Why Morneau's trade value is ebbing rapidly....

[stringer bell]

I'm pretty sure Mike is right about the contract. The Twins can't offer more than a 20% cut if they negotiate an extension for Morneau. Once he is a free agent, then any contract would be on the table. The Twins would have to decide whether or not to make the $13M qualifying offer, which to me is a no-brainer. Many are saying that the Twins will just bank the savings and history says they will. This is a new situation--fans are expecting more since revenues are greater--and the Twins are building while not being a small market club. If 2014 is the "runup" year, it would make sense to add a better quality pitcher or two and maybe an infielder or first baseman. There always seem to be first basemen available at less than half the cost of the free agent qualifying offer. This year Lyle Overbay, James Loney, Casey Kotchman, and Mark Reynolds were all available.

[darin617]

A qualifying offer-about $13.3M-- to a 1B with an OPS of .748 on pace to finish with fewer than 10 HR? I love Morneau, but he'll take that offer in a second (or he'll decline and no team will pay the pick). Even if he gets going and had a season like he did last year, he's not worth it.]

 

So if you say Morneau might hit 10 HR this season and isn't worth the $13.3M qualifying offer, what would that value Joe Mauer if he was also on the verge of free agency? Yes, Mauer would be worth $13M+ but I would highly doubt he would get much more and obviously no chance at his obscene $23M deal.

[darin617]

.....and just not acceptable for a First Baseman.

 

To reiterate, his SLG is 24th among all First Basemen, and his OPS at .749 is 21st. The list is literally littered with cheaper and better acquisition targets- why would a desperate GM take a chance on an expensive option with a MIer-like batting line, + concussion issues, over multiple numbers of 1B options for healthy, proven sluggers?

 

Thank god we have Mauer signed to be our #2 hitter. $23M man to fill the #2 hole in the lineup. BRILLIANT!

[jokin]

This year Lyle Overbay, James Loney, Casey Kotchman, and Mark Reynolds were all available.

 

And will be again in 2014....

[Alex]

 

So if you say Morneau might hit 10 HR this season and isn't worth the $13.3M qualifying offer, what would that value Joe Mauer if he was also on the verge of free agency? Yes, Mauer would be worth $13M+ but I would highly doubt he would get much more and obviously no chance at his obscene $23M deal.

 

Mauer plays catcher. Morneau plays 1B.

 

Morneau has a .348 OBP and .401 SLG (.749 OPS)

 

Mauer has a .415 OBP and .497 SLG (.913 OPS)

 

Mauer's OPS would put him 4th among 1B and his SLG would rank 10th. Oh, did I mention he plays catcher? Mauer would still get a ton of money. Fangraphs calculates his worth this season so far to be $10M (on pace for more than $30M value this season, so....

 

While we could argue about whether he'd get $23M now for as long as he did, a) with contracts going up the way they are with a lot of new revenue next season it's not out of the question and

 

the contract really has nothing to do with the Morneau situation. The fact that it gets brought up as a crutch for almost every reason this team fails is exhausting.

 

Mauer is the best thing the big league team has going for it and he's been worth every penny. You're seeing one of the best hitters in baseball daily, and the catcher with the best average, 3rd best OPS and 2nd best OBP in the history of the game in an era that is becoming more pitcher friendly. Get over the contract.

[jokin]

Mauer plays catcher. Morneau plays 1B.

 

Morneau has a .348 OBP and .401 SLG (.749 OPS)

 

Mauer has a .415 OBP and .497 SLG (.913 OPS)

 

Mauer's OPS would put him 4th among 1B and his SLG would rank 10th. Oh, did I mention he plays catcher? Mauer would still get a ton of money. Fangraphs calculates his worth this season so far to be $10M (on pace for more than $30M value this season, so....

 

While we could argue about whether he'd get $23M now for as long as he did, a) with contracts going up the way they are with a lot of new revenue next season it's not out of the question and

 

the contract really has nothing to do with the Morneau situation. The fact that it gets brought up as a crutch for almost every reason this team fails is exhausting.

