Marcum To Mets

ThePuck · January 25, 2013

Last night Ryan did say they still were trying to add a couple of guys to the mix. I'm not sure who else is out there at this point, so maybe? We can hope, though I think Saunders is at best a #4 or 5 guy. Still better than what we have though.

he's also said he's happy with the roster the way it is and doesn't foresee any significant moves happening before the season...

snepp · January 25, 2013

I will agree with you if you can name one free agent who has ever come to MN that was considered a Top FA. Not just with this ownership and FO, but ever? Now ask why? Maybe it is more than just throwing money to guys - Sometimes guys don't want to go to certain cities. Look how Upton turned down a chance to go to Seattle. Money is not everything for some guys.

Or the much more likely reason, they simply didn't make the offers in the first place.

The Twins are rarely, if ever, rumored to be in discussions with high end free agents. And we have quotes straight from the brass saying they will not "overpay" for pitching.

johnnydakota · January 25, 2013

Who will be held back? The Twins have Diamond and Worley in the rotation. Hendriks is going to pitch himself on or off the roster no matter what. Gibson can only pitch 140 innings.

I keep hearing people say "don't hold back the youngsters" without realizing that there aren't enough youngsters to hold back.

Come to the dark side Brock feel the power grow with in you

johnnydakota · January 25, 2013

I keep hearing people say the FO can do so much better with getting FAs here. As if they never tried. The fact is no one knows if they have or not. The thread that should be circling is "Who is the Best FA the Twins has ever signed?" Then ask why? Is it management or that players just don't want to come to the Northern part of the country? Name a Top FA to come to MN in recent years? Top!!!

You can only get top tier players in MN from farm system or trades. I'm still waiting for someone to prove me wrong. Who is the last great FA to come here?................................. In house prospects are your last hope and that winning span won't come for more 2 years. But when it does - look out.

Name a top free agent the twins offered a fair market deal to in the last 18 years?

snepp · January 25, 2013

Actually it went down further than 86.

His velocity to start the year was 87-ish, his velocity after coming back toward the end of the year was 86-ish.

johnnydakota · January 25, 2013

Wow is right. There really must be something in his health profile. Can't believe he couldn't get more than that...

Geez even Correia got more , and he left money on the table , remember?

FrodaddyG · January 25, 2013

Well, at least they've decided not to hitch their wagon to injury risk guys. Right, Worley, Pelfrey and Harden?

johnnydakota · January 25, 2013

It's trickle down my man. If you have guys like Hendricks, Deduno, Walters, Devries, etc. sitting at AAA how won't they hold guys back if there is no need for a guy to take their roster spot? And as I stated there is nothing wrong with Marcum's upside with us is his being spun for a prospect.

It's not about how much money we have. Never has been with the Twins. If that is your thoughts maybe follow the Yankee's Red Sox, Dodgers, etc. It's more about if it makes sense.

Now your telling us who to follow?

how to be fans?

ThePuck · January 25, 2013

I think getting away from Miller park will really help Marcum. In the last two years, he's got a road ERA in the mid 2s, while his ERA pitching at home was in the mid 4s...

jokin · January 25, 2013

Who will be held back? The Twins have Diamond and Worley in the rotation. Hendriks is going to pitch himself on or off the roster no matter what. Gibson can only pitch 140 innings.

I keep hearing people say "don't hold back the youngsters" without realizing that there aren't enough youngsters to hold back.

Check with Thrylos for dissent on this issue. He has a 2500 word tome on Ryan creating SP blockage all the way down to E'Town what with all the flurry of signings of big league and AAAA arms under contract.

jokin · January 25, 2013

Than you should be happy as I would consider Worley a legitimate #3.

Except for ignoring the fact he wasn't a FA pickup... good point....

nicksaviking · January 25, 2013

he's also said he's happy with the roster the way it is and doesn't foresee any significant moves happening before the season...

So many contradictions. Can our universe survive all these paradoxes? Ryan better stop screwing with the space-time continuim.

S. · January 25, 2013

I seem to recall subtle mentions of us pursuing some pretty darn good pitchers. It's a damn shame that we have so many of them that we can't sign more without fear of blocking all of those other pretty darn good pitchers we have clogging up our system.

jokin · January 25, 2013

Nobody around here had any expectation whatsoever of signing a true #1 or true #2. None. All anyone around here asked for was one of the pitchers in the #3 category.

