Greglw3’s 2023 Payroll Blueprint

[Greglw3]

• ? Contreras ($16.07M)
• 1B: Jose Abreu ($9.12M)
• 2B: Luis Arraez ($4.50M)
• 3B: Gio Urshela ($11.00M)
• SS: Austin Martin ($.7M)
• LF: Andrew Binentendi ($17.40M)
• CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M)
• RF: Joc Pederson ($14.68M)
• DH: Jose Miranda ($1.25M)
• 4th OF: Billy Hamilton ($0.70M)
• Utility: Nick Gordon ($1.40M)
• Utility: Alex Kirilloff ($0.80M)
• Backup ? Jeffers ($.70M)
• SP1: Sonny Gray ($8.00M)
• SP2: Joe Ryan ($1.25M)
• SP3: Tyler Mahle ($9.00M)
• SP4: Kenta Maeda ($8.0M)
• SP5: Bailey Ober ($0.70M)
• RP: Jhoan Duran ($1.40M)
• RP: Jorge Lopez ($3.00M)
• RP: Griffin Jax ($0.70M)
• RP: Jorge Alcala ($1.00M)
• RP: Caleb Thielbar ($2.00M)
• RP: Michael Fulmer ($4.2M)
• RP: Jovani Moran ($1.00M)
• RP: Matt Wisler ($2.10M)
• RP: Andrew Chafin ($7.00M)

140.11 M total payroll

Kirilloff listed a U until he proves he’s healthy and effective. Wallner could play that role as well. If Mahle is not healthy, then Winder, Varland or Woods Richardson would all be capable of breaking into the rotation. Austin Martin could be knocking on the door as well Edouard Julien. Free agent salaries from Spotrac.

[Mike Sixel]

At least double that for Swanson. At least.

[Greglw3]

Wow! I was going by the fact he made 10M last year. Obviously, I’ve underrated his salary. However, when you say at least double, we’re starting to get into Carlos Correa territory. 

Even though I’m not a fan of most SABR statistics (some worse than others), for the sake of comparison, Swanson had an OPS+ of 115 and Correa 140. Plus Swanson’s defense, would have a hard time topping Correa’s. 

To be honest, I originally had Austin Martin as the SS but had extra money in the budget so I upgraded.

I think Martin is such a superior athlete and has such great speed and base stealing ability that he may come fast. Somewhat influenced by his late season finish at Wichita and his super sizzling AFL start and his high number of stolen bases at a very high % success rate (35/41 SB).

I wouldn’t mind going back to Martin and going after a Rodon or Bassitt type starter.

[Reptevia]

Probably my favorite lineup I’ve seen so far. I think your payroll is off by about $50M though. The thing I like the most is you got rid of the players I want gone. 

[beckmt]

You are way low on some of the free agents.  Need some revision here, and who do you think are going to take the Twins current outfield?

[Greglw3]

1 hour ago, beckmt said:

You are way low on some of the free agents.  Need some revision here, and who do you think are going to take the Twins current outfield?

Cave is gone. Wallner will be around. Gordon stays. Kepler is the issue. He may not be tradeable or if he is, they may have to pay part of his salary. That’s the route I would take.

[beckmt]

1 hour ago, Greglw3 said:

Cave is gone. Wallner will be around. Gordon stays. Kepler is the issue. He may not be tradeable or if he is, they may have to pay part of his salary. That’s the route I would take.

What about Kirloff and Laurach? Just ignore those?

[Richie the Rally Goat]

18 hours ago, Greglw3 said:

Wow! I was going by the fact he made 10M last year. Obviously, I’ve underrated his salary. However, when you say at least double, we’re starting to get into Carlos Correa territory. 

Even though I’m not a fan of most SABR statistics (some worse than others), for the sake of comparison, Swanson had an OPS+ of 115 and Correa 140. Plus Swanson’s defense, would have a hard time topping Correa’s. 

To be honest, I originally had Austin Martin as the SS but had extra money in the budget so I upgraded.

