Rumors Twins could cut deal with first pick to save money later in the draft!

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

Except it isn't like the NFL at all.....you are "trading back" 30 picks, and the odds of the guy you want being there are very, very, very tiny.

 

In the NFL there is little risk that a player will forego playing pro and go to college. That's the obvious point that you conveniently ignore

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I've enjoyed this discussion. This is from an interview I did with Twins West Coast Scouting Supervisor Sean Johnson a few months ago in regards to cutting deals with guys to save money:

 

First, you have to analyze the draft crop and see what the strengths are. Obviously we thought about all the scenarios, but you don’t want to save money up for a guy who might not be there. We really like Buxton. We saved some money here and there, but we always just tried to take the next best guy.

 

Next year we have one of the biggest pools. We had a huge pool last year. We can explore. If we don’t like any of the guys that want a certain amount of money, we have options. There’s not clear cut group of four or five guys. It’s wide open.

[kab21]

Even with 42nd pick talent instead of 59th pick talent (which doesn't really make sense because if the 10th overall talent thinks he would have gone higher and you end up splitting the difference then the 42/59th level talent thinks he should have gone higher and you'll split that difference too, but this is a minor quible) it still doesn't make any sense. You'd be giving up on a guaranteed middle of the first round talent + guaranteed middle of the second round talent for the guaranteed middle of the second round talent and a chance at a middle of a first round pick.

 

Or in a more visual form:

 

15th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder

59th pick: chance at mid-first rounder if he falls to you

vs.

15th pick: Guaranteed mid-1st Rounder

59th pick: Guaranteed mid-2nd Rounder

 

The reason it makes sense with high draft picks is because you get this scenario:

 

#4 Pick: Guaranteed top 10 pick

#43 Pick: Chance at mid-1st rounder if he falls

vs.

#4 Pick: Guaranteed Top 10 talent

#43 Pick: Guaranteed 2nd round talent

 

I have no idea what you are doing here. Absolutely no clue. Where in the world did #59 come from?

 

#4 and #43 if you don't go underslot

 

vs

 

#10 (but #4b on the Twins board) and #15 talent that dropped due to signability

 

If the Twins have a 4b player that they consider equivalent to the BPA but cheaper then this can work. The tier after Bryant doesn't really have one guy that is leading it. I'm just hoping that they take Stewart but he isn't a slam dunk and the Twins scouts could have big concerns about him that internet scouts don't.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Stewart's also a Type 1 diabetic, so there is that to consider as well. Personally, if he's offered $3.2, $3.3m, I'd be surprised if he said no.

 

Here's a thought:

4. Twins slot $4.5m

5. Indians slot $3.8m

6. Marlins slot $3.5m

7. Red Sox slow $3.246m

 

If the Twins call the reps for Frazier, Stewart and Manaea the day before the draft and say, "We'll take the guy that agrees to sign for $3.3, or we'll take somebody else..." (Maybe McGuire...?) Who says no?

 

I'd bet Manaea says no first. The likelihood is that the Marlins won't pay full slot. The Indians have been linked to college pitching.

[Oxtung]

I have no idea what you are doing here. Absolutely no clue. Where in the world did #59 come from?

 

#4 and #43 if you don't go underslot

 

vs

 

#10 (but #4b on the Twins board) and #15 talent that dropped due to signability

 

If the Twins have a 4b player that they consider equivalent to the BPA but cheaper then this can work. The tier after Bryant doesn't really have one guy that is leading it. I'm just hoping that they take Stewart but he isn't a slam dunk and the Twins scouts could have big concerns about him that internet scouts don't.

 

I agree that the Twins could go underslot this year, no problem.

 

I was responding to Brock's post that the Twins, who theoretically won't be picking this high again in the near future, can't get a top 5 talent in the future but could still go the underslot route. I was attempting to show that really isn't true.