Well, yeah, but according to Manolo, Marcum is barely better than Correia, so why bother accounting for their off-the-chart difference in WAR value (and hence trade valuation coveted by the rest of the teams) and the futility in trying for "3-5 extra wins" which is only blocking the org. from moving forward? :banghead:

Top Gun · January 25, 2013

Mets signed RHP Shaun Marcum to a one-year, $4 million contract.

He'll have a chance to earn $2 million more through incentives. The deal was reported Thursday, but Marcum passing a physical was no formality after he dealt with elbow issues last season. The right-hander posted a 3.70 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 in 124 innings last year for the Brewers and should give the Mets some solid innings if he can remain healthy.

Brock Beauchamp · January 25, 2013

Quit thinking just AAA. We all know that depth chart is thin. How do you fix that? By promoting from within or drafting players which wouldn't have a roster spot if the likes of Devries, Hendricks, Deduno, Walters, etc. are camped out at AAA.

Walters, Deduno, De Vries, et al should not be blocking any legitimate prospects. They're AAA filler, nothing more. They're the type of guy you use in a pinch and discard the moment something better comes along.

Besides, the Twins don't have any depth at AA, either. This is a non-issue.

jokin · January 25, 2013

Marcum is just way too selfish for TR - he doesn't use his fielders enough, strikes out way too many at 7.9K/9. It is the same amount as Pelfrey's base and only .5M less than Correia will make this year (he will make $4.5 this year, $5.5M next year). Boggles the mind. [1]Same risk as Pelfrey, higher reward. [2]Something's wrong somewhere with the FA signings by the Twins.

1) Half right, Marcum's risk is actually lower, potential reward at least as high, possibly higher.

2) I would say that something's seriously wrong everywhere in the FO this offseason, this is just dumb, in-over-your-head thinking and insulting to the fanbase, at least to the only-81% left who renewed their season tickets.

jokin · January 25, 2013

Hell, even a 2 or 3 year contract wouldn't have been blocking anything besides guys who wouldn't even sniff the major leagues on about 27 other teams.

Right, exactly right, except the qualifier number is "...about 29 other major league teams." When you have local columnists "scooping" the trail balloon that Hermsen has a decent shot at starting out the season in the big league rotation, you know that no one in this collection of misfits, castoffs, has-beens and never-weres are going to block anybody if they can even hint at possibly being an effective MLB starter.

lightfoot789 · January 25, 2013

Name a top free agent the twins offered a fair market deal to in the last 18 years?

The fact is that you and most everyone on this board have no idea what is ever offered by FO. You assume or heard through a third party. It is much easier to blame FO for never bringing in Top FAs, than believing no one wants to come to MN. Milwaukee has the same problem - as does Kansas City and many Northern teams. We are not a draw for young star players!! Same could be said for FAs coming to the Wolves and Bucks. Different sport - Same results. Are thier teams owned by same people? If it walks like a duck.

And someone argued that Jack Morris was the last top FA to come to MN. That was how long ago? It can't all be management? Maybe the city needs to reflect on its image and draw for FA's? Just saying. I believe Marcum just did not want to come to MN, like the other Top (1,500) FAs over the past 20+ years. TR is setting up this team the right way (thru prospects) - because NO ONE wants to come here. Proof is in the history / results.

jokin · January 25, 2013

Actually it went down further than 86. And what happened in 08'? He blew out his elbow.

I was for signing him but it isn't anything to get butt hurt about. His upside was a trade chip for a decent prospect.