I think Martin is such a superior athlete and has such great speed and base stealing ability that he may come fast. Somewhat influenced by his late season finish at Wichita and his super sizzling AFL start and his high number of stolen bases at a very high % success rate (35/41 SB).

I wouldn’t mind going back to Martin and going after a Rodon or Bassitt type starter.

2022 was Swanson’s final arbitration year. By outs above average Swanson is the best fielding SS by a VAST margin.

20 outs above average puts him in the 100th percentile of all fielders across the MLB. 

with a 115 OPS+.
 

Going into his age 29 season Swanson will get PAID! Backup the Brinks Truck! At least 7 years $200M

[Greglw3]

OAA is my least favorite baseball statistic ever invented, not a joke.

I think OAA is consistently and wildly misleading and is literally changing the beliefs of many whose lyin’ eyes see that Urshela and Correa are both gold glove caliber but change their minds when they see OAA. I regard it as junk science at best. Worst, some national writers who don’t watch Twins games are bamboozled by OAA into thinking Urshela and Correa are defensively mediocre to poor.

Correa, for example won the platinum glove as the best defensive player in the American League, regardless of position in 2021. Despite OAA or UZR or other similar stats, Correa was right in the same ballpark this year with a very low error total for a SS (8) and good range and a throwing arm that is second to none at SS, where he turns countless hits into outs and many feeders choices into double plays. He makes the high leaping catch as well as anyone.

That’s not to say that Swanson is not a great defensive player. In 2021, anyway, Correa won the platinum glove and Swanson didn’t.

I just read an article on a Braves oriented site that Swanson may be gone due to their GM not wanting to pay for big, long term contracts.

 

 

[Greglw3]

On 10/14/2022 at 12:00 AM, Mike Sixel said:

At least double that for Swanson. At least.

 

On 10/14/2022 at 8:22 PM, beckmt said:

You are way low on some of the free agents.  Need some revision here, and who do you think are going to take the Twins current outfield?

Could you guys help me out with your estimated salaries for my free agents? I’ll revise and adjust. I do have a payroll of $150M. I remember last year when these spreadsheet and just about everybody assumed $130M and the actual was $140M.

 

[Greglw3]

On 10/14/2022 at 11:39 PM, beckmt said:

What about Kirloff and Laurach? Just ignore those?

They can win jobs but I want the proven ML hitters to force them into depth roles due to their last 2 years injuries and struggles. Injuries and slumps happen and the cream always rises so nothing would stop them from playing a lot or even becoming regulars.

Counting on them and not bringing in winning type OF talent could leave the Twins with another Cave-Celestino-Kepler kind of OF which is a certain recipe for non-contention.

[beckmt]

Pederson is at best a platoon player.  Martin probably cannot handle shortstop, that is why Lee is projected their long term, though Martin could be a short term action.  Abreu will probably command at least $15 million for a short term contract . You and I agree on Contreras, you could be correct on his salary.  

[solomon1930]

On 10/14/2022 at 11:05 PM, Greglw3 said:

Cave is gone. Wallner will be around. Gordon stays. Kepler is the issue. He may not be tradeable or if he is, they may have to pay part of his salary. That’s the route I would take.

My guess is that Kepler gets a final shot to reclaim RF with Wallner in the wings at AAA.  

[Greglw3]

On 10/14/2022 at 5:08 PM, Reptevia said:

Probably my favorite lineup I’ve seen so far. I think your payroll is off by about $50M though. The thing I like the most is you got rid of the players I want gone. 

Hi Reptevia, please check again. I revised it with projected AAV for the 2023 free agents when available.

[Greglw3]

4 hours ago, beckmt said:

Pederson is at best a platoon player.  Martin probably cannot handle shortstop, that is why Lee is projected their long term, though Martin could be a short term action.  Abreu will probably command at least $15 million for a short term contract . You and I agree on Contreras, you could be correct on his salary.  

I got this from Spotrac.com.

[evvytonas87]

On 10/14/2022 at 8:00 AM, Mike Sixel said:

At least double that for Swanson. At least.

Yeaa