Draft Targets

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

So who do you guys think the Twins are targeting in the draft?

 

Despite being a Boras client, I'd love to see the Twins draft Appel if they get the chance. I think he could make a quick jump to the Majors, something this rotation could use.

[jtrinaldi]

So who do you guys think the Twins are targeting in the draft?

 

Despite being a Boras client, I'd love to see the Twins draft Appel if they get the chance. I think he could make a quick jump to the Majors, something this rotation could use.

In this order

Manaea

Appel

Stanek

Frazier/Meadows/Trey Ball (toss up, both have similar ceilings)

 

I have seen Meadows/Frazier/Ball personally. I will hopefully be seeing Manaea at the MVC tourney in May. I will be shooting 3 games of baseball over a 3 day span with my brother, and hopefully he will be pitching in the day cap. Ball is the wildcard because he is above average as a pitcher as well as hitter/outfielder. I like Frazier more than Meadows. He has a much more fluent swing than Meadows and Ball.

I have photos of several of these guys in here

UA All American game | Facebook

[gunnarthor]

It's pretty early but I agree with your opinion on Appel. I would be very happy if he fell to us at #4.

[The Greatest Poster Alive]

Also, follow up question. Last year's draft seemed to be a very solid group of top end prospects, as well as quality depth. What is the early report on draft depth this year?

[Twins Twerp]

Early reports are this is a done year again but there is still a whole season to play and alot can change.

[maxisagod]

The Twins in the past, have favored guys who do well in the Cape Cod League. Manaea did excellent there, so I'm guessing their early scouting reports are high on the lefty. The Twins minors don't have a lot of strong Lefty starters either, might be there number one need right now. The Twins will probably go with BPA with their 1st round pick, BUT all things being equal, The Twins system is low on good catchers right now and one of the drafts strength is prep catchers. As the college season starts up, look for smoke coming from the Astros, Cubs, and Rockies. The Cubs wanting Almora was leaked pretty early last year, but The Astro wanting Correa wasn't known till Bud got to the podium.

[Thrylos]

Too early to tell. Give it another 3 months

[jtrinaldi]

Also, follow up question. Last year's draft seemed to be a very solid group of top end prospects, as well as quality depth. What is the early report on draft depth this year?

This year the tiers are as follows

Tier 1: Anyone of these 5 guys could be selected #1.

Manaea/Apple/Stanek (All 3 are pitchers that project as #2's)

Frazier/Meadows: Both are outfielders with High Ceilings, it is a toss up who is better.

Tier 2

Khris Bryant,Trey Ball,Austin Wilson,JP Crawford,Oscar Mercado,Mike Lorenzen/Colin Moran

Trey Ball is the wildcard, as he is just a good pitcher as he is hitter. Mercado and Crawford are Pure shortstops who project as big league caliber, to bat at the top of the order. Both of them should be gone by 20.

One guy to keep an eye on is Jan Hernandez, who has earned comparisons to Baez, but lacks consistency.

 

Overall, I think that the Twins will take a catcher in Round 2. They should have their choice between Ciuffo,Martinez,Navaretto (has a cannon), Denney ,Collins. The prep catchers is an interesting position this year, before the UA All American game, Collins was projected to be a top 10 pick, since then he has fallen off.

But don't get me wrong, this years draft is VERY WEAK. 2014 is looking pretty strong with the likes of Alex Jackson and Touki Toussant .

[johnnydakota]

So if this is a weak draft and next years is stronger, would it make sense to make a low ball offer to our 1 pick and next year recieve the 5th pick? add in a qualifing off to justin and we end up with 3 picks in the first 35 in 2014?

 

If not then i agree Appel or Manaea as our 1st pick , and then a prep catcher,as there is a handful who project very high ,add in that they will be ready for the majors about the time Mauers contract is up...

[Willihammer]

The problem with Appel is he might improve the team before 2015

[jtrinaldi]

So if this is a weak draft and next years is stronger, would it make sense to make a low ball offer to our 1 pick and next year recieve the 5th pick? add in a qualifing off to justin and we end up with 3 picks in the first 35 in 2014?

 

If not then i agree Appel or Manaea as our 1st pick , and then a prep catcher,as there is a handful who project very high ,add in that they will be ready for the majors about the time Mauers contract is up...

This draft is much weaker than last year. Next years draft is much improved. After the top 5 of this year, there is a HUGE drop off, unless Ball establishes whether he is a pitcher or a hitter. The top 5 guys are likely to be drafted within the top 5, barring injury. If I were the Twins, I would not reach at all this year (for the prime SS like Mercado or Crawford) and take the BPA.

[Twins Twerp]

The problem with Appel is he might improve the team before 2015

 

Talk about optimistic...IF he falls to us and IF he flies through the system he MIGHT improve the team before 2015. YIKES

[Jeremy Nygaard]

I'll have a post up sometime this weekend that addresses some of these questions. Sorry its only a teaser, but it will be worth it to check back, I promise.

[gunnarthor]

So if this is a weak draft and next years is stronger, would it make sense to make a low ball offer to our 1 pick and next year recieve the 5th pick? add in a qualifing off to justin and we end up with 3 picks in the first 35 in 2014?

