An awesome tweet from Dave St. Peter

[Badsmerf]

True, but aside from Mauer, most of our MLB talent will be gone by the time the 'specs are up and truly contributing.

 

Only if the Twins don't acquire any talent or a top college pitcher shoots through the system this summer. I maintain, that if the Twins could have at least been competitive by adding a good SP this offseason. Depending on how the season goes, they could be in the playoff hunt as early as next year. It wouldn't even take that many good breaks.

[fairweather]

The problem with this off-season is that it started good and then reverted right back to the same old crap also known as the Twins way. The acquisitions of May and Meyer gave the fans hope that the twins had seen the light as far as getting SP with stuff and upside. Then Correia and Pelfrey happened. People are upset because they don't want to watch another season of last place baseball.

[spideyo]

No matter how much money you spend, you can't sign guys that don't want to play here. Some players aren't going to want to come to a team coming off two losing seasons, or play for a manager who might be gone in a year. Some agents (coughborascough) might steer guys away from the twins if they think they can get richer contracts elsewhere. Some guys might just not want to live in Minnesota half the year. We have access to such a tiny amount of facts regarding what goes on in an offseason. That doesn't mean I wholeheartedly agree with every move or non-move, but it's a whole lot more complicated than just being cheap.

[Riverbrian]

Perfectly stated Brock. The problem isn't that a team can never cut payroll. The problem is that the Twins did so despite glaring holes and other, better options.

 

I loved the tweet because the Twins have been consistent on this message: Ryan had the money, he just didn't spend it. It isn't what Ryan DID that's so egregious (other than Correia). It's what Ryan DIDN'T do that's so egregious.

 

I've admitted that I'm disapointed that the Twins didn't sign one of the upper tier starters this off season... But on the issue of Middle Infield... Yeah it's a hole but seriously who was available as a free agent to fill that hole. When I say... Fill that hole... Someone who is significantly better.

 

It is very debateable if Stephen Drew is an upgrade at SS at 9 Million and coming off a .223 year... The guy is already on the DL with Boston. Gonzalez, Cedeno, Izturis and Bartlett are nothing special.

 

At 2B... Scutaro and Keppinger had decent years last year but it's not like these guys have been consistent superstars during their careers. Kelly Johnson... I'd pass.

 

I understand the want and need for upgrade in the middle infield. I just have a hard time seeing the FA upgrades that were available for MI.

 

I suppose we could have traded for someone... But, those chips were spent on Young Pitching and in my opinion... Better spent that way.

 

As for SP... I can't defend it... Would have loved for the Twins to have landed a Peavy or something.

[cmathewson]

I'm in the extreme minority, I guess. I think the Twins have hit rock bottom on payroll. I think they'll sign or acquire a front-line pitcher and keep Morneau for 2014 and beyond. I think they'll go back up to around $110 in payroll next year.

[Mr. Brooks]

I'm in the extreme minority, I guess. I think the Twins have hit rock bottom on payroll. I think they'll sign or acquire a front-line pitcher and keep Morneau for 2014 and beyond. I think they'll go back up to around $110 in payroll next year.

 

I don't think we'll ever sign a front line starter unless you are predicting that TR will be fired.

I'm not even trying to rip him, he himself has admitted that he is philosophically opposed to giving the type of years required to get one of those big time front of the rotation starters.

[Mike Sixel]

I'm in the extreme minority, I guess. I think the Twins have hit rock bottom on payroll. I think they'll sign or acquire a front-line pitcher and keep Morneau for 2014 and beyond. I think they'll go back up to around $110 in payroll next year.

 

why would you think TR will ever do that?

[cmathewson]

Perfectly stated Brock. The problem isn't that a team can never cut payroll. The problem is that the Twins did so despite glaring holes and other, better options.

 

I loved the tweet because the Twins have been consistent on this message: Ryan had the money, he just didn't spend it. It isn't what Ryan DID that's so egregious (other than Correia). It's what Ryan DIDN'T do that's so egregious.

 

This is what I don't understand. He had perhaps $20 million that he didn't spend. Who should he have spent it on? The free agent market is not like going to an auto dealership and picking out just the right car. There were very few options with which to spend his money. And it's an auction in which you can get outbid pretty easily.