PITCHf/x Pitch Velocity

Postseason | Projections | Minor Leagues | Regular Season

[TABLE=class: rgMasterTable, width: 100%]

[TH=class: rgHeader]Season[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader]Team[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vFA[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vFT[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vFC[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vFS[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vFO[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vSI[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vSL[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vCU[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vKC[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vEP[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vCH[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vSC[/TH]

[TH=class: rgHeader, align: right]vKN[/TH]

[TR=class: rgAltRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2007[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Blue Jays[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]87.6

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]82.8[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]75.8[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]81.3[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgAltRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2008[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Blue Jays[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]87.0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]88.4[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]83.4[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]75.4[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]81.4[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2010[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Blue Jays[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.9[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84.1[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]75.3[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]80.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2011[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Brewers[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.8[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]83.9[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]80.2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]72.1[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]79.3[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]2012[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Brewers[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.3

[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.3[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84.7[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]80.2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]73.0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]80.2[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[TR=class: rgRow grid_total]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]Total[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular]- - -[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]87.0[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]86.6[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]84.5[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]82.3[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]73.9[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right]80.3[/TD]

[TD=class: grid_line_regular, align: right][/TD]

[/TR]

[/TABLE]

And, he basically has replaced half his fastballs with a cutter.

snepp · January 25, 2013

Nonsense, the Twins have an embarrassment of pitching depth.

Or was it that the pitching depth is an embarrassment? I get confused sometimes.

drjim · January 25, 2013

I am stunned by this deal. We all know that the Twins are incompetent and don't know how to evaluate talent but why would 28 other teams pass on Marcum at this price? Marcum will be paid less than a whole collection of stiffs, not just Correia. There has to be something else going on here.

I don't accept this has anything to do with money or the absurd notion it might block someone in High A. There has to be something about the medicals. If he stays healthy this year and produces Ryan is worthy of being criticized but so are many other GMs.

jokin · January 25, 2013

Nonsense, the Twins have an embarrassment of pitching depth.

Or was it that the pitching depth is an embarrassment? I get confused sometimes.

Not as confused as the mythical apologists club....

S. · January 25, 2013

I believe Marcum just did not want to come to to MN, like the other Top (1,500) FAs over the past 20+ years.

So you're telling me that if we offered Marcum $5-$8M or so, which is still completely reasonable in my book, that he still would have preferred to go to the Mets? The METS?

I understand that sometimes players take lower pay to go to contenders or to be close to home or whatever, but it's absolutely ridiculous to think that we've been making good, competitive offers to pitchers since the 90s and every single one of them turned down said good offers because they "did not want to come to MN". Also, do you honestly think that somehow the Twins are the only team who has figured out how to silence the media and these pitchers' agents from talking about these good offers we've made?

Willihammer · January 25, 2013

The only thing more ridiculous than trying to project win totals for 2013 is trying to project win totals beyond 2013.

I've linked to this before, but here it is again. A compilation of 5 projections going back 2 years.https://docs.google.com/file/d/0B5pIzP28qdp-TWNCNWNIVHA1NVk/edit

Something to think about, is how actual wins have compared to pythagoran wins (ie. (runs scored)^1.83 / ((runs scored)^1.83 + (runs allowed)^1.83). The standard deviation over this period is 3.85 wins. Meaning, about 5 teams every year can be counted on to finish 4 games or worse than their pythagorean record. In the same way, 5 seemingly random teams will finish 4 games or better than their pythagorean record.

So if the Tigers are a 87 win team again, and the Twins are a 68 win team again (by Pythagorean record), there's about a 1.4% chance that the Twins finish at 73 wins or better, and the Tigers finish at 82 wins, or worse. And there's a .62% chance the Twins finish 8 games better than their Pythagorean record, while the Tigers finish 7 games worse - 76 wins to 80 wins. And that's with no improvement from the Twins roster whatsoever (or decline), and no improvement or decline overall from the Tigers team either over last year.

If the Twins improve their pythagorean record by just 5 wins, and the Tigers repeat their 87 pythagorean wins, then there is a small but real chance the Twins steal the division just by shear random pythagorean luck.

If the Twins post a pythagorean record of 78, that is, ten games better than 2012, as Gunnarthor suggests the Twins would by simply eliminating the 80 lousy starts by our AAA guys and replace them with 80 starts of replacement level (0 WAR) production, then the Twins are looking at roughly a 4% chance of posting an actual win total that's higher than any 87 Pythagorean win team.

Obviously, were Jr to bring in guys who actually produce at a positive WAR, you are only increasing your odds further.

jokin · January 25, 2013

I am stunned by this deal. We all know that the Twins are incompetent and don't know how to evaluate talent but why would 28 other teams pass on Marcum at this price? Marcum will be paid less than a whole collection of stiffs, not just Correia. There has to be something else going on here.