 

Pick 15 was just a "we could have pick 15 next year if we stay around .500," and in order to save $1.5m dollars with the 15th pick, because of the plateauing of slot values, the Twins would have to sign a player that wasn't expected to go until around pick #59, which has a slot value ~$1.5m less than pick 15. In which case the Twins would have essentially given up a guaranteed first round pick to sign a guaranteed second round pick all with the hopes that when their second round pick does come around that the "hard to sign 1st round talent but fell to the second round" still is there.

 

So my whole post was just attempting to refute Brock's claim that the Twins could still go underslot in future years even if they don't have a high draft pick.

[cmb0252]

Stewart's also a Type 1 diabetic, so there is that to consider as well. Personally, if he's offered $3.2, $3.3m, I'd be surprised if he said no.

 

Here's a thought:

4. Twins slot $4.5m

5. Indians slot $3.8m

6. Marlins slot $3.5m

7. Red Sox slow $3.246m

 

If the Twins call the reps for Frazier, Stewart and Manaea the day before the draft and say, "We'll take the guy that agrees to sign for $3.3, or we'll take somebody else..." (Maybe McGuire...?) Who says no?

 

I'd bet Manaea says no first. The likelihood is that the Marlins won't pay full slot. The Indians have been linked to college pitching.

 

This is a great point. While I'm not sure you will get that big of discount, I bet you can get a couple 100k off like last year at least. Either way with how this draft is shaping up, for better or worse, there is no clear cut best player at 4 if Gray/appel/Bryant go off the board. This surprisingly gives the Twins some extra leverage as Jeremy pointed out above.

[Vervehound]

When your team looks to be on the upswing, you don't blow your last chance at a top five pick by drafting down to spend more in the later rounds, something you can do every other year you draft.

 

The Twins front office would have to be certifiably stupid to even consider such a thing.

actually, the only reason to consider doing this is because the twins have such a high pick. their pool is inflated because of that pick amount so if they could get a guy like McGuire to sign for mid-round money, they may have a couple million to throw around. it makes additional sense to consider this in a weak draft where there is no clear cut no. 4 player. I kind've like the idea but that's tempered with the thought that there is no guarantee as to who is going to be on the board in later rounds and that the twins may not actually spend their entire pool.

[Brodin4Calder]

This came from Klaw chat about 30 seconds ago. I hope he is right about Stewart or Manaea. I only posted the same question about Manaea and Stewart 40 times before the program picked this one up:

Question:

Jim Callis said there are rumors the Twins might pop Reese McGuire at #4 and save money for later picks. Have you heard that? As a Twins fan I'm less than excited about that idea.

Klaw (1:36 PM)

 

 

 

I have heard that, but I do not believe they would actually do it. I've heard them heavily on Stewart and think they'd be on Manaea if he were to finish strongly (and healthy). Highest I'm legitimately hearing McGuire is 6 or 9.

 

Thats good news. The Twins need to take a top arm this year, yea they can say theres a risk in Manaeas inconsistency and Stewarts minor injuries but they have sooo much upside. Stewart has the stuff to be as good or better than Appel and Gray but hes a 3-4 year project, and Manaea has ace stuff too and hes closer to being ready but hes been inconsistent. I just hope they take one of them or if Appel, Gray or Bryant is there take one of them.

[30whales]

I haven't really followed the draft closely ever other than last season but I am just wondering why everyone is down on Manaea and his performance this year? He has a 1.58 ERA. I mean I guess I think it might be in a weaker conference but that still looks pretty darn good to me. Again, I am fairly new to this stuff so I have no idea.

[kab21]

I haven't really followed the draft closely ever other than last season but I am just wondering why everyone is down on Manaea and his performance this year? He has a 1.58 ERA. I mean I guess I think it might be in a weaker conference but that still looks pretty darn good to me. Again, I am fairly new to this stuff so I have no idea.

 

Nagging injuries, reports that his velocity has dipped below 90 (from mid 90's) and inconsistent secondary pitches are why people are down on Manaea.

[gunnarthor]

Nagging injuries, reports that his velocity has dipped below 90 (from mid 90's) and inconsistent secondary pitches are why people are down on Manaea.

 

I wonder if there is an-Appel like concern with him, too. In that Boras might want him to be paid like the guy we saw in the Cape which could cause him to fall pretty far and then not sign at all.

[Brock Beauchamp]

actually, the only reason to consider doing this is because the twins have such a high pick. their pool is inflated because of that pick amount so if they could get a guy like McGuire to sign for mid-round money, they may have a couple million to throw around. it makes additional sense to consider this in a weak draft where there is no clear cut no. 4 player. I kind've like the idea but that's tempered with the thought that there is no guarantee as to who is going to be on the board in later rounds and that the twins may not actually spend their entire pool.

 

I wasn't clear with that post... I meant "you can get mid-round talent any other year", not that the Twins should underslot in later years.

 

I view underslot drafting as a good thing in the case of the Astros. They need bodies and lots of 'em. Their Major League roster is awful, their minors were in even worse shape, and they just needed talent... Piles and piles of talent.

 

So drafting underslot and picking up as many talented players as possible makes a lot of sense. You're sacrificing a little top-flight talent, sure... But you're making up for it with pure numbers, something the Astros need badly to compete before 2020.

 

The Twins aren't in that situation. They have Major League talent. They have a loaded farm system. What they need are top-flight players, not a pile of mid-round players who may or may not be above-average Major League players.

 

Plus, the Astros will always get another shot at a top-five pick next season. They're bloody awful and should be in no rush to compete. The Twins? This is their last shot at a top pick for a few years unless something goes disastrously wrong. That's why I think blowing your last opportunity at top-five talent is utter foolishness. The only exception being that the Twins don't like any of the players in the top five (which is unlikely), in which case it makes sense to drop a few slots and pick up the guy you want the most. If the Twins are left in a "meh" situation with the fourth pick, I guess underslotting isn't the worst thing in the world... But given past drafts, I don't know if that's going to happen.

[cmathewson]

actually, the only reason to consider doing this is because the twins have such a high pick. their pool is inflated because of that pick amount so if they could get a guy like McGuire to sign for mid-round money, they may have a couple million to throw around. it makes additional sense to consider this in a weak draft where there is no clear cut no. 4 player. I kind've like the idea but that's tempered with the thought that there is no guarantee as to who is going to be on the board in later rounds and that the twins may not actually spend their entire pool.

 

It all hinges on the quality of the player they make a deal with. I was not fond of the Revere deal because they passed up better talent just to save money.

 

If McGuire is a number 4 talent, (in this draft where there might be, say, 10 of those guys), do it.

[greengoblinrulz]

Its sad to see so many MN Twins fans talking like you. Im not trying to be a dick im just saying the Twins horrible thinking has gotten to the fans. Yes theres alot of busts in every draft but the reward is so great when you take that risk, and theres never a for sure thing. The Twins need a potential ace and have the 4th overall pick with a couple potential aces out there. Do you think the Tigers thought Verlander could be a bust? Yes. Do you think the Dodgers thought Kershaw could be a bust? Yes. But they took the chance and were rewarded. Any player at any level could be a bust. But they could also be the next Verlander.

I cant even remember the last time the Twins took a top arm in the top 5.

Sorry but this was YOUR question & I just answered it, not saying to NOT take a power collegiate pitcher, cause thats what I want them to do.

[cmb0252]

I haven't really followed the draft closely ever other than last season but I am just wondering why everyone is down on Manaea and his performance this year? He has a 1.58 ERA. I mean I guess I think it might be in a weaker conference but that still looks pretty darn good to me. Again, I am fairly new to this stuff so I have no idea.