 

He chose not to spend it on Grienke or Sanchez, which hardly anyone was complaining about at the time considering their price tags. After that, it got really thin. He supposedly made a half a dozen offers and lost out on most of them because guys don't like to pitch for last-place teams.

 

So I'm asking you, whom do you think he should have spent our money on?

[Mr. Brooks]

This is what I don't understand. He had perhaps $20 million that he didn't spend. Who should he have spent it on? The free agent market is not like going to an auto dealership and picking out just the right car. There were very few options with which to spend his money. And it's an auction in which you can get outbid pretty easily.

 

He chose not to spend it on Grienke or Sanchez, which hardly anyone was complaining about at the time considering their price tags. After that, it got really thin. He supposedly made a half a dozen offers and lost out on most of them because guys don't like to pitch for last-place teams.

 

So I'm asking you, whom do you think he should have spent our money on?

 

Do you have a link that his offers were competitive with other teams, and that they turned them down, for the reasons you state?

[cmathewson]

why would you think TR will ever do that?

 

Two reasons:

 

1. Because, by my reckoning, they have a pretty good chance to win next year. This year is iffy. Maybe they'll surprise some people, but you don't bet your whole payroll gap on it. Next year, they'll have Gibson and Meyer and maturing talent elsewhere. They'll have fewer holes to fill, which can be filled with the resources he'll have.

 

2. There will be much more talent available in free agency next year as there was this year. So he might actually not get outbid for that front-line starter. Also, he'll have more talent to trade, if he should decide to go that route.

 

In short, it will be easier for him to build a winning team next year. This could be his last shot before he packs it in. I think he'll go for it.

[Mike Sixel]

I hope you are right.

[cmathewson]

Do you have a link that his offers were competitive with other teams, and that they turned them down, for the reasons you state?

 

There is no one link. My claim is based on a collection of rumors from MLBTradeRumors, Rosenthal and others. The Twins take the high road and never divulge when they offer a guy a contract that he ultimately turns down. Sometimes the player divulges it. Liriano, for example, said the Twins offered him a competitive deal and he chose the Pirates instead because he wanted to go the NL. The McCarthy thing came from Rosenthal. I doubt I have anything that can satisfy the skeptics on this site.

 

Here's the thing, though. Why does everybody assume that his only offers were to Correia and Pelfrey?

 

I am as disappointed as anybody here in the signings. But I seem to be the only one who acknowledges that A. There weren't many good guys on the market and B. The other 29 teams were bidding on them.

[Thrylos]

 

But when the team is coming off 90+ loss seasons, it's really hard to swallow a payroll drop when there are so many glaring holes on this roster. The middle infield was ignored. The rotation was patch-worked together (being quite generous).

.

 

Alright. Experiment:

 

- Here is $30 M. (and take an extra $10 for Correia, Pelfrey, Wood and Butera.) That's $40 M. How would you spend it to make these Twins win 90 games and have a shot at the post-season.

[Mr. Brooks]

There is no one link. My claim is based on a collection of rumors from MLBTradeRumors, Rosenthal and others. The Twins take the high road and never divulge when they offer a guy a contract that he ultimately turns down. Sometimes the player divulges it. Liriano, for example, said the Twins offered him a competitive deal and he chose the Pirates instead because he wanted to go the NL. The McCarthy thing came from Rosenthal. I doubt I have anything that can satisfy the skeptics on this site.

 

Here's the thing, though. Why does everybody assume that his only offers were to Correia and Pelfrey?

 

I am as disappointed as anybody here in the signings. But I seem to be the only one who acknowledges that A. There weren't many good guys on the market and B. The other 29 teams were bidding on them.

 

No, I'm not saying those were the only offers.

I'm saying I don't believe that they made the BEST offer to guys, but were turned down because guys don't want to come here. To be blunt, I think TR lowballs FA's.

 

And I thought that Liriano said the Twins offer wasn't as good as the Pirates offer? I could be remembering that wrong though.

[Mr. Brooks]

Alright. Experiment:

 

- Here is $30 M. (and take an extra $10 for Correia, Pelfrey, Wood and Butera.) That's $40 M. How would you spend it to make these Twins win 90 games and have a shot at the post-season.

