An awesome tweet from Dave St. Peter

[cmathewson]

To me, it seemed that the point of the WAR comparison was to refute the claim that Marcum/McCarthy in place of Correia/Pelfrey would make the rotation only "slightly more serviceable". And it does. Both M/M guys are risks, but the assertion that if healthy they are virtually indistinguishable from mediocrities like KC and MP is clearly unsound.

 

And as for the process used to decide on Correia, it hasn't really been open to debate since Ryan said this:

 

 

 

So Ryan is believing favorable scouting reports instead of 10 years of statistical evidence of mediocrity when evaluating a 32 year old pitcher. And it seems likely that at least a few other decisions are being made the same way, since Ryan said nothing to explain why Correia represented a unique case where stats don't apply.

 

He is not saying stats don't apply. He's saying he relies more on his scouts than on stats. It hasn't always worked out for him. But it has worked out for him more often than not. And I am not going to sit here and say "only look at numbers," simply because that's the only info I have available to me.

 

Take Marcum. The Twins are known not to have offered him a contract, despite his numbers. Why? Because they had scouts who said he was injured late last year and probably not going to come back form this year. So far, it looks like they are right. Yet people continue to argue that he's better than Pelfrey. I highly doubt it.

[Nick Nelson]

Take Marcum. The Twins are known not to have offered him a contract, despite his numbers. Why? Because they had scouts who said he was injured late last year and probably not going to come back form this year. So far, it looks like they are right. Yet people continue to argue that he's better than Pelfrey. I highly doubt it.

 

He's clearly better than Pelfrey, based on his body of work. Will he be better this year? I don't know. You're betting on an injury-prone guy against someone who's trying to make the fastest come back ever from TJ surgery and throw a full season. There's room for plenty of doubt both ways.

 

Love your new avatar, BTW.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

He's clearly better than Pelfrey, based on his body of work. Will he be better this year? I don't know. You're betting on an injury-prone guy against someone who's trying to make the fastest come back ever from TJ surgery and throw a full season. There's room for plenty of doubt both ways.

 

Love your new avatar, BTW.

 

I think we're gonna see a wash between the 2. I don't believe either will produce many meaningful innings.

 

I find it amusing how much people are up in arms over the difference between Correa and Pelfrey Vs Marcum and Saunders.

 

They're all near replacement level players. We won't know who is right until after the season, and we'll never know how much of an effort was actually made into signing these guys.

[Guest USAFChief]

I don't intend to defend their methods or decisions, I'm simply stating that I don't think there is some grand conspiracy to bilk the people of Hennepin County out of money. They just made some arguably bad decisions. If the Twins use scouting instead of stats, they will make questionable decisions in the eyes of those who prefer stats. That doesn't mean they are lying about their intentions to upgrade the pitching staff and it doesn't mean that the Pohlads are a group of Music Men trying to steal our money.

It's your contention JR truly believes Kevin Corriea was (is) a better bet than other available free agent pitchers? That chopping payroll had nothing to do with the decisions, rather they made conscious choices to pursue the pitchers they did, regardless of cost, because those pitchers were the best available?

[Oxtung]

I find it amusing how much people are up in arms over the difference between Correa and Pelfrey Vs Marcum and Saunders.

 

They're all near replacement level players.

 

I just don't get how people can still think this. There is plenty of evidence that shows this just isn't true. Statistically Marcum is WELL above average. Of qualified pitchers the last 3 years Marcum was 31st in ERA and 43 in WAR out of 132 pitchers. That includes a year in the AL East where NYY, Bos and TB were 1-3 in MLB in runs scored. People need to stop lumping him in with "replacement level pitchers".

[Oxtung]

It is entirely possible that the Twins did all their homework, looked at a variety of factors and arrived at the conclusion that they should sign Correia and Pelfrey and pass on McCarthy and Marcum.

 

I have no problems with the Twins not following the WAR philosophy. But there doesn't seem to be ANY way in which Correia or Pelfrey are better than McCarthy or Marcum (or a whole slew of other pitchers that were available.) That is the problem here.

