Game Recap: Twins 5, White Sox 4

[Taildragger8791]

13 minutes ago, Brock Beauchamp said:

Also, Sano's wRC+ is now at 102, just a tick above league average.

Which is higher than the 99 wRC+ he had in 2020.

His K% is also at 35.4%, which is... wait for it...

The lowest mark he's had since...

Literally ever. It's his lowest mark since he entered the league.

These feels like one of those situations where someone is such an outlier that they broke the advanced statistic.

It's missing a little context not being position-adjusted. Looks like league-wide wRC+ is 104 & 111 for 1B & DH this year. So still not too far off. But oof-dah that was one heck of a black hole for 3/4 of the season to date just to get to this point.

[Mike Sixel]

If you want to know what WPA is....

https://library.fangraphs.com/misc/wpa/

[joefish]

Are we #1 yet?

I can't believe that Duffey missed him.

Was Rocco pissed? How can you tell?

[Creepybachy]

Though I wanted the Twins to win. I honestly thought the White Sox was going to win.

[Nine of twelve]

Duffey did not throw at Mercedes. That pitch went exactly where he intended it to go. (IMHO.)

Sixty years ago the first pitch in Mercedes' first plate appearance would have been in his ribs at 90 mph. Whether or not that is right and good, both players, both teams, both managers, and all four umpires would have accepted it as part of the game. And that would have been the end of it. Of course, sixty years ago no team would have had such little pride as to have a third-string catcher lob 45-mph tosses from the mound. And, of course, even if that had happened no batter would have swung at 3-0 in that situation.

It all comes down to sportsmanship. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Or something like that.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Taildragger8791 said:

These feels like one of those situations where someone is such an outlier that they broke the advanced statistic.

It's missing a little context not being position-adjusted. Looks like league-wide wRC+ is 104 & 111 for 1B & DH this year. So still not too far off. But oof-dah that was one heck of a black hole for 3/4 of the season to date just to get to this point.

No, wRC+ is not position adjusted and one definitely wants better than league average from a first basemen.

My point was to show just how little Sano had played to this point and that a couple of really good games completely changes his season stat line.

[Brock Beauchamp]

1 hour ago, Dave The Dastardly said:

I'm not a stats guy so here's a question I'd like some help with:  How many games did Sano not win by striking out with RISP when the Twins were behind versus how many games did he "win" by smacking a moonshot to put the Twins in the lead and/or tie the game and the Twins eventually triumphed?

Is there a stat for that?

As Mike said, WPA calculates that.

And while Sano's WPA is kinda bad this season (-0.4), it's not terrible in the context of the 2021 Twins. Mitch Garver has been much worse at -1.3, Simmons has been marginally worse at -0.7. Sano is actually tied with Arraez at -0.4, though Arraez has played a lot more.

[Mike Sixel]

Just now, Brock Beauchamp said:

As Mike said, WPA calculates that.

And while Sano's WPA is kinda bad this season (-0.4), it's not terrible in the context of the 2021 Twins. Mitch Garver has been much worse at -1.3, Simmons has been marginally worse at -0.7. Sano is actually tied with Arraez at -0.4, though Arraez has played a lot more.

Interestingly, that means that Sano has been worse then Arraez....because Sano has accumulated more negative odds in less games......or, more accurately, he's made it more likely they'd lose than Arraez has. I expect Sano to have a slightly positive WPA by the end of the year.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Ah, finally found on B-Ref where I can sort team by WPA:

Team Win Probability*

Name	Age	PA	BtRuns	BtWins	Plays	WPA ▼
Jorge Polanco#	27	160	0.7	0.1	165	1.0
Byron Buxton (10-day IL)	27	98	15.5	1.5	105	0.9
Nelson Cruz	40	155	7.2	0.7	157	0.2
Rob Refsnyder	30	9	2.5	0.2	9	0.2
Jake Cave (60-day IL)*	28	93	-5.8	-0.6	96	0.1
Nick Gordon (40-man)*	25	3	0.6	0.1	5	0.1
Jose Berrios	27	2	-0.5	-0.1	2	0.0
Kenta Maeda	33	2	-0.3	0.0	2	0.0
Josh Donaldson	35	116	6.4	0.6	119	-0.1
Michael Pineda	32	2	-0.5	-0.1	2	-0.1
JT Riddle*	29	6	-0.1	0.0	6	-0.1
Kyle Garlick	29	67	-0.1	0.0	68	-0.2
Max Kepler*	28	119	0.8	0.1	127	-0.2
Alex Kirilloff (10-day IL)*	23	44	1.0	0.1	45	-0.2
Ben Rortvedt*	23	26	-2.0	-0.2	27	-0.2
Trevor Larnach*	24	27	1.1	0.1	27	-0.3
Luis Arraez*	24	136	1.3	0.1	142	-0.4
Miguel Sano	28	99	0.5	0.1	99	-0.4
Brent Rooker (40-man)	26	30	-3.6	-0.4	30	-0.5
Willians Astudillo	29	82	1.7	0.2	83	-0.6
Andrelton Simmons	31	110	0.3	0.0	112	-0.7
Ryan Jeffers (40-man)	24	37	-3.7	-0.4	38	-0.9
Mitch Garver	30	99	-0.4	0.0	99	-1.3
League Average
Team Total	29.2	1522	22.4	2.2	1565	-3.8

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 5/19/2021.

[Brock Beauchamp]

Just now, Mike Sixel said:

Interestingly, that means that Sano has been worse then Arraez....because Sano has accumulated more negative odds in less games......or, more accurately, he's made it more likely they'd lose than Arraez has. I expect Sano to have a slightly positive WPA by the end of the year.

Yep, that's what I meant, though I didn't really describe it well. Arraez has been marginally better than Sano, though both have been below average.

[mikelink45]

14 hours ago, theBOMisthebomb said:

La Russa gave him the take sign and the guy swung through it in an 11 run game. It was a bush league move clearly to simply pad stats and was selfish. Ignoring a sign from the manager seems to be a known (written) rule. Many times in life something is technically not wrong, which does not mean it wasn't a jerk move. I'm glad the Twins at least did something to show they have some fight. 

Sorry, I want to say bull****, but I will refrain.  Just pitch the ball, hit the ball or call the game when one team gets 10 runs.   And thanks to the editor who cleaned up my post!  

 

[SoDakTwinsFan4]

12 hours ago, Nine of twelve said:

Duffey did not throw at Mercedes. That pitch went exactly where he intended it to go. (IMHO.)

Sixty years ago the first pitch in Mercedes' first plate appearance would have been in his ribs at 90 mph. Whether or not that is right and good, both players, both teams, both managers, and all four umpires would have accepted it as part of the game. And that would have been the end of it. Of course, sixty years ago no team would have had such little pride as to have a third-string catcher lob 45-mph tosses from the mound. And, of course, even if that had happened no batter would have swung at 3-0 in that situation.

It all comes down to sportsmanship. Do unto others as you would have them do unto you. Or something like that.

No, he tried to hit him into his meaty thighs & glute (largest muscle in the human body) which, to your point, is the "sportsmanship" place to hit someone.