 

That is playing by a different set of rules though.

 

See, I don't view this roster as a competitive one. So there is no combonation of players I can sign with that money that gets us to 90 wins.

 

HOWEVER, TR keeps saying we are not rebuilding and that this will be a competitive club. If that is the case, you should only need to add 5 to 7 or so wins to get there. If you can't find 5 to 7 wins with $40 million, you have no business being an MLB GM.

And, it's not my job to say who he should sign. He's the one being paid to be a GM, not me.

If the market dictates that you have to overpay to get a guy, then do it. It's not like you don't have plenty of extra money to do so.

[Thrylos]

HOWEVER, TR keeps saying we are not rebuilding and that this will be a competitive club.

 

The one thing I learned is not to trust a word that Ryan or Gardenhire or anyone says out there for PR and public consumption, because I would be totally disappointed if I took their word for real. It is not. PR. They think that "rebuilding" will take rear ends off TF seats that even gourmet mac and cheese cannot make them return.

 

Back to the original statement about the Twins' president's tweet and it's "greatness" :

 

I find it extremely tacky and customer unfriendly. Even if a customer has unreasonable expectations and makes unreasonable statements publicly (and, of course, I think that those statements by FJ are unreasonable) the President of the Twins' should not publicly degrade and dismiss a paying customer. Customer service is a tricky thing and IMHO the first thing that it should be done would have been not to reply publicly in such a condescending mode. I think that if there were to be a reply it should have been private and start with something like "The Twins value you as a customer and season ticket holder and we are sorry about your concern, but I would like to ensure you that this is not the case."

 

It is like going to McDonalds, getting a rotten burger, getting mad and tweeting that McDonalds is putting rat poison in their burgers and having the McDonalds CEO reply with a "Really?" It ain't going to happen. You'd probably get contacted privately, get a full apology and a bunch of coupons for free stuff.

 

Chew on that a bit... (pun intended)

[Mr. Brooks]

The one thing I learned is not to trust a word that Ryan or Gardenhire or anyone says out there for PR and public consumption, because I would be totally disappointed if I took their word for real. It is not. PR. They think that "rebuilding" will take rear ends off TF seats that even gourmet mac and cheese cannot make them return.

 

Back to the original statement about the Twins' president's tweet and it's "greatness" :

 

I find it extremely tacky and customer unfriendly. Even if a customer has unreasonable expectations and makes unreasonable statements publicly (and, of course, I think that those statements by FJ are unreasonable) the President of the Twins' should not publicly degrade and dismiss a paying customer. Customer service is a tricky thing and IMHO the first thing that it should be done would have been not to reply publicly in such a condescending mode. I think that if there were to be a reply it should have been private and start with something like "The Twins value you as a customer and season ticket holder and we are sorry about your concern, but I would like to ensure you that this is not the case."

 

It is like going to McDonalds, getting a rotten burger, getting mad and tweeting that McDonalds is putting rat poison in their burger and having the McDonalds CEO reply with a "Really?" It ain't going to happen. You'd probably get contacted privately, get a full apology and a bunch of coupons for free stuff.

 

Chew on that a bit...

 

And I think its going to backfire. How are the casual fans going to respond when TR keeps telling them that this team is going to be competitive, only to find themselves watching another 90 loss team?

 

To use a food analogy like you, think of it this way:

Would you be upset if you went to McDonalds and got a crummy dollar burger? No, it would be dumb to be upset, because that is exactly what you were sold, and was what you expected when you went in.

Would you be upset if you went to a nice restaurant, and paid $15 for crummy dollar burger? Damn right you would be. You were sold on a juicy, tasty, perfectly cooked burger, and instead got a thin, dry, overcooked, oversalted meat patty.

 

The Twins should be embracing the rebuild.

Twins fans proved in the early 2000's that they will embrace a young, rebuilding team, as long as there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

This strategy TR and St. Pete are taking is going to backfire in a huge way.

[Thrylos]

This strategy TR and St. Pete are taking is going to backfire in a huge way.

 

I do not disagree with this statement. But if the backfiring gets rid of the arrogance and cronyism that has been plaguing the Twins since the mid 90s, it is not a good thing, it is a great thing.