 

While when scouting prospects you do like seeing good stat lines but what is more important are grades. Scouting grades go from 20-80 with 20 being the worst possible grade, 50 being big league average, and 80 being plus plus level. Let's take Keith laws grades for Manaea:

 

Fastball:55

Fastball movement: 45

Command: 65

Control: 65

Slider: 50

Change up:50

Feel for pitching:65

 

According to Law's grades all of Manaea's pitches have been average this season and the main reason he has dominated is because of his control/command/feel for pitching. While having all of those is a good thing typical front of the rotation pitchers usually have at least 2 pitches in the 60-70 range. Manaea did show 60-70 grade fastball/slider combo in the cape cod league he hasn't show even close to those in college (before or after).

 

A lot of pitchers are aces in college but profile as #4-5 type guys in the bigs (Wimmers, Baxendale, or Windle). College to the majors is a big jump. People need to remember Manaea wasn't on the prospect scene before his Cape Cod appearance. He has two more starts to prove not only does he have the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter but that he is healthy.

[cmathewson]

While when scouting prospects you do like seeing good stat lines but what is more important are grades. Scouting grades go from 20-80 with 20 being the worst possible grade, 50 being big league average, and 80 being plus plus level. Let's take Keith laws grades for Manaea:

 

Fastball:55

Fastball movement: 45

Command: 65

Control: 65

Slider: 50

Change up:50

Feel for pitching:65

 

According to Law's grades all of Manaea's pitches have been average this season and the main reason he has dominated is because of his control/command/feel for pitching. While having all of those is a good thing typical front of the rotation pitchers usually have at least 2 pitches in the 60-70 range. Manaea did show 60-70 grade fastball/slider combo in the cape cod league he hasn't show even close to those in college (before or after).

 

A lot of pitchers are aces in college but profile as #4-5 type guys in the bigs (Wimmers, Baxendale, or Windle). College to the majors is a big jump. People need to remember Manaea wasn't on the prospect scene before his Cape Cod appearance. He has two more starts to prove not only does he have the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter but that he is healthy.

 

How much of the Cape Cod dominance had to do with wooden bats? Just a theory, but wood bats have smaller sweet spots, making them more susceptible to command/control pitching. To dominate metal bat conferences, you need to have stuff.

[cmb0252]

How much of the Cape Cod dominance had to do with wooden bats? Just a theory, but wood bats have smaller sweet spots, making them more susceptible to command/control pitching. To dominate metal bat conferences, you need to have stuff.

 

I don't think the problem is the bats, Manaea has actually put up good numbers this year, but more about his stuff being inconsistent. I don't know if this is due to injuries, fatigue, or the simple fact that the stuff we saw in the Cape was an illusion.

[Vervehound]

While when scouting prospects you do like seeing good stat lines but what is more important are grades. Scouting grades go from 20-80 with 20 being the worst possible grade, 50 being big league average, and 80 being plus plus level. Let's take Keith laws grades for Manaea:

 

Fastball:55

Fastball movement: 45

Command: 65

Control: 65

Slider: 50

Change up:50

Feel for pitching:65

 

According to Law's grades all of Manaea's pitches have been average this season and the main reason he has dominated is because of his control/command/feel for pitching. While having all of those is a good thing typical front of the rotation pitchers usually have at least 2 pitches in the 60-70 range. Manaea did show 60-70 grade fastball/slider combo in the cape cod league he hasn't show even close to those in college (before or after).

 

A lot of pitchers are aces in college but profile as #4-5 type guys in the bigs (Wimmers, Baxendale, or Windle). College to the majors is a big jump. People need to remember Manaea wasn't on the prospect scene before his Cape Cod appearance. He has two more starts to prove not only does he have the stuff to be a front of the rotation starter but that he is healthy.

I can tell that you know your stuff but manaea was absolutely on scouts' radars before last year's cape. he's been inconsistent in the past and has flashed brilliance, but there aren't too many physical lefties that have the raw arm strength he does - he was on a lot of shortlists. that said, that was his only sustained period where he threw a three pitch mix with great effect and the results were awesome. still love the guy but I think he and stewart could be on pretty much the same time frame to the bigs and therefore i'm leaning stewart.