 

Mauer is the best thing the big league team has going for it and he's been worth every penny. You're seeing one of the best hitters in baseball daily, and the catcher with the best OBP and 2nd best average in the history of the game. Get over the contract.

 

To be fair, that $10M value is highly inflated on the position-related premium applied to the WAR calculation for catchers.

 

The big problem with the Mauer contract is the Twins lack of understanding that with Mauer healthy and signed long-term, they need to quickly re-build around him, and not pull back and cut back.... and then surreptitiously blame the contract for their unwillingness to double down and spend more while you have a player of his caliber to build around.

[Alex]

To be fair, that $10M value is highly inflated on the position-related premium applied to the WAR calculation for catchers.

 

The big problem with the Mauer contract is the Twins lack of understanding that with Mauer healthy and signed long-term, they need to quickly re-build around him, and not pull back and cut back.... and then surreptitiously blame the contract for their unwillingness to double down and spend more while you have a player of his caliber to build around.

 

He's played 32 games at catcher and 12 at DH, so it's not like they're inflating the value that much. Honestly, I'd prefer he didn't play catcher at all this season. But to also be fair, a .900+ OPS is going to be darn valuable wherever you play.

 

But I agree, the travesty is the inability to build around him.

[darin617]

He's played 32 games at catcher and 12 at DH, so it's not like they're inflating the value that much. Honestly, I'd prefer he didn't play catcher at all this season. But to also be fair, a .900+ OPS is going to be darn valuable wherever you play.

 

But I agree, the travesty is the inability to build around him.

 

So it is not a good thing to slash your payroll every year so you can keep more money in your pocket.

The Twins are exactly like a redneck with a beat up piece of crap car worth $500 with a stereo and rims worth $3000. Either fix the car or sell the rims and stereo(Trade him).

[Kenneth Kitsom]

It makes all the sense in the world to trade him. With his concussion history, giving him a multi-year contract would be a disastrous mistake. I wouldn't over pay him with that one year qualifying offer either (which is probably what Ryan will do). His time is up here. Time to move on. It was a nice run. Or atleast it was a nice run up until he took the knee to the head in Toronto.

[ScottyB]

Morneau is on a pace for 43 doubles, about 10 homers and 112 RBI - not worth the $15 million he is currently being paid, however, I'll take the 112 RBI's and the good fielding he's giving us. His trade value IS going down, so hang onto him for his leadership to the young guys coming up and make him a qualifying offer. Best case scenario he says no and we get a draft choice in the 2014 draft which will be much stronger than this year's (better than anything we'd get in a trade). Worst case he says yes and we negotiate a 2-year deal for $15-$16M total. He knows he's not the player he was before the concussion and likely would take a cut. He's still a very good veteran presence which you need on a contending team - think Roy Smalley and Don Baylor in 1987.

[RodneyKline]

He is one of two good hitters we have. There is no option not to sign him for at least next year and hopefully more.

[Oxtung]

Morneau is on a pace for 43 doubles, about 10 homers and 112 RBI - not worth the $15 million he is currently being paid, however, I'll take the 112 RBI's and the good fielding he's giving us. His trade value IS going down, so hang onto him for his leadership to the young guys coming up and make him a qualifying offer. Best case scenario he says no and we get a draft choice in the 2014 draft which will be much stronger than this year's (better than anything we'd get in a trade). Worst case he says yes and we negotiate a 2-year deal for $15-$16M total. He knows he's not the player he was before the concussion and likely would take a cut. He's still a very good veteran presence which you need on a contending team - think Roy Smalley and Don Baylor in 1987.

 

No, worse case scenario is you offer him the qualification offer, he gets hit in the head 2 games into the season and now you got nothing for him, you owe him the absurd $13M, he is done playing and for all of next year you are missing a piece to the puzzle.

 

Second worse case scenario is you sign him to the qualification offer, he stays healthy but continues to be well below average and you're paying him big money, just like this season, and now he is 34, you got nothing for him and you still have to make a decision on what to do with him.

