Article: The Scope of a Rebuild

[Nick Nelson]

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?r=1320-The-Scope-of-a-Rebuild

[mnfanforlife]

Yep, the twins are going to suck next year. Maybe in 2014 too. Doesn't matter if people agree with this approach or not. Its really the only way to ensure long-term success. You could spend all the millions you want on veteran pitchers, but those dollars wont get you into the post-season, just ask Boston.

[mlhouse]

The reason why rebuilds need to happen sooner rather than later is that it does take time to fill in all of the holes. Look at the Twins World Series rebuild that began, essentially, in 1982. It took 5 years to completely rebuild. THe reason for this is that some of the prospects and other additions fail: like closer Ron Davis and you then have to find another plug.

 

We are already 2 years behind in the rebuild mode. Lets get the Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson's on the roster and see what we got.

[mnfanforlife]

Lets get the Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson's on the roster and see what we got.

 

Gutsy and I love it

[mnfanforlife]

Its like the FO didnt want to admit they needed to rebuild following 2011

[Kwak]

Considering the people added for 2010 season and the looming impact of Mauer's contract [to be], they should have realized the need.

[mnfanforlife]

Considering the people added for 2010 season and the looming impact of Mauer's contract [to be], they should have realized the need.

 

An all-out gutting was in order, and it finally happened with Span AND Revere getting moved. Great moves, even if it cost us another awful season.

[johnnydakota]

An all-out gutting was in order, and it finally happened with Span AND Revere getting moved. Great moves, even if it cost us another awful season.

 

Still got 5 more to trade if you ask me

[mnfanforlife]

Still got 5 more to trade if you ask me

 

Check out the two trades I proposed here. I suggested they bring pitching back in trade...

[mako83]

I still belive in Saunders it means no rush to bring up gibson also allows us to bring all those guys up at the right time. So would a poseidnick, sweeney, or inge signing in the outfield. Outerwise its a lot of cheap tickets on stubhub.

[mnfanforlife]

I have absolutely no faith in what Joe Saunders brings to the table. He is just as likely to regress hard, as he is to reproduce his Baltimore numbers next year. But he is a Twins-style pitcher, in that he throws a lot of strikes. Would be a solid #4 or 5 starter on an average MLB team. So, why not make him our highest paid pitcher and anoint him our ace?

[beckmt]

Do not think Saunders will take a one year contract. Two years would not be bad, just unwise. 2014 rotation:

Diamond

Gibson

Worley

Correra

Meyer/May

 

And this does not allow for another young pitcher to make the team. I hope Harden stays healthy and the Twins could resign him if he rebounds to have a good year. Pelfrey is a one year rental. To compete in 2015 and beyond, you have to start giving the youngsters experience sooner rather than later and if that means a bad year this year, so be it.

That is also why Hicks should be the center fielder to start the year.

One last point, Parmalee should play this year, because if he does not make it, you still have the option of signing Morneau to a 2 - 3 year extension(hopefully for around 9 - 10 million a year.

Do not forget the Twins will have $25 million more in TV revenue next year.

[Brandon]

I think we are close to atleast being competetive this year. I mean we have Mauer, Doumit and 4 others capable of hitting 25-30 HR (Morneau, Willingham, Ploffe, Parmalee) Carrol is a solid on base guy. If we get someone who can be a 4th OF/ CF for insurance and maybe Kelly Johnson or Freddy Sanchez then we have a good lineup....Defense leave alot to be desired. The bullpen is above average. If we get Saunders then our rotation has a better chance to be average. That would give us a chance to be competetitve if all breaks right. That is not quite the same as what we have comming in a few years when we are hoping the next wave of prospects makes us a legitimate contender again.

[snepp]

The bullpen is above average? It wasn't last year, and they haven't done much to improve it for this season.

[mnfanforlife]

The bullpen is above average? It wasn't last year, and they haven't done much to improve it for this season.

 

Twins were 17th in the league in bullpen ERA

[silverslugger]

Always enjoy your articles Nick. I was hoping, based on the title, this article would be more about the expected timeline of rebuilds by comparing previous rebuilds of other teams. We all know about our own rebuild of the 80's. The players were up between '82 and '84 and we didn't see a championship until '87. Most of the minor leaguers we are talking about won't be up until '14 and '15 which means we should be talking about playoff baseball with that core more along the lines of '18,'19, and '20. Talking of competitiveness in '14 and '15 might be short-sighted if the core is expected to be Sano/Hicks/Arcia/Rosario/May/Meyer/Berrios.

 

Thoughts?

[johnnydakota]

Twins were 17th in the league in bullpen ERA

 

Do we have a couple of left handed relievers who can make the jump to the majors?

I have little faith in Mr. Robertson,and question the lack of attention we had to fill the void

or at least signing competition for that spot this off season.

[snepp]

Twins were 17th in the league in bullpen ERA

 

Yes they were, which was below average (3.55 AL ERA for relievers, Twins were at 3.77). And they were fortunate to rank even that "well," as suggested by their 25th/28th FIP/xFIP rankings and third lowest BABIP mark.

 

Duensing being back in the bullpen on the full-time basis will help, as will Fien pitching a full season (assuming he continues to pitch well), but above-average as a whole? That may be asking for too much.

[mnfanforlife]

Do we have a couple of left handed relievers who can make the jump to the majors?

I have little faith in Mr. Robertson,and question the lack of attention we had to fill the void

or at least signing competition for that spot this off season.

