The road to Minnesota is long and hard

[jjswol]

If you are interested in the Twins draft history from 1998-2012 and are curious as to how many players were drafted and signed each year, and how many of these drafted players have made it to the big leagues, then stop by at The road to Minnesota is long and hard | Twinstrivia.com and check out my blog. You might be surprised how long it takes a drafted player to make that big league debut.

[Mike Sixel]

Wow! Amazing work. What a great read.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Interesting study.

 

I think the "just 10 regular position players in 15 drafts" stat is a little misleading, though. For one, it's not realistic to expect the last few years of draftees to be starting yet, so it's really more like a 10 year sample, or about 1 per year.

 

And starting your study in 1998 eliminates a lot of regular position players from previous drafts: 1997 had Cuddyer/LeCroy, 1996 Jones/Allen, 1995 Mientkiewicz, 1994 Walker/AJ/Koskie, 1993 Hunter, etc.

 

It would be interesting to compare drafts and if/how they influenced later MLB success for the team. Have the Twins become less reliant on the draft? How much do the Twins poor draft years correspond with big club struggles later?

[jjswol]

Spycake, the 15 years I looked at is no magic number, I had to cut things off somewhere and I chose 15 years. If you go back to 1965 and do comparisons then you are comparing apples to oranges. I probably should not have used the word "just" in the phrase "just 10 regular position players". I credit the Twins for their position player drafting, it is pitching that has been an issue. Thank you for taking the time to stop over at the site to check out the blog, I appreciate it.

[SwainZag]

Spycake, the 15 years I looked at is no magic number, I had to cut things off somewhere and I chose 15 years. If you go back to 1965 and do comparisons then you are comparing apples to oranges. I probably should not have used the word "just" in the phrase "just 10 regular position players". I credit the Twins for their position player drafting, it is pitching that has been an issue. Thank you for taking the time to stop over at the site to check out the blog, I appreciate it.

 

I think all he meant was what you pretty much proved in your article. Other than Mauer it's very rare that a guy sees the pros in less than 4 years since being drafted. That only means that using the last 4-5 draft classes becomes unreasonable.

[Mike Sixel]

not true for other teams and their elite players.....Elite players come up in under 4 years, others, not so much. Maybe we should look at how many MLB players are up from the last 4 drafts......

[nicksaviking]

Nice work and a lot of effort. As you touched on above, the sampling is a little swayed simply because we don't yet have data on Buxton, Rosario, Gibson etc but that does little to show the Twins drafts have not been terribly effective.

 

The offensive side has perhaps been adaquate to above average but the pitching track record is beyond abysmal. Since moving to Minnesota, this team has drafted only 4 starting pitchers who have made a total of 4 All-Star appearances with the Twins and none since Brad Radke gave up 2 hits and a walk in his one inning of work in the 1998 Mid-Summers Classic.

 

Those four pitchers are Radke, Scott Erickson, Frank Viola and Bert Blyleven. Terry Ryan was the man in the GM seat for none of them.

[Mike Sixel]

Baker and Garza were good picks, imo. Baker de-railed by injury, and Garza by who knows what, then injury. But really, this team has not been good at the one thing they say is their central strategy. You have to be significantly better than other teams at drafting and developing players if you do not trade prospects for great players, and you do not sign expensive FAs. That is the cornerstone of their entire strategy, and it has not worked well enough.

[nicksaviking]

not true for other teams and their elite players.....Elite players come up in under 4 years, others, not so much. Maybe we should look at how many MLB players are up from the last 4 drafts......

 

Well just looking at the first 5 rounds I count 62 players that have made their MLB debut from the past 4 drafts. Thats an average of 2 per team.

[jokin]

Well just looking at the first 5 rounds I count 62 players that have made their MLB debut from the past 4 drafts. Thats an average of 2 per team.

 

not true for other teams and their elite players.....Elite players come up in under 4 years, others, not so much. Maybe we should look at how many MLB players are up from the last 4 drafts......

 

The Twins disasters with pitching draftees is rampant since 2008.

 

2008: 30 First rounders have reached the major leagues, most in 4 years or less. 43 more through Round 5. The Twins had 3 first round picks, the Twins were 1/3, as Aaron Hicks finally made it in year 6. To repeat, there are 43 additional players in MLB that have made the majors through Round 5 of the draft, that makes 73 in total- no Twins- can't blame the draft position here too much. Hicks is basically the only Twins draftee that looks like a Twins impact player, although there are still about 4 left that have a small shot to make the MLB roster at some point.

 

2009: 18 First rounders have reached the major leagues in 4 years or less. 20 more have reached through Round 5. (6th rounder Hermann had his emergency call-up last Sep). Gibson (1st) and Dozier (8th) are also in this class.

 

2010: 8 first rounders have reached the major leagues in 3 years or less. 11 more have reached through Round 5. Tonight's Twins' opponent, the NL East 1st place Atlanta Braves have 2 from this class in their starting lineup- Simmons (2nd Round) and Gattis (23rd Round). Eddie Rosario (4th Round) looks like the only Twin prospect from this class that's a lock to make any major impact at the major league level.

 

2011: 5 First rounders have reached the major leagues. 3 more from the 3rd Round. 4 of the 5 first rounders were in the top 14 picks, but the Twins missed on Jackie Bradley by drafting Levi Michael. Michael was just one of 11 college players that the Twins drafted in the first 13 rounds. None are advancing very rapidly in the organization, although at quick glance, diminutive Adam Pettersen (25th round) is doing well at AA, not sure if he's regarded as a legit prospect, though. Harrison (1st) is still in Low-A, but may be due a promotion to A+ when Sano is moved up. The Twins took Hudson Boyd (1st) and Madison Boer (2nd) over the Reds Tony Cingrani (3rd) and Corey Williams (3rd) over the Mariner's late 3rd round pick, Carter Capps.

[Mike Sixel]

Trust me, I'm not defending their drafts, or their development efforts. This is the core of their issue, imo.