 

I don't see anyway a qualification offer is a good deal. All it does is push back the decision to be made. The Twins should either trade him or, if they feel his "leadership" is valuable enough to offset his poor production, then they should sign him to a multi-year deal at a greatly reduced price.

[Kwak]

Morneau is on a pace for 43 doubles, about 10 homers and 112 RBI - not worth the $15 million he is currently being paid, however, I'll take the 112 RBI's and the good fielding he's giving us. His trade value IS going down, so hang onto him for his leadership to the young guys coming up and make him a qualifying offer. Best case scenario he says no and we get a draft choice in the 2014 draft which will be much stronger than this year's (better than anything we'd get in a trade). Worst case he says yes and we negotiate a 2-year deal for $15-$16M total. He knows he's not the player he was before the concussion and likely would take a cut. He's still a very good veteran presence which you need on a contending team - think Roy Smalley and Don Baylor in 1987.

It was clearly stated that a qualifying offer is $13.3MM for one year. No one would sign a two-year contract for $15-16MM, they take the $13.3MM and play the game again the next season.

[Mr. Brooks]

Morneau is on a pace for 43 doubles, about 10 homers and 112 RBI - not worth the $15 million he is currently being paid, however, I'll take the 112 RBI's and the good fielding he's giving us. His trade value IS going down, so hang onto him for his leadership to the young guys coming up and make him a qualifying offer. Best case scenario he says no and we get a draft choice in the 2014 draft which will be much stronger than this year's (better than anything we'd get in a trade). Worst case he says yes and we negotiate a 2-year deal for $15-$16M total. He knows he's not the player he was before the concussion and likely would take a cut. He's still a very good veteran presence which you need on a contending team - think Roy Smalley and Don Baylor in 1987.

 

The next 2 words I hear Morneau say will be the first 2 I have ever heard him say.

Who knows, maybe he's different in the clubhouse, I guess none of us know.

[LaBombo]

Morneau is on a pace for 43 doubles, about 10 homers and 112 RBI

That's almost certainly not going to happen. No player in the past 5 years has batted in 100 or more runs while hitting 10 or fewer home runs. Only two hitters have come close, Michael Young with 106 RBI and just 11 HR's, and Vic Martinez with 103/12. But Young batted .338 that year, and Martinez was right behind him at .330.

 

Morneau's babip is currently sitting at .331, waaaaay above his career .297 average. And a pace of just a third of his career HR norm will just make it that much harder to maintain his current batting average of .293.

 

If he were to suddenly regain his home run stroke, Morneau could put up numbers more like his career average, but that seems unlikely after over 1000 post-concussion at bats. He's a fan favorite, was a cornerstone of most of the playoff teams in the past decade, and had himself a great half-career. But he's just not the same player anymore, and the Twins need to realize that when they decide what to do.

[Oxtung]

That's almost certainly not going to happen. No player in the past 5 years has batted in 100 or more runs while hitting 10 or fewer home runs. Only two hitters have come close, Michael Young with 106 RBI and just 11 HR's, and Vic Martinez with 103/12. But Young batted .338 that year, and Martinez was right behind him at .330.

 

Morneau's babip is currently sitting at .331, waaaaay above his career .297 average. With no homers, that average will be almost impossible to sustain, as will his current batting average of .293.

 

If he were to suddenly regain his home run stroke, Morneau could put up numbers more like his career average, but that seems unlikely after over 1000 post-concussion at bats. He's a fan favorite, was a cornerstone of most of the playoff teams in the past decade, and had himself a great half-career. But he's just not the same player anymore, and the Twins need to realize that when they decide what to do.

 

Just to pick a nit...Home runs aren't included in babip numbers.

[LaBombo]

Just to pick a nit...Home runs aren't included in babip numbers.

Yup, good catch. Was meaning to say his batting average will be hard to maintain with fewer home runs, since the in-play stuff tends to even out.