Cubs to sign Kimbrel

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The biggest error in the projection: Odorizzi/Gibson $36M

To be fair, his revision drops one of those (but it also shows a $133 mil payroll with $15.5 mil allocated to Parker and a FA RP)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Yes, you could swap out Parker and the FA for Kimbrel, but that makes an already shaky bullpen that I have projected above, and makes it even thinner.

Swap out Parker and the FA for Kimbrel and the 2021 version of 2019 Parker ($1.8 mil guarantee) and there's no extra thinness, and a net cost of only $2.3 mil more than your projection.

 

(And a reminder: I didn't particularly want Kimbrel at that price for 2021, but I'm just saying that it can and should have been an option on the table. Hopefully the FO was right that there's a better option soon to be found!)

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Those arb numbers and extensions all seem to assume 2019 health and performance going forward, which has obviously been pretty great. A single slump or injury -- which is likely to occur somewhere -- would knock millions off your estimates.

If they keep playing like the 2019 squad, and winning, I think the payroll can grow. If they are at $120-130 mil these past two years, with fan interest -- ticket sales, advertising dollars -- coming off fairly pedestrian .500-ish performances, I could see $140 mil off of a 90 win season, and maybe even $150 mil off a deep playoff run (which adds significant revenue).

Yeah, I was going to say those arb numbers look really high.

 

The Twins could keep both their core and pay Kimbrel. I don't think that should really be up for debate. The acquisition of Kimbrel would limit the team's ability to operate in free agency but the core could and should stay in place.

 

What the argument comes down to is how the front office evaluated Kimbrel and whether they're right about him.

 

If they view Kimbrel as a declining asset and Kimbrel actually declines, it'll be hard to argue with their decision in years to come.

 

Or if they go get a really good reliever in the coming weeks, a guy they have to pay half what Kimbrel gets, and they properly evaluate their own system and give up prospects that won't hurt too much later, it'll be hard to argue with their decision in years to come.

 

A lot of moving parts here and while it's fine to be disappointed, the front office did enough right this offseason that I'll give them a little leeway until we see how June and July unfold.

 

Though I will never understand why they weren't more aggressive about this last December.

[Mike Sixel]

I like the analysis of the roster, and overall budget as context. What it tells me most is that Rosario is going to get traded....

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I like the analysis of the roster, and overall budget as context. What it tells me most is that Rosario is going to get traded....

I love Rosario but it makes sense. The Twins have Kirilloff coming at some point and Rosario would bring back a solid return at a position of need.

[Mike Sixel]

I love Rosario but it makes sense. The Twins have Kirilloff coming at some point and Rosario would bring back a solid return at a position of need.

Same. The baserunnung adventures can be interesting.... But I'd rather have him around. But, they are loaded with OF prospects, and they have a budget.

 

Back to what it means for pitching, I think it more likely they have another minimum guy starting than the current list.

[Squirrel]

 

I love Rosario but it makes sense. The Twins have Kirilloff coming at some point and Rosario would bring back a solid return at a position of need.

Sigh. It's always the players I like the most.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I like the analysis of the roster, and overall budget as context. What it tells me most is that Rosario is going to get traded....

The Marlins indeed traded Ozuna after what would correlate to Rosario's 2019 season (arb1), and didn't get much in return, even coming off a 149 OPS+. Maybe that was just the Marlins being the Marlins, but there might not be a great trade opportunity available. Rosario's still primarily a corner OF with a career 111 OPS+, and a peak of 122 so far.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

The Marlins indeed traded Ozuna after what would correlate to Rosario's 2019 season (arb1), and didn't get much in return, even coming off a 149 OPS+. Maybe that was just the Marlins being the Marlins, but there might not be a great trade opportunity available. Rosario's still primarily a corner OF with a career 111 OPS+, and a peak of 122 so far.

I think you might be right but, as you pointed out, the Marlins are just about the worst benchmark to use for anything except futility.

[USAFChief]

 

I think you might be right but, as you pointed out, the Marlins are just about the worst benchmark to use for anything except futility.

They've dealt Stanton, Yelich, Realmuto, and Ozuna. 

 

Now there's a fan base that has every right to **** and moan.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

They've dealt Stanton, Yelich, Realmuto, and Ozuna. 

 

Now there's a fan base that has every right to **** and moan.

People wildly overuse the "worst ownership in sports" tag on their own teams but Marlins fans have a legit claim to that "title".

[Mike Sixel]

The Marlins indeed traded Ozuna after what would correlate to Rosario's 2019 season (arb1), and didn't get much in return, even coming off a 149 OPS+. Maybe that was just the Marlins being the Marlins, but there might not be a great trade opportunity available. Rosario's still primarily a corner OF with a career 111 OPS+, and a peak of 122 so far.

That sort of makes my point. If that's all he is worth in trade, he probably isn't worth ten percent of this team's budget.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think you might be right but, as you pointed out, the Marlins are just about the worst benchmark to use for anything except futility.

To be fair, the Marlins did get top prospects for Yelich, they've just failed so far (and Yelich took off). They also got well-regarded prospects for Realmuto, although those prospects might find the same fate!

 

I guess the Ozuna trade was more about shedding his rising salary. The Twins should be able to hold onto Rosario if that's all the market bears.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

That sort of makes my point. If that's all he is worth in trade, he probably isn't worth ten percent of this team's budget.

Perhaps, although if his presence helps us to play Kirilloff, Larnach, and others cheaply at 1B/DH (and cover some OF too as needed), we may not need the salary relief.

[Mike Sixel]

Perhaps, although if his presence helps us to play Kirilloff, Larnach, and others cheaply at 1B/DH (and cover some OF too as needed), we may not need the salary relief.

True. It's about the system, not one player.

[Mr. Brooks]

People wildly overuse the "worst ownership in sports" tag on their own teams but Marlins fans have a legit claