chpettit19]

I don't see them blowing it up. I don't think they should, either. That team is loaded with talent. A bit like the opposite of the Vikings from last year to this year. Performance in 1 run games fluctuates, and you wouldn't expect them to go 6-25 (or whatever they're at) again next year. Going 0-fer in extra innings isn't likely to repeat itself. Having a +90 run differential and finishing below .500 is incredibly hard to do, and it's likely they're much better next year.

Maybe you move on from Preller (he's never really won anything, just the king of the offseason) to try to get a culture change. Maybe you move a couple pieces if they aren't good fits. But the chances of collecting this much talent again anytime soon if you blow it up are awfully small. Make some tweaks, but that team is too talented to blow up.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

The Twins actually have a good chance to make it to the American League Championship Series this fall. And I think Pohlad should clean house, even if they do. Actually should have cleaned house last fall, but it’s a bit too late for that.

How do people think the media will react if the Twins make it to the ALCS this year but miss the playoffs next year? 

[Dave Borton]

On 9/26/2023 at 1:27 PM, Mike Sixel said:

I'd blow it up and start over....

To blow it up, you have to move huge salaries. 
Machado, ~$300MM thru age 40, 10 more years
Tatis, Jr, ~$300MM for 10 more years
Bogarts, ~$275MM thru age 40 (10 yrs)
Darvish, ~$60MM thru age 43 (6 yrs)

One glance at Cabrera's at age 40 stats (.241/.661) reveals some problems with basic roster construction that needs to be "blown up" with 4 aging stars bloating the payroll in the next 5-10 years. The Ilitch family went thru this with the Tigers.

Would hate to have to be the next GM/CBO in charge of remedying that roster given the amount of cash you would need to move along with traded player.

The Mets, the Yanks, and the Padres all showed this year that $$ doesn't necessarily win a division as the Rays ($79MM team payroll) and the Orioles ($71MM) demonstrate.

 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

They play in a difficult division and this is their window.

I think San Diego should stick to the plan and go for it. I don’t know what’s holding them back or what they need to be better. Probably pitching? I always thought Detroit stuck with Ausmus too long in their last competitive window. 

[Mike Sixel]

35 minutes ago, Hosken Bombo Disco said:

They play in a difficult division and this is their window.

I think San Diego should stick to the plan and go for it. I don’t know what’s holding them back or what they need to be better. Probably pitching? I always thought Detroit stuck with Ausmus too long in their last competitive window. 

It's a fair take, but even billionaires can't lose this much money year after year and be happy....I could see them going all in again.

[Dave Borton]

23 minutes ago, Mike Sixel said:

It's a fair take, but even billionaires can't lose this much money year after year and be happy....I could see them going all in again.

Owner is worth $3BB. We'll see how willing he is to continue wealth redistribution (winks).

[CRF]

I can't see them totally blowing the roster up. I do think they may have gone a step or two too far with loading up on all the star-power they have. I can see them shedding some payroll and trying to "tune" the roster a little bit. Maybe make a trade or two before next season. Kind of mini rebuild kind of thing. They have a lot of talent on that team and they're not far away from being in the playoffs. As we all know...anything can happen when you get to the dance.