How Have the Twins Been Impacted by the New Rules?

[Cody Christie]

Major League Baseball instituted multiple new rules at the beginning of the 2023 campaign. How have those rules impacted the Twins?

Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports

MLB’s new rules will impact every organization in different ways. Some teams can steal bases at a higher rate, or their hitters may perform better with added shift limitations. Here’s how the new rules have impacted the Twins. All statistics are through games played on Tuesday, April 18.

Pitch Clock
Minnesota has seen slight gains from pitch clock violations this season. Twins pitchers and batters have not been charged with a pitch clock violation, while opponents have surrendered two balls to the Twins. FanGraphs projects the Twins as gaining 0.2 runs from those violations, which ranks in MLB’s top-15. Currently, Pittsburgh leads MLB with 0.7 runs gained from pitch clock violations. Only three American League teams (Toronto, Chicago, and New York) have more runs gained through violations.

MLB’s most prominent reasons to add a pitch clock were to decrease the game length and increase downtime during the game. Last season, games averaged over three hours, making it tougher to enjoy for families with younger children. Through 17 games, the Twins have averaged 136.5 minutes per game, including three extra-inning games. Only one game has gone over three hours (4/18 versus Boston), and four games were less than two hours and 15 minutes. 

Steals
Minnesota added Christian Vazquez this winter to upgrade their defense behind the plate. Ryan Jeffers has been known for his receiving ability but has struggled to control the run game. He worked to improve his throwing technique this winter and has shown improved results by throwing out three-of-six (50 CS%) potential base stealers. Vazquez has successfully thrown out one-of-six (17%) base runners, which is half his career average (34%). It will be interesting to see if Jeffers can continue his strong start to the season and if Vazquez can get closer to his career mark. 

During spring training, the Twins brought in former manager Paul Molitor to serve as a base running guru. Unfortunately, Minnesota’s roster isn’t built to steal bases, and the team has MLB’s lowest stolen base total. Michael A. Taylor is the lone Twins player with a steal, while Willi Castro and Matt Wallner have been caught stealing once. According to FanGraph’s baserunning metric (BsR), the Twins have been worth -2.3 runs on the bases, which ranks 24th overall. Carlos Correa (-1.8 BsR) and Christian Vazquez (-1.3 BsR) have been the team’s worst base runners so far in 2023. 

Shifts
The Twins have used defensive shifts at a higher rate than any other team, even with MLB limiting shifts this season. MLB’s average sits just under 20% of plate appearances with a shift, and the Twins have shifted on over 45%. No team has shifted more against left-handed hitters than the Twins, who have shifted over 80% of the time versus lefties. Minnesota’s pitchers have been strong to start the season, and shifts might be assisting them in recording more outs. Right-handed batters have a .287 wOBA against the Twins, while left-handed batters have posted a .235 wOBA. 

How do you feel the rules changes have impacted the Twins? Will there be more impacts throughout the season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

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[jkcarew]

I don’t think the rules have effected the Twins in any way that they haven’t impacted every other team….

Shift Rules: negligible impact…basically zero impact; BABiP has not changed materially…players haven’t changed approach by hitting more balls on the ground, etc.

Pitch Clock: seems to be a universal hit, but doesn’t provide a unique advantage/disadvantage to any one team. Soon, the teams who have taken the most violations will adjust.

I think the one change that favors some teams is the pickoff attempt rule (in combination with the clock). Success rates on SB attempts are up, and IMO it’s all about the restrictions on how pitchers can hold runners, and not about the 4 inches. Regardless, the Twins lose ground on some teams here, because the Twins still don’t, and won’t, attempt stolen bases.

[Trov]

12 hours ago, jkcarew said:

I don’t think the rules have effected the Twins in any way that they haven’t impacted every other team….

Shift Rules: negligible impact…basically zero impact; BABiP has not changed materially…players haven’t changed approach by hitting more balls on the ground, etc.

Pitch Clock: seems to be a universal hit, but doesn’t provide a unique advantage/disadvantage to any one team. Soon, the teams who have taken the most violations will adjust.

I think the one change that favors some teams is the pickoff attempt rule (in combination with the clock). Success rates on SB attempts are up, and IMO it’s all about the restrictions on how pitchers can hold runners, and not about the 4 inches. Regardless, the Twins lose ground on some teams here, because the Twins still don’t, and won’t, attempt stolen bases.

I said before the season started, when everyone was thinking the shift rule would increase certain lefties a ton.  I said it will make little to no difference, and so far that has held true.  Sure, there may be a hit or two they get but for most part has made little difference.  

I agree no team will have an advantage from pitch clock.

Steals I think will just come down to if the Twins actually want to try.  They have guys that could, but have not chosen to yet. 

[stringer bell]

I don't think the Twins are particularly well positioned to add a lot of steals, particularly if Buxton isn't running at all. The limits on shifting both add and take away hits without question. Kyle Farmer's game-winner mostly likely would have been a GDP, but a lot of balls up the middle have gone for hits that would have been outs. A number have also squeaked through on the pull side. 

The Twins haven't been hurt much at all by opponents' stealing bases and they have only attempted three steals themselves. 

[jkcarew]

7 hours ago, Trov said:

I said it will make little to no difference, and so far that has held true. 

Yeah...I thought the shift rules were stupid when I first heard of them. Seemed intuitive to me that they wouldn't have any material impact...and certainly not the desired impact. Nothing's happening that would make me question that view.

The thing that bugs me about the narrative on shifts is that they are a REASON for the modern low BA/OBP. No. They. Are. Not. The extreme shifting has been around forever...Ted Williams saw extreme shifting, Killebrew saw it...many players saw it. It wasn't used as much as what we've seen recently because back then maybe 20% of the guys were trying to pull and hit HR's on every pitch. Now it's 95%. The reason for the low BA/OBP is the near total adoption of this approach. Back in the day, maybe 2 or 3 guys in a batting order regularly used that approach...and, even at that, it tended to be somewhat situational...guys tended to have more than one tool in their bag. Now it's all they know how to do...and they've been trained to do, from age 9. And it's compounded by the fact that they're using this approach into the teeth of a trend where the batter will see multiple pitchers every game, each able to max effort every single pitch. Swinging and missing is the reason for the modern low BA/OBP. And limiting shifts, at BEST, will have no impact on that...and, at worse, could add to the problem by validating attempts to pull and launch at every PA.

[Minny505]

Quote

@Cody Christiewrote: 

According to FanGraph’s baserunning metric (BsR), the Twins have been worth -2.3 runs on the bases, which ranks 24th overall.

Buxton's, and to a lesser extent Taylor's, brilliant baserunning can barely buoy the anchor, that is the rest of the roster, from the bottom of the league.

[stringer bell]

12 minutes ago, Minny505 said:

Buxton's, and to a lesser extent Taylor's, brilliant baserunning can barely buoy the anchor, that is the rest of the roster, from the bottom of the league.

I believe they were 29th or 30th last year. Moving up six spots is improvement, yes?

[Minny505]

3 minutes ago, stringer bell said:

I believe they were 29th or 30th last year. Moving up six spots is improvement, yes?

I'll take your word for it on last year. And that makes sense. Buxton and Taylor have played a higher percentage of the teams games this year vs last.