 

Theilbar is ready to contribute next season, after some time in AAA. Then Williams is probably the next best lefty, still a year or two away. Melotakis is next

[mnfanforlife]

Yes they were, which was below average (3.55 AL ERA for relievers, Twins were at 3.77). And they were fortunate to rank even that "well," as suggested by their 25th/28th FIP/xFIP rankings and third lowest BABIP mark.

 

Duensing being back in the bullpen on the full-time basis will help, as will Fien pitching a full season (assuming he continues to pitch well), but above-average as a whole? That may be asking for too much.

 

Duensing is gonna get lit up. It seems like his best years are behind him. But hey, we got player control well into his sh**ty years

[snepp]

Duensing is gonna get lit up.

 

Did he forget how to get lefties out?

[mnfanforlife]

Did he forget how to get lefties out?

 

No, he has been fine vs. lefties. But any righty or switch hitter looks like an all-star vs. Brian. His career year (2010) was really good, but he must have forgot how he was successful because its been a g.d. hit parade ever since

[snepp]

Coming out of the bullpen minimizes his exposure to righties, and can maximize his strength. He hasn't simply been "fine" vs lefties, he has owned them to the tune of a .560 OPS against.

 

He turns lefties into Jeff Mathis.

[Mike Sixel]

Basically they are gambling that anyone will even buy a ticket in 2013 or 2014. Good luck Twins.

[Brandon]

their bullpen is above average as they will get to keep Deunsing there all season and Harden will make an excellant reliever. Plus Grey will not be here next season (addition by subtraction)

[Rosterman]

I still belive in Saunders it means no rush to bring up gibson also allows us to bring all those guys up at the right time. So would a poseidnick, sweeney, or inge signing in the outfield. Outerwise its a lot of cheap tickets on stubhub.

 

The magic question is what the right time is. Do you go with temporary parts and let players arrive slowly (right time) as they usually do. A team usually adds 2-3 players that will around for 3-5+ years. They always run thru a couple of part-timers, and maybe a couple who play backend roles for a season or three. If you bring up everyone new at the same time, you are suddenly looking at multiple players in four years making bigger than expected bucks...combined with what else surrounds them.

 

The Twins ahd a tough 2011, injuries and such. As 2012 began...we had Blackburn signed longer-term and a great option on a healthy Scott Baker. Pavano was expected to be a workhorse if nothing else. Marquis was expected to be the backend starter. We all hoped Liriano would be a stud and force the Twins to invest heavily in the future. Kubel and Cuddyer were replaced. Carroll was a veteran presence for the infield. No one thought Valencia would flameout.

 

It wasn't a great team, but competitive...if the parts stayed in place. They didn't. Pavano basically died. Baker wasn't worth an expensive chance. Blackburn was a mistake. The minors were still two seasons away from contributing except for AAAA guys, who got their chance, but none worth sticking (except Diamond).

 

The Twins could spend money to make 2013 and 2014 competitive. But then they traded away the top-of-the-lineup. They added pitchers, but temporary replacements and future unknowns.

 

Rebuilding is tough. Guys have to play together and if lots of bodies are new, they set the tone on the clubhouse. There is usually failures, as a player or as a team. You may even get a shorter look as that next prospect is jsut as gren and just as hungry.

 

They have backed themselves into a corner.

 

Attendance will be a telling sign of what everyone thinks about the Twins...and , of course, their Stadium.

[PseudoSABR]

Even-handed take, Nick.

[josecordoba]

The Time-Line should be in the neighborhood of three years if things go well.

 

The Nationals were the worst team in Baseball in 2008-2009. They were the best in 2012.

 

The Detroit Tigers won 43 games in 2003! They made the World Series in 2006.

 

The San Francisco Giants won 71 games in 2007, 72 games in 2008 they won the World Series in 2010.

 

The Arizona Diamondbacks won 51 games in 2004 they advanced to the NLCS in 2007.

 

2016 Seems like a good goal factoring in the ETA of guys like Sano, Rosario, Buxton. The Pitching will develop ahead of the Bats but also factoring in Payroll Flexibility makes 2016 goal.

 

These comparsions are never going to be perfect. Rebuilding the Team would mean competing for a Playoff Spot in three years. Expectations of being the Best-Team in Baseball or Winning the World Series aren't realistic. I'm not saying these outcomes are impossible they're just not a real good way to measure the success of the Twins Front-Office.

[Mike Sixel]

So, joe, they should just punt on fans for 3 years? Serious question. And, by 2016, what will Mauer be? What is the point of paying him $23MM per year, if you are not even going to try to win?

[drjim]

The bullpen is above average? It wasn't last year, and they haven't done much to improve it for this season.

 

Yes they were, which was below average (3.55 AL ERA for relievers, Twins were at 3.77). And they were fortunate to rank even that "well," as suggested by their 25th/28th FIP/xFIP rankings and third lowest BABIP mark.

 

Duensing being back in the bullpen on the full-time basis will help, as will Fien pitching a full season (assuming he continues to pitch well), but above-average as a whole? That may be asking for too much.

 

I won't argue with ranks but I have to think the performance was greatly impacted by how historically bad the rotation was. There is some talent at the back end and if the starters can get a couple more outs a start that will limit some of the exposure of the guys in the middle and long relievers. This should lead to better performance overall.

 

The flip side is that if the Twins are truly rebuilding (which they should be) then Perkins and Burton are among their best tfade options at the deadline.