 

I guess there probably isn't much point to taking this farther. This has been hashed several times this offseason.

[Brad Swanson]

It's your contention JR truly believes Kevin Corriea was (is) a better bet than other available free agent pitchers? That chopping payroll had nothing to do with the decisions, rather they made conscious choices to pursue the pitchers they did, regardless of cost, because those pitchers were the best available?

 

If my choices are that Terry Ryan is leading a conspiracy to steal money from taxpayers by cutting payroll or that he made a poor choice and signed a bad pitcher, then yes, I believe that Correia was a conscious choice, made in an effort to improve the rotation.

 

However, I don't feel that they necessarily felt Correia and Pelfrey were the best available options, but perhaps the best available options for the Twins and their free agency philosophy.

 

Again, I am not saying I agree with any of their decisions. It is entirely possible that the Twins were too tentative with their offers. Perhaps they overestimated the costs of these players or got bad information from agents. In the end, I do believe they signed these pitchers with the intention of improving the team.

[cmathewson]

I just don't get how people can still think this. There is plenty of evidence that shows this just isn't true. Statistically Marcum is WELL above average. Of qualified pitchers the last 3 years Marcum was 31st in ERA and 43 in WAR out of 132 pitchers. That includes a year in the AL East where NYY, Bos and TB were 1-3 in MLB in runs scored. People need to stop lumping him in with "replacement level pitchers".

 

The issue with Marcum was health. He only pitched 126 innings last year. Lots of scouts were unsure if he was going to come back from it. That's why he was one of the last free agents to sign. The Twins weren't the only team to be concerned about it.

 

You might think it odd that the Twins signed Pelfrey in light of this. But they had seen him throw off a mound several times before making the decision, while Marcum was unable to.

[mcrow]

All I know is when they say they'll spend 50% of revenue and then they come in at ~$80m for payroll, passing over every good FA on the market I find it hard to believe there is not a spending cut in effect.

 

I know that Ryan's strategy has always been to build through the draft and aquiring prospects but I think the Twins with a new stadium should be able to be more liberal with the wallet.

[Mike Sixel]

Bill Smith spends big, then he is replaced by Ryan due to philosophic differences and then payroll drops....coincidence?

[mcrow]

Bill Smith spends big, then he is replaced by Ryan due to philosophic differences and then payroll drops....coincidence?

That thing is that the Twins are becoming the Marlins. Build a new stadium, cut payroll, pocket cash. Not to the same extreme but it is very, very frustrating.

[Brad Swanson]

Bill Smith spends big, then he is replaced by Ryan due to philosophic differences and then payroll drops....coincidence?

 

Yes, it probably is. In the opinion of those that think this is a grand conspiracy, is Terry Ryan a conspirator or a puppet?

 

Terry Ryan is also the architect of the successful Twins' teams of the 2000s, which is something I don't think he is receiving enough credit for.

[mcrow]

For the record, I think that it's a matter of rebuilding at this point but if we continue to see low payrolls as our young prospects are coming into their primes.........I might lose it.

[Mike Sixel]

Yes, it probably is. In the opinion of those that think this is a grand conspiracy, is Terry Ryan a conspirator or a puppet?

 

Terry Ryan is also the architect of the successful Twins' teams of the 2000s, which is something I don't think he is receiving enough credit for.

 

So what was the philosophical difference, in your opinion? Ryan messed up both the Hunter and Santana situations, then bailed instead of handling the problems he created. He also bailed before having to sign Mauer, then came back after those hard decisions were completed. That rubs me the wrong way, big time.

[Shane Wahl]

I'm in the extreme minority, I guess. I think the Twins have hit rock bottom on payroll. I think they'll sign or acquire a front-line pitcher and keep Morneau for 2014 and beyond. I think they'll go back up to around $110 in payroll next year.

 

Dan Haren signed a mere one-year deal just to make big with the Twins next year . . .

