Article: Two-Weeks-To-Opening-Day Roster Projections

[Seth Stohs]

You can view the page at http://www.twinsdaily.com/content.php?353-Two-Weeks-To-Opening-Day-Roster-Projections

[Thrylos]

Frankly Butera hasn't done much, but JR Towles and Rene Rivera have not done anything to warrant being added to the 40 man roster to take the spot.

Rivera:

a. has the 5th best OPS from the remaining players in the Camp (.871); Towles' is .705 and Butera's .636

b. has thrown several runners out at second, while last time Butera tried to throw a runner out, end up hitting Pavano's back

c. when he catches Liriano, Liriano pitches better.

 

In my mind, if they take 3 catchers North, Rivera earned the job.

 

Also, Hollimon has the best Spring from everyone in Camp and he (1.246 OPS vs Burroughs' .713) should be rewarded for it. Burroughs is a nice story and he turned his life around but the guy with the hottest bat (and better defense - and he can play SS,3B,2B,OF) should get the job.

 

I think Maloney now is pretty much a given unless he really screws up badly. Not sure for the others. Still plenty of time left and anyone of Manship, Waldrop, Burton and Fien can get the final 2 spots. And, again, I hope they take the hottest 2 arms up, regardless of whether they were drafted by the Twins or their daddy played for the Twins... Unless there is a miracle, I think that Burnett, Wise and Gray (and his 40-man spot) are gone to Rochester.

[lee_the_twins_fan]

I also vote for Hollimon. He's just hitting so hot, he deserves a shot. And he can apparently play 2B, SS, and 3B.

 

I still think there's a chance – if Doumit doesn't hit well this spring that the twins would consider him their only backup to Mauer at CA, and would carry another bat north – probably Burroughs.

 

As for RP: I'm comfortable with Burton, Maloney, Manship, or Waldrop in the final three. I think Waldrop might be left in Rochester, but right now, that's a guess.

[Seth Stohs]

In my mind, if they take 3 catchers North, Rivera earned the job.

 

Sure, but we all know 15-20 plate appearances in spring training is not the only piece of the equation. 40 man roster spots, other position needs.

 

Also, Hollimon has the best Spring from everyone in Camp and he (1.246 OPS vs Burroughs' .713) should be rewarded for it.

 

All depends on how much value you give to 20-25 plate appearances. Hollimon has given himself a chance and I'm not a big Burroughs backer, so I'd be fine with Hollimon. He's had a good two weeks. I hope when I project next week, Hollimon's still hitting and he's played some at SS and all the infield positions. But track record plays into this too. Don't get me wrong. I hope Hollimon keeps it up. I also know back-to-back 0-4s and his OPS drops to .892. Again, I personally prefer Hollimon just for power potential from the 25th man, but my projection is based on what I think will happen as opposed to what I would do.

[raykinsella]

thrylos---all great points and reasons those players should make the opening day roster.

[Fanatic Jack]

Seth,

 

Your love for Jeff Manship is really EMBARRASSING!!! Manship has options left and can be sent down. Just like Alex Burnett, Manship has been given every opportunity to be a full time reliever over the last two years and has fallen flat on his face. It's time for a change in the bullpen and Ryan knows this. Jared Burton makes the roster "Guaranteed."Before you comment on how I'm always wrong, I was right about Nishioka and Doyle. Two more guys you thought earlier in camp were the answer to this mess.

[Dave T]

Remember that Benson-to-Casilla-to-Mauer relay throw against the Yankees a couple weeks ago? Benson is The Man in CF. Willingham better start hitting, or he will end up making the club as the backup OF.

[Seth Stohs]

Manship has been given every opportunity to be a full time reliever over the last two years and has fallen flat on his face.

Please explain, and please use Games Pitched and Innings Pitched in reliever situations ONLY to make your case.

[Thrylos]

Sure, but we all know 15-20 plate appearances in spring training is not the only piece of the equation. 40 man roster spots, other position needs.

Yes. But if they take 3 Catchers, since neither Butera or Rivera can play elsewhere, there is no advantage of Butera in any way. More than the ST appearances, Rivera is a better hitter than Butera (looking at their MiLB career numbers) and at least equal (I think he is better) defensively. Plus Liriano pitches better with Rivera catching him. Butera has a 40-man roster spot (unfortunately) which he can let go any day. Catchers like Butera are a dime a dozen

[Ultima Ratio]

Like last week, I really, really hope they don't take 3 Cs north, but send Hollimon and Burroughs along with Plouffe and Hughs. Hollimon has some power and speed, necessary for pinch running in the final bench spot. Though, if it is necessary -- and some day some one please provide a cogent argument -- to bring 3 catchers, then at this point I agree with Thrylos and bring Rivera up. We know what we get with butera, what's the harm in trying a different guy with no potential, again... if we must... <<<head shaking>>>...

[twinsfiend]

I haven't seen much about Doumit and his defense. Is he reasonable defensively? Can we do ok with him back there 3 days a week? I think Mauer will play 1 game a week at 1B, 1 game a week at DH, and 1 game off, so we need someone to play catcher those 3 days. That's 40% of the season! Plus 5 days a week we will have a catcher playing DH. Gardy hates worrying about losing the DH in a game even though it rarely happens. The other factor here is how much will Doumit play DH when he isn't catching? If he doesn't flourish there or someone else emerges in the DH role, then 2 catchers will certainly be fine.