[bird]

I find it very hard to believe that the organization would spend money on players that they didn't think would help the team win. You can argue that their choices may have been misguided or perhaps even incorrect, but they did acquire five significant starting pitchers this off-season.

 

This is so logical and fair. I was dissappointed that they didn't sign, say, Marcum and McCarthy, instead of Pelfry and Correia. But even if they had, the rotation would be only slightly more serviceable and we still wouldn't contend. This commonly argued point that, if they just spent $20M more, things would be better ignores all the ramifications involved, most notably longer term contracts that serve as anchors down the line. Also, people complain about the lower payroll, but I rarely read a blueprint about how spending that on starters would have put them in a position to contend in 2013 (Greinke doesn't qualify).

[jokin]

This is so logical and fair. I was dissappointed that they didn't sign, say, Marcum and McCarthy, instead of Pelfry and Correia. But even if they had, the rotation would be only slightly more serviceable and we still wouldn't contend. This commonly argued point that, if they just spent $20M more, things would be better ignores all the ramifications involved, most notably longer term contracts that serve as anchors down the line. Also, people complain about the lower payroll, but I rarely read a blueprint about how spending that on starters would have put them in a position to contend in 2013 (Greinke doesn't qualify).

 

Huh?

Marcum Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 2.63 Dollars committed: $4M/1yr

McCarthy Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 3.15 Dollars committed: $15.5M/2yrs

 

Combined projected WAR/yr 5.78 Total cost layout: $19.5M

 

 

Correia Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 0.1 Dollars committed: $10M/2yrs

Pelfrey Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 1.23 Dollars committed: $4M/1yr

 

 

Combined projected WAR/yr last 3 years: 1.24 Dollars committed: $14M

 

This is $5.5M more, picking up 4.5 wins, and actually, it's amortized over 2 years, it means only $2.75M more per year in payroll cost, leaving $17.25M dollars of the mythical $20M to upgrade a further 5-10 wins that would put the Twins in serious contention.

[jokin]

This commonly argued point that, if they just spent $20M more, things would be better ignores all the ramifications involved, most notably longer term contracts that serve as anchors down the line. Also, people complain about the lower payroll, but I rarely read a blueprint about how spending that on starters would have put them in a position to contend in 2013 (Greinke doesn't qualify).

 

There were 53 FA Starting Pitchers in the offseason that signed contracts. Of them

 

40 signed one-year deals

8 signed two-year deals

2 signed three-year deals

 

That's 50 of 53

 

Only 3 of 53 Starting Pitcher Free Agents signed "anchors down the line".

[bird]

Huh?

Marcum Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 2.63 Dollars committed: $4M/1yr

McCarthy Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 3.15 Dollars committed: $15.5M/2yrs

 

Combined projected WAR/yr 5.78 Total cost layout: $19.5M

 

 

Correia Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 0.1 Dollars committed: $10M/2yrs

Pelfrey Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 1.23 Dollars committed: $4M/1yr

 

 

Combined projected WAR/yr last 3 years: 1.24 Dollars committed: $14M

 

This is $5.5M more, picking up 4.5 wins, and actually, it's amortized over 2 years, it means only $2.75M more per year in payroll cost, leaving $17.25M dollars of the mythical $20M to upgrade a further 5-10 wins that would put the Twins in serious contention.

Thank you jokin. You helped make my point.

[jokin]

Thank you jokin. You helped make my point.

 

World? Color? Sky?

[LaBombo]

World? Color? Sky?

 

No, dude, he totally wins, because he actually said "Checkmate!" as he typed his ftw claim...

[Brad Swanson]

Huh?

Marcum Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 2.63 Dollars committed: $4M/1yr

McCarthy Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 3.15 Dollars committed: $15.5M/2yrs

 

Combined projected WAR/yr 5.78 Total cost layout: $19.5M

 

 

Correia Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 0.1 Dollars committed: $10M/2yrs

Pelfrey Average WAR/yr last 3 years: 1.23 Dollars committed: $4M/1yr

 

 

Combined projected WAR/yr last 3 years: 1.24 Dollars committed: $14M

 

This is $5.5M more, picking up 4.5 wins, and actually, it's amortized over 2 years, it means only $2.75M more per year in payroll cost, leaving $17.25M dollars of the mythical $20M to upgrade a further 5-10 wins that would put the Twins in serious contention.

 

I like WAR as much as anyone, but if the Twins don't use WAR to make their decisions, then these calculations don't really mean a whole lot. If they use a different set of data to arrive at the decisions they make, then we could fault them for using bad data, but they still make the decision that they feel is best and sign the players that their information tells them to sign.

 

It is entirely possible that the Twins did all their homework, looked at a variety of factors and arrived at the conclusion that they should sign Correia and Pelfrey and pass on McCarthy and Marcum.

[kab21]

Alright. Experiment:

 

- Here is $30 M. (and take an extra $10 for Correia, Pelfrey, Wood and Butera.) That's $40 M. How would you spend it to make these Twins win 90 games and have a shot at the post-season.

 

Nobody should have had any illusions of magically turning the Twins around in one offseason. The reason that you at least try to add better players in FA is that you could hit on a Josh Willingham and potentially flip that player 2 years later adding more talent to the farm system. The other reason that you bring a decent FA or two is that it's much better to watch a halfway competitive team instead of an absolutely awful team. And that keeps some fans in the seats (more money).

 

Reasons to not add FA's.

a) they block a talented prospect - clearly not the case in the MI, SP and RP

they are long term deals that could hamstring the team in the future - virtually no 2-3 year deal hamstrings the Twins payroll considering how much money is being cut.

[LaBombo]

I like WAR as much as anyone, but if the Twins don't use WAR to make their decisions, then these calculations don't really mean a whole lot. If they use a different set of data to arrive at the decisions they make, then we could fault them for using bad data, but they still make the decision that they feel is best and sign the players that their information tells them to sign.

 

It is entirely possible that the Twins did all their homework, looked at a variety of factors and arrived at the conclusion that they should sign Correia and Pelfrey and pass on McCarthy and Marcum.

 

To me, it seemed that the point of the WAR comparison was to refute the claim that Marcum/McCarthy in place of Correia/Pelfrey would make the rotation only "slightly more serviceable". And it does. Both M/M guys are risks, but the assertion that if healthy they are virtually indistinguishable from mediocrities like KC and MP is clearly unsound.

 

And as for the process used to decide on Correia, it hasn't really been open to debate since Ryan said this:

 

"Well, I always go back to the scouting evaluation, people that have seen him, and we saw him a lot with the Pirates, and certainly before that when he was with the Padres and the Giants. We like his makeup, he has stuff, we had evaluators tell us and me in particular that this guy is better than the numbers."

 

So Ryan is believing favorable scouting reports instead of 10 years of statistical evidence of mediocrity when evaluating a 32 year old pitcher. And it seems likely that at least a few other decisions are being made the same way, since Ryan said nothing to explain why Correia represented a unique case where stats don't apply.

[TwinsFanInPhilly]

I think St Peters tweet was awesome.

[Brad Swanson]

To me, it seemed that the point of the WAR comparison was to refute the claim that Marcum/McCarthy in place of Correia/Pelfrey would make the rotation only "slightly more serviceable". And it does. Both M/M guys are risks, but the assertion that if healthy they are virtually indistinguishable from mediocrities like KC and MP is clearly unsound.

 

And as for the process used to decide on Correia, it hasn't really been open to debate since Ryan said this:

 

 

 

So Ryan is believing favorable scouting reports instead of 10 years of statistical evidence of mediocrity when evaluating a 32 year old pitcher. And it seems likely that at least a few other decisions are being made the same way, since Ryan said nothing to explain why Correia represented a unique case where stats don't apply.

 

I don't intend to defend their methods or decisions, I'm simply stating that I don't think there is some grand conspiracy to bilk the people of Hennepin County out of money. They just made some arguably bad decisions. If the Twins use scouting instead of stats, they will make questionable decisions in the eyes of those who prefer stats. That doesn't mean they are lying about their intentions to upgrade the pitching staff and it doesn't mean that the Pohlads are a group of Music Men trying to steal our money.

[Ultima Ratio]

I guess I'm a little dense. I don't understand what's awesome about this tweet.