 

Obviously Morneau is the big factor with regard to whether payroll is up or down. He will cost 5ish million at the deadline and Willingham will cost 10ish over 1.3 years. I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox won't throw money at one *or both* of them if they each have good seasons this year.

 

That said, keeping Willingham as the DH for 2014 sounds good too.

[Brad Swanson]

So what was the philosophical difference, in your opinion? Ryan messed up both the Hunter and Santana situations, then bailed instead of handling the problems he created. He also bailed before having to sign Mauer, then came back after those hard decisions were completed. That rubs me the wrong way, big time.

 

Honestly, I have no idea what the philosophical differences were. Maybe ownership disagreed with Bill Smith on how to rebuild the team. Maybe they felt the team had cratered as a result of the moves that he made. Maybe they regretted giving him the job in the first place. It's also possible that Ryan decided he wanted his job back and they wanted to give it to him. I really don't know. But, I think each of those examples is equally likely to the idea that Smith was fired and Ryan was put in charge with the strict orders to cut payroll.

 

I'll admit that money probably played a part, as I am sure ownership was at least somewhat (justifiably) unhappy about spending 113 million dollars on a 96-loss-team.

 

While I can understand that you are rubbed the wrong way, in regards to those moves you cited, Ryan also came back to a terrible team, with a terrible farm system and an inflated payroll (considering the state of the organization). If he were truly gutless, he wouldn't have accepted the job. In addition, it was Ryan and his regime that selected Santana in the rule 5 draft and chose Joe Mauer over Mark Prior. If those two transactions hadn't happened, those decisions and issues wouldn't have been around for Ryan to hide from.

[nicksaviking]

Yes, it probably is. In the opinion of those that think this is a grand conspiracy, is Terry Ryan a conspirator or a puppet?

 

He's neither, he's just an indecisive GM. He doesn't make bold offers so he ends up sitting back and waiting for something to fall in his lap. The problem is that by the time something falls in his lap, the agressive GM's have already grabbed the better prizes.

 

This year was worse though. This offseason he took to the airwaves and complained to everyone that no one will come here and take his offers. CMATHEWSON earlier said he took the high road this offseason. That woe-is-me airing of frustration that no one was taking his (likely low) offers was certainly not the high road.

[Mike Sixel]

By the way, it only partly rubs me the wrong way. It isn't some kind of deal breaker. I like Ryan, and I think he has talent as a GM, I just think he's 100% wrong in his approach to FA and spending money.

[nicksaviking]

Dan Haren signed a mere one-year deal just to make big with the Twins next year

 

And the Twins could have had him. If they had traded for him it would have cost a token non-prospect and the Twins surely could have afforded the contract. The one year deal would not have hindered the rebuild and it would have made the Twins at least 20% more competitive.

[Mike Sixel]

Also, I really hope I'm wrong. I really hope he does sign a legit FA some day, or trade prospect(s) for great players that make money. but we have over a decade of experience to show us that is unlikely to be the case.

 

I also agree with Nick. Ryan took to the airwaves and said he'd sign legit pitchers, he also complained when he could not sign them. Well, it is his job as GM to make the team better, regardless of how hard that is. Just like it is Butera's job to hit Verlander and other pitchers. We've learned Butera is not good at his job, let's hope we do NOT learn the GM has been passed by in the last 15 years.

 

As for the minors being a mess, who was the GM when all the young players in the majors the last few years and AAA players that are not there were acquired? Ryan was.

[Mike Sixel]

Oh, and in honor of opening day in a couple of days, I'm probably done with this thread. I dont' want to be all pissy and negative for the next week or two.....

[cmathewson]

Dan Haren signed a mere one-year deal just to make big with the Twins next year . . .

 

Obviously Morneau is the big factor with regard to whether payroll is up or down. He will cost 5ish million at the deadline and Willingham will cost 10ish over 1.3 years. I have a hard time believing that the Red Sox won't throw money at one *or both* of them if they each have good seasons this year.