[lee_the_twins_fan]

What I've read about Hollimon is that his injured arm, more than 2 years ago, was surgically repaired. While his arm wasn't good last year, he appears to have gained some strength in it – helping not only his throwing, but his hitting.

 

It's time to take advantage of it.

[Seth Stohs]

Manship has been given every opportunity to be a full time reliever over the last two years and has fallen flat on his face.

And, you can't use today's outing as any case for "over the last two years." Of course, he did throw a DP ball that Hollimon had an error on which may have meant a quick inning.

[Fanatic Jack]

Seth,

 

See today's 6th inning for more on the great Jeff Manship. I give you credit your were right about Jared Burton.

[Thrylos]

And, you can't use today's outing as any case for "over the last two years." Of course, he did throw a DP ball that Hollimon had an error on which may have meant a quick inning.

That ball was smoked down the line... Hollimon did not even touch it. Even the Yankee announcers said that it should had been a base hit.

[Seth Stohs]

See today's 6th inning for more on the great Jeff Manship.

Like I said, Jack, you've got to give me more than just one outing in a spring in which he's been otherwise dominant... You've got to give me more than 3.2 innings in an-injury-filled 2011.

[Gernzy]

Manship has had a solid spring until this point. He should make the team over Burnett for sure.

[Seth Stohs]

Manship has had a solid spring until this point. He should make the team over Burnett for sure.

If healthy, yes... but I think the question is Manship or Burton... Or at least it should be. Up until today's outing, it was a pretty even situation.

[Thrylos]

If healthy, yes... but I think the question is Manship or Burton... Or at least it should be. Up until today's outing, it was a pretty even situation.

I would not discount Fien either at this point. I think that Waldrop took a big step today gaining a spot, but still about a week left.

[ScottyB]

I found it interesting that at the end of the game Towles was put in at 3rd base. Could this possibly be an effort to add more flexibility to the bench? He did successfully make a play in the 9th. I think somebody somewhere wants this guy to make the team. With Doyle gone and Zumaya either on the 60 day or cut, this leaves 2 spots open on the 40-man. Room for Burroughs & Towles perhaps?

[ScottyB]

Also found it interesting the Willingham played in left today!

[Thrylos]

I found it interesting that at the end of the game Towles was put in at 3rd base. Could this possibly be an effort to add more flexibility to the bench? He did successfully make a play in the 9th. I think somebody somewhere wants this guy to make the team. With Doyle gone and Zumaya either on the 60 day or cut, this leaves 2 spots open on the 40-man. Room for Burroughs & Towles perhaps?

That was a gameday error. I watched the game on YES and Towles replaced Butera at C. Hollimon replaced Burroughs at 3B for the duration of the game.

[diehardtwinsfan]

You can take Butera off the 40 man quite easily and replace him with Towles or Rivera. There's no reason to have a 3rd catcher to prevent a pitcher hitting when the 3rd catcher is actually worse than the average pitcher. I do think Parmalee is headed north, so I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the spot in place of a 3rd catcher.

[jorgenswest]

How can we discount Hollimon's record in the minors based on a handful of spring at bats that have no meaning? His career AAA slash line is 222/320/426. His AA slash line is 252/342/439. He has over 1600 plate appearances at those levels. His OPS in the independent league was .774 and the team OPS was .805. I don't see significant speed in his minors data. There is question about his ability to play SS. What would he possibly add to the bench? Florimon would add defense. Burroughs a left handed bat.

[Seth Stohs]

How can we discount Hollimon's record in the minors based on a handful of spring at bats that have no meaning?

We shouldn't! Like I've said, I like the story, and I"m no fan of Burroughs and Hollimon does have more power than him... Neither is graet defensively, and we are talking about the 25th man on the bench. You have to go with defense/speed (which could be Florimon) or power (which would be Hollimon)... but I think it most likely would be Burroughs because h'es probably the best overall hitter of the group.

[peterb18]

You don't have to be a stat guy to determine if Manship should make the roster. Just watch him pitch! He should not be on the final roster, period.

[Seth Stohs]

You don't have to be a stat guy to determine if Manship should make the roster. Just watch him pitch! He should not be on the final roster, period.

I don't know what that means? Not tall enough? The slider isn't sharp enough? Too stocky? He's been dominant all spring. When healthy, he was a solid pitcher all the way up. He got the win in a pretty huge final weekend game two seasons ago for the Twins to send them to the playoffs. Not sure what you're saying here by "just watch him pitch." I have. A lot!

[Highabove]

Jarred Burton will make this ball club. He has been a solid and established setup man in the past. How many of the other candidates have that on their resume? The best pitchers will fill out the bullpen, regardless if they are on the 40 man roster or not.

[billymac]

The Twins obviously need to break camp with three catchers until they see how durable Mauer will be this year and find out if they can live with Doumit's skills behind the dish. The question becomes who is the third catcher? There are no decent options and neither Butera nor Rivera provide any pop off the bench. It's okay to have a third catcher as long as they play SPARINGLY. Late innings defensive replacement and catch about one out of every 10 games would be acceptable.

[kirbyelway]

The 3rd catcher thing is ridiculous!!!! We have 2 catchers on the roster, so the 3rd should only be needed in an emergency. If we have an emergency use Willingham for a couple of innings and call someone up the next day. No need to carry the 3rd catcher with you up north. Problem solved!!!!!