 

If not then i agree Appel or Manaea as our 1st pick , and then a prep catcher,as there is a handful who project very high ,add in that they will be ready for the majors about the time Mauers contract is up...

 

A lost pick is pretty costly. Even if we get the #5 pick next year, the team loses a year of player development waiting for that pick. Plus, if we don't sign the #4 pick, we lose that money in our draft slot, so the Twins would spend 4.8m (or so) less this year which could affect later picks. Buxton signed for 200,000 under slot and I believe the Twins spread that around for later picks. There would be no guarantee that the Pohlad's would spend all of a draft pool that included two top 5 picks (and could be over 15m).

 

I also think it's very unlikely that the Twins get a pick out of Morneau. I think it's far more likely that he gets traded at the deadline. If we end up holding on to him and he has a good season, I could see us offering him arbitration but I think he'd probably take it. Not a lot of teams would want to pony up that kind of deal with his injury history and lose a pick. Or, with our luck, the Yanks would sign him and another type A free agent and we'd get stuck with their 2nd round pick instead.

 

Additionally, it is way too early to worry about the depth of this (or next years) draft class. We'll draft high in both. At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent. Zimmer really improved his draft stock as did guys like Correia and Berrios in Puerto Rico. Max Fried kept climbing til draft day. And one of the consensus top picks was Devon Marrero who dropped to the Red Sox at #24 (and struggled a bit in low A).

[johnnydakota]

A lost pick is pretty costly. Even if we get the #5 pick next year, the team loses a year of player development waiting for that pick. Plus, if we don't sign the #4 pick, we lose that money in our draft slot, so the Twins would spend 4.8m (or so) less this year which could affect later picks. Buxton signed for 200,000 under slot and I believe the Twins spread that around for later picks. There would be no guarantee that the Pohlad's would spend all of a draft pool that included two top 5 picks (and could be over 15m).

 

I also think it's very unlikely that the Twins get a pick out of Morneau. I think it's far more likely that he gets traded at the deadline. If we end up holding on to him and he has a good season, I could see us offering him arbitration but I think he'd probably take it. Not a lot of teams would want to pony up that kind of deal with his injury history and lose a pick. Or, with our luck, the Yanks would sign him and another type A free agent and we'd get stuck with their 2nd round pick instead.

 

Additionally, it is way too early to worry about the depth of this (or next years) draft class. We'll draft high in both. At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent. Zimmer really improved his draft stock as did guys like Correia and Berrios in Puerto Rico. Max Fried kept climbing til draft day. And one of the consensus top picks was Devon Marrero who dropped to the Red Sox at #24 (and struggled a bit in low A).

 

agreeing on most of it,but as for arbitration justin is not eligible or bound to, i always like to think out side the box even if i return to inside the lines,with the number 4 pick we should acquire a very decent player

[Kwak]

Next year's draft? Don't worry folks--the Twins will be selecting early. The question is: will they be selecting the best player for the team?

[jtrinaldi]

A lost pick is pretty costly. Even if we get the #5 pick next year, the team loses a year of player development waiting for that pick. Plus, if we don't sign the #4 pick, we lose that money in our draft slot, so the Twins would spend 4.8m (or so) less this year which could affect later picks. Buxton signed for 200,000 under slot and I believe the Twins spread that around for later picks. There would be no guarantee that the Pohlad's would spend all of a draft pool that included two top 5 picks (and could be over 15m).

 

I also think it's very unlikely that the Twins get a pick out of Morneau. I think it's far more likely that he gets traded at the deadline. If we end up holding on to him and he has a good season, I could see us offering him arbitration but I think he'd probably take it. Not a lot of teams would want to pony up that kind of deal with his injury history and lose a pick. Or, with our luck, the Yanks would sign him and another type A free agent and we'd get stuck with their 2nd round pick instead.

 

Additionally, it is way too early to worry about the depth of this (or next years) draft class. We'll draft high in both. At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent. Zimmer really improved his draft stock as did guys like Correia and Berrios in Puerto Rico. Max Fried kept climbing til draft day. And one of the consensus top picks was Devon Marrero who dropped to the Red Sox at #24 (and struggled a bit in low A).

Buxton was never as low as 20. Buxton was always top 5 with Giolito (before injury),Appel, and Zunino. Zimmer is the one who came out of the blue, and Devin Marrero dropped after a horrid start to the season.

[gunnarthor]

Buxton was never as low as 20. Buxton was always top 5 with Giolito (before injury),Appel, and Zunino. Zimmer is the one who came out of the blue, and Devin Marrero dropped after a horrid start to the season.

 

You might be right. BA had him in there top four as early as Aug 2011. (BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Chat: Jim Callis Chat: Aug. 31) A bleacher report had him a bit lower. 2012 MLB Draft: Deven Marrero, Kevin Gausman and 25 Names You Need To Know | Bleacher Report (Buxton being a top 15 pick isn't out of the realm of possibility)

 

Anyhow, the point was that the draft will change a lot over the next few months as some players skyrocket and others slip.