 

That said, keeping Willingham as the DH for 2014 sounds good too.

 

Yes. With Arcia almost ready, it makes more sense to trade Morneau at the break than Willingham. He's pretty well cost controlled and he fits Target Field like a glove (as a DH). The only way they hang onto Morneau, IMHO, is if they surprise everyone and are in contention. With the draft compensation change, it makes almost no sense to retain him unless they are in contention.

[Brad Swanson]

He's neither, he's just an indecisive GM. He doesn't make bold offers so he ends up sitting back and waiting for something to fall in his lap. The problem is that by the time something falls in his lap, the agressive GM's have already grabbed the better prizes.

 

This year was worse though. This offseason he took to the airwaves and complained to everyone that no one will come here and take his offers. CMATHEWSON earlier said he took the high road this offseason. That woe-is-me airing of frustration that no one was taking his (likely low) offers was certainly not the high road.

 

That might be true. I'm not informed enough to determine if he is a good GM or a bad GM. My whole point all along is that we can (and maybe should) be critical about the bad moves the team has made, but there isn't some grand conspiracy to steal money from fans. The payroll decision, the lack of quality free agent signings, the Santana trade, and down the line, were potentially bad baseball decisions and perhaps bad business decisions. None of that means they are deliberately harming their product to save money, which was an argument that was being made earlier in the thread and I continue to harp on even though we've mostly moved on. Sorry about that.

 

Mike, I respect your passion and I understand your frustrations. I really don't mean to argue with you on this topic. I appreciate the back and forth and hope you feel the same way.

[Siehbiscuit]

The only way to get FRONT of the rotation material, is to draft it and pray against injury, overpay in FA or to trade established players for minor league prospects (Revere and Span trades).

 

The FO's willingness to spend $$$ on FA pitching is clear. Find serviceable, journeymen-types to fill-out the MLB rotation, but trade or Rule 5 for top of the rotation starters when they are still prospects. Santana (Rule 5), Liriano & Boof (via trade), Milton (via trade), Diamond (Rule 5), and more recently with Meyer and May. Drafting pitchers they look for the best available. And recently the injury bug has gotten them.

 

The Twins have tried to get some of the best college arms in the draft recently in Gibson (considered a top 10 pick prior to forearm injury and then TJ surgery) and Wimmers (Steve Blass disease followed by TJ surgery). IF both of these solid #2-3 guys had not gotten hurt and lost seasons, they both would likely be up in the rotation THIS year. They were both solid draft picks.

 

Sometimes, bad luck happens and it COMPLETELY forces your hand. The Correia signing is bad when you look at as just a $$ vs production. But Correia, like Pavano, will likely take the ball every 5th day. He didn't log a lot of innings in the past, mostly due to be demoted, not injury. The Twins ARE desperate and made a desperate move. They need him to take the ball frequently and hope to the offense shows up.

 

If Wimmers and Gibson had stayed healthy, Correia and Pelfrey would likely have never have been signed. We would be looking at a rotation that included 3 young 24-26 year olds, that are all making the MLB minimum. Sometimes teams, just get a string of bad luck.

 

That being said, the only way to get front of the rotation material, is to draft it and pray against injury, overpay in FA (not going to happen) or to trade established players for minor league prospects (Revere and Span trades).

[Mike Sixel]

Brad, I think the conversation has been great, no issues with me at all. We reach different conclusions from what little information we have available to us. No biggie to me, I like the discussion.

 

Siehbiscuit makes a good point, and my frustration over passing on Appel is also high. He would be in their rotation this year, as a number 1/2 type guy. This year. Buxton is what, 3-5 years away, if he makes it? The also passed on Gausmann, who would be their best starter later this year, when he's ready. They appear to not want to sign a big time FA. Rule 5 draft has changed, and they are unlikely to find a legit pitcher that way now (unlike the past). That leaves luck and trades. They also do not trade prospects for proven pitchers, meaning it is luck, and luck in trades. I don't like relying on luck as a strategy, frankly.