I don't accept this has anything to do with money or the absurd notion it might block someone in High A. There has to be something about the medicals. If he stays healthy this year and produces Ryan is worthy of being criticized but so are many other GMs.

The problem with this analysis is the greater risk that Ryan has already taken on deals much less certain to work out.

Alex · January 25, 2013

I am stunned by this deal. We all know that the Twins are incompetent and don't know how to evaluate talent but why would 28 other teams pass on Marcum at this price? Marcum will be paid less than a whole collection of stiffs, not just Correia. There has to be something else going on here.

I don't accept this has anything to do with money or the absurd notion it might block someone in High A. There has to be something about the medicals. If he stays healthy this year and produces Ryan is worthy of being criticized but so are many other GMs.

I agree that it's probably something to do with medicals.

That said, you cannot lump Ryan in with those other GMs. No other (or at least most) shouldn't be as criticized for not taking a risk on Marcum because no one else had the need the Twins do. Marcum was also the last in a line of other available pitching upgrades that the Twins didn't get.

jokin · January 25, 2013

The fact is that you and most everyone on this board have no idea what is ever offered by FO. You assume or heard through a third party. It is much easier to blame FO for never bringing in Top FAs, than believing no one wants to come to MN. Milwaukee has the same problem - as does Kansas City and many Northern teams. We are not a draw for young star players!! Same could be said for FAs coming to the Wolves and Bucks. Different sport - Same results. Are thier teams owned by same people? If it walks like a duck.

And someone argued that Jack Morris was the last top FA to come to MN. That was how long ago? It can't all be management? Maybe the city needs to reflect on its image and draw for FA's? Just saying. I believe Marcum just did not want to come to MN, like the other Top (1,500) FAs over the past 20+ years. TR is setting up this team the right way (thru prospects) - because NO ONE wants to come here. Proof is in the history / results.

This small-town, self-loathing, lightfoot doesn't border on the absurd, it puts you right in the center of the Twilight Zone.

I liked you a lot better when you were singing about that other Northern Shipwreck, the Edmund Fitzgerald. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adZiVjXFfKk

twinsnorth49 · January 25, 2013

The fact is that you and most everyone on this board have no idea what is ever offered by FO. You assume or heard through a third party. It is much easier to blame FO for never bringing in Top FAs, than believing no one wants to come to MN. Milwaukee has the same problem - as does Kansas City and many Northern teams. We are not a draw for young star players!! Same could be said for FAs coming to the Wolves and Bucks. Different sport - Same results. Are thier teams owned by same people? If it walks like a duck.

And someone argued that Jack Morris was the last top FA to come to MN. That was how long ago? It can't all be management? Maybe the city needs to reflect on its image and draw for FA's? Just saying. I believe Marcum just did not want to come to MN, like the other Top (1,500) FAs over the past 20+ years. TR is setting up this team the right way (thru prospects) - because NO ONE wants to come here. Proof is in the history / results.

I hope you don't work for Minnesota Tourism, might be a slow year.

Listen, you'd have to have been living in a cave to not know this team's history of being frugal when it comes to free agents, it's an organizational philosophy, always has been. Argue whether that makes sense all you like but don't try to shove this nonsense down our throats that the Twin Cities is such a distateful place that no highly regarded FA baseball player for the last 51 years would ever consider playing here. It's fu**ing ridiculous!!!

I'm not even from Minnesota and I find this offensive!

lightfoot789 · January 25, 2013

So you're telling me that if we offered Marcum $5-$8M or so, which is still completely reasonable in my book, that he still would have preferred to go to the Mets? The METS? Obviously 29 other teams besides the METS felt $5-$8 million was too much too. Should have offered your money. (Just kidding ) - He still has to pass physical?

but it's absolutely ridiculous to think that we haven't been making good, competitive offers to pitchers since the 90s. Yet every single one of them turned us down because they "just did not want to come to MN".

Also, do you honestly think that somehow the Twins are the only team who has figured out how to silence the media and these pitchers' agents from talking about these good offers we've made? "Trust the leaks but not the silence"

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