How Likely Are the Twins to Extend Their Veteran Starting Pitchers?

[DocBauer]

A few considerations first:

1] NOT beginning another debate about spending, but the Twins enter 2023 with another record payroll. They certainly aren't cutting. "New owner in charge" Joe Pohlad is a fan and a baseball guy. He's at least hinted at continuing to raise payroll to be competitive. 

2] The Twins, and more than a few teams, are going to be affected by the issues with Bally. SOMEONE, and SOMETHING is going to change after this season. And I wouldn't be surprised if MLB steps in at some point to offer assistance for future TV deals for those affected. But it might be hard...whatever ultimately happens...to NOT see a better TV deal and increase in revenue for the Twins next deal. And I have to wonder some about a recent post from Brock concerning efforts by the owners to make changes and re -shape the financial structure of MLB. Could their 1st move be to actually assist with new deals involving a replacement for Bally?

3] The Twins payroll, with a few exceptions, is going to have a lot of low cost but very good players the next few years. That, and the above comments, might make an extension or two, a QO, or two, as real possibilities.

ON TO THE CANDIDATES!

MAHLE: Potentially, he's the most expensive to re-sign. But also, potentially, the most important. To my recollection, he's never had a major injury or injury history. It appears his tired shoulder issue in 2022 may simply be a hiccup. Despite being good, he's never been great. But he's at the perfect age where experience and stuff...especially if his new slider plays up...where he takes the next step forward in his career for the next 5yrs. While only making $7.5M this year, a strong, healthy year could put him in to the $18-20M per category. That's huge. But it's not insurmountable, especially considering other contracts on the books might be gone. And he might be the smartest option to extend.

GRAY: First of all...and I hope for the last time...Gray has said and done NOTHING to say he dislikes being a Twin. He's a natural and respected leader, but also a competitor. He...not loudly...stated he wanted to go longer in games. Well, despite some injury issues, and the Twins trying to nurse him a bit, he got those opportunities. When one of those opportunities didn't turn out very well, he simply commented he needed to pitch better the next time. How is this guy a malcontent? Despite never being a bastion of health, he's had a nice career. At times, he even pitches like a #1. He has a shot to reach FA for the first time in his career following the 2023 season. In the Twins favor, there are very few 33/34yo SP who warrant major $ or long term deals unless they are a relatively proven front of the rotation type. And as good as he is, as much as I personally like him, I doubt he suddenly becomes a 180IP type at this point. I think he's looking at 2-3yrs, maybe an option in there somewhere, for a bump from his $12.5M to something like $15-18M per. Hell, dumping Pagan's $3.5M takes care of most of that!

MAEDA: For a guy who's career has been, quite successfully, built on limited velocity, 6 different pitches, control, and deception, he's looked pretty strong so far in ST. His IP in 2023 may be closely monitored. Even at 35yo, it's possible his rebuilt elbow has a few more years of quality innings and production ahead. His INSANELY cheap $3.25M with incentives... that can push it a few $M higher...makes him extremely affordable. Unless I'm mistaken, don't his incentives still max out to around $10-12M? Any sort of extension should still be very inexpensive. He might come as "cheap" as a year or two at $10-12M per. And for a veteran 4-5th starter with some gas in the tank, potentially, that could be a bargain for sure.

I can absolutely see room to re-sign at least one of these guys, maybe two. I can see QO made as well...no such thing as a bad 1yr deal right?...and a draft choice if any QO are declined. 

I just don't know that there's room for more than one. But I'd much rather do the whole "bird in your hand" scenario and keep developing what's on hand rather than make another trade. And I'm just not certain who is my priority re-sign. Based on the OP, and deliberately leaving Lopez out of the conversation as such, and since we have another year of control, I'd probably lean towards the youth and potential of Mahle if the numbers make sense. Gray would be a very close second on a shorter deal. But I could see Maeda back as well, potentially, if it's Gray. 

I don't get paid to figure this out. But I would hope that one of Gray or Mahle is back next year. And maybe it's best if it's only ONE re-sign to keep some $ in reserve for Lopez next year.

[Rod Carews Birthday]

2 hours ago, roger said:

Question while reading this.  Can a team do more than one QO?  

I believe the answer is two.  

[twinstalker]

Reds fans:  "We got Steer!  We got Encarnacion-Strand!"

Twins fans:  "We got a rock."

[Fred]

On 3/13/2023 at 11:28 AM, gunnarthor said:

Mahle is the only one I'd consider but it really depends on his health. Shoulder fatigue is scary. The other two will not be back. (Frankly, I think the Twins will be out of it at the deadline and trade guys like Gray/Maeta if they are healthy).

I could see the Twins trying to extend Ryan on an insanely team-friendly deal but I don't think his agent would allow that to happen. 

"I think the Twins will be out of it at the deadline" What!? You know Spring is the season of hope, right?

[Major League Ready]

Way too early to answer this question.  I see them waiting until August to assess the health and performance of Lopez / Ryan / Ober / Paddack at the end of year.  This is especially true if Lopez is the one they like the best or feel most confident in extending.  Then, part two will be how they feel about Varland and SWR to start 24.  Then, do some other guys like Festa / Balazovic / Raya or Canterino start to look like they can be part 2024 and beyond at some point during the season.   This will be much clearer in 6 months.

I think it takes market rate to get them now or later so they are better off waiting until they end of the season or the off-season to determine what they need.  That puts them in apposition to take a run at Nola and Severino too.   It's always a long-shot to get the higher end free agent SPs but why not take a shot and have a fallback position of Mahle/Gray?