[Mr. Brooks]

Brad, I think the conversation has been great, no issues with me at all. We reach different conclusions from what little information we have available to us. No biggie to me, I like the discussion.

 

Siehbiscuit makes a good point, and my frustration over passing on Appel is also high. He would be in their rotation this year, as a number 1/2 type guy. This year. Buxton is what, 3-5 years away, if he makes it? The also passed on Gausmann, who would be their best starter later this year, when he's ready. They appear to not want to sign a big time FA. Rule 5 draft has changed, and they are unlikely to find a legit pitcher that way now (unlike the past). That leaves luck and trades. They also do not trade prospects for proven pitchers, meaning it is luck, and luck in trades. I don't like relying on luck as a strategy, frankly.

 

If Buxton hits his ceiling we are all going to be thankful that they chose him over Appel and Gausman.

And we still have a chance to draft Appel this year.

[ThePuck]

If Buxton hits his ceiling we are all going to be thankful that they chose him over Appel and Gausman.

And we still have a chance to draft Appel this year.

 

Let's not forget Zimmer...

[Guest USAFChief]

If my choices are that Terry Ryan is leading a conspiracy to steal money from taxpayers by cutting payroll or that he made a poor choice and signed a bad pitcher, then yes, I believe that Correia was a conscious choice, made in an effort to improve the rotation.

 

However, I don't feel that they necessarily felt Correia and Pelfrey were the best available options, but perhaps the best available options for the Twins and their free agency philosophy.

 

Again, I am not saying I agree with any of their decisions. It is entirely possible that the Twins were too tentative with their offers. Perhaps they overestimated the costs of these players or got bad information from agents. In the end, I do believe they signed these pitchers with the intention of improving the team.

Fair enough. Me? I don't see how anyone can look at the available evidence and not conclude that chopping payroll was goal #1. Improving the team was a distant second, IMO. I refuse to believe anyone on the Twins--anyone--thinks Correia improves the team more than other available options. I sure hope not, anyway. If they do, we've got bigger problems.

[Siehbiscuit]

The most important thing for me is as an organization, you can't draft or sign FA based on the fear that they may get hurt. If the organization sees something in their delivery that puts a ton of stress on the shoulder or elbow, or they have chronic weight problems or even character problems, that is all fine with me. But avoiding elite talent because he MIGHT breakdown is operating out of fear. Pitchers are more likely to breakdown. Mark Prior was a STUD, he broke down unfortunately. We could list a hundred pitchers that had tremendous talent that broke down, but to be an elite, championship level team, you need a guy that's capable of being an ace. The Twins have a need for a top of the rotation pitcher now and in the future (minors are still not that deep). This same principle could be applied to shortstops. They are hard to find. Instead of breaking down though, they get moved because they lack the range, arm, instincts or bat to do it at the MLB level. Good shortstops are hard to find, let alone a great one. Draft for best player available and develop them NEEDS to be their philosophy and not be ashamed of it. If its who we are going to be, quit pretending. If we need to say the word, "rebuild," it's okay. Most of us likely understand and agree.

[cmathewson]

Now we're playing the game of who we passed on in recent drafts? Really?

 

I like questioning the GM and all, but I hope we can take their decisions in context. There are 29 other GMs out there with as much or more resources to find, draft and sign talent. They're all out there 360 days a year doing their jobs. Just like in the game, sometimes you win, sometimes you lose, sometimes it rains. When you lose, you tip your cap to the guy who wins and you live to play another day.

 

GMs can't bat 1.000 any more than players can. So you look at who's using their available resources the best. The last couple of years notwithstanding, Ryan has done a pretty fair job of using his available resources. And you can hardly blame him for the last couple of years, which have more to do with his predecessor's bad decisions than his own. There are four players left from the 2011 team that Bill Smith built. That says something.

 

It also is interesting to note that the Smith years were marked with being over budget consistently. This team is markedly better than the 2011 team, which cost $35 million more. More proof that merely spending money is not a recipe for success in this game.