[jtrinaldi]

You might be right. BA had him in there top four as early as Aug 2011. (BaseballAmerica.com: Prospects: Chat: Jim Callis Chat: Aug. 31) A bleacher report had him a bit lower. 2012 MLB Draft: Deven Marrero, Kevin Gausman and 25 Names You Need To Know | Bleacher Report (Buxton being a top 15 pick isn't out of the realm of possibility)

 

Anyhow, the point was that the draft will change a lot over the next few months as some players skyrocket and others slip.

I am just confused why you are bringing August up. This is your quote . "This point last year", is not August.

At this time last year, Buxton was considered a top 20 pick but not the best talent.

[gunnarthor]

I am just confused why you are bringing August up. This is your quote . "This point last year", is not August.

 

Guess I wasn't quite as literal as my words

[Vervehound]

i'm thinking manaea is the best player and the guy that stands out to the twins the most but i have a hard time seeing him get past the cubs, who are probably even more pitching starved then we are. there will be a second tier of pitchers that emerge - last year it was gausman and zimmer - and this year a couple of guys to keep an eye on are karsten whitson and dillon overton, along with jonathan crawford. if the twins can't justify a college arm, an up-the-midlle prep guy like jp crawford or the catcher from oklahoma could sway them.

[Ultima Ratio]

If Appel fell to #4, would he demand over slot to sign him, again?

[Joe]

i'm thinking manaea is the best player and the guy that stands out to the twins the most but i have a hard time seeing him get past the cubs, who are probably even more pitching starved then we are. there will be a second tier of pitchers that emerge - last year it was gausman and zimmer - and this year a couple of guys to keep an eye on are karsten whitson and dillon overton, along with jonathan crawford. if the twins can't justify a college arm, an up-the-midlle prep guy like jp crawford or the catcher from oklahoma could sway them.

 

I think Meadows and JP Crawford are going to be the consensus 1&2 draft day.

[nfisch22]

If you're the Twins you hope one of the top pitchers either Manaea, Stanek or Appel fall to you. If that doesn't work I'd be fine with Frazier, Meadows or even Kohl Stewart who could be an intriguing prospect who plays multiple positions including pitcher.

[Vervehound]

I think Meadows and JP Crawford are going to be the consensus 1&2 draft day.

 

possibly. but only if manaea regresses. appel is the wildcard and i think don't think stanek is as good as others do. i think one of whitson/overton/wahl will go in the top few picks as well. crawford would definitely be on my shortlist and you know the twins will be following hard this spring.

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Some teams already have Crawford on their board as an OF. If the Twins share that belief, he won't go #4. If he can convince a team - any team - that he can stick at SS, then we're having a different discussion. He'll have an interesting spring, to be sure

[jtrinaldi]

If you're the Twins you hope one of the top pitchers either Manaea, Stanek or Appel fall to you. If that doesn't work I'd be fine with Frazier, Meadows or even Kohl Stewart who could be an intriguing prospect who plays multiple positions including pitcher.

I agree with pretty much all of this other than Stewart. Steweart is out until April with a shoulder injury, and he has a very strong commitment.

 

 

He is not likely to go top 5, so the Twins won't be looking at him seriously anyways.

 

Some teams already have Crawford on their board as an OF. If the Twins share that belief, he won't go #4. If he can convince a team - any team - that he can stick at SS, then we're having a different discussion. He'll have an interesting spring, to be sure

I just want to ask, where you read anything about him ending up in Centerfield, or if that is just your opinion?

 

Here is a quote from the ESPN Draft blog about his potential as a SS

Crawford is similar to Mercado but has a more projectable frame with more current strength and bats left-handed. Crawford isn't as polished at the plate but brings above-average speed, defense and arm strength to the table in an enticing package that can stick at shortstop long-term. Crawford loads his hands higher and deeper and will bar out at times, causing contact and timing issues but has a chance to surpass Mercado in time.

[dharmacog]

I would have no problem if the Twins selected Appel with their top pick. I see a lot of draftniks this year are not very high on him, but he's always in the discussion of top prospects and clearly has nice tools. It appears the Twins would love to add a top college arm and most draft sites list 3 top guys. Of course the Twins are picking at #4, so no guarantee to get any of these. Right now my feeling is: 1-Manaea, 2-Stanek, and 3-Appel. If all three are gone my next guy is the HS outfielder Frazier. I know the system is well stocked with outfielders, but I think you go with best player and right now that's how I see it. Still, we have to let the spring play out and I'm sure the rankings will change. Someone will have an injury, regress, or take a big leap forward. Maybe a top shortstop or catcher will enter the conversation which would be nice. I'm certainly looking forward to draft day as always, especially with another high pick this year (unfortunately due to another difficult season). It should be fun!

[Physics Guy]

They should take BPA: best PITCHER available. After that they need to look at MI and C.

[diehardtwinsfan]

someone needs to be fired if the Twins take an outfielder with that pick. None of the OFers in this draft can clearly separate themselves from the others. The Twins should be taking a pitcher, middle infielder, or catcher, with an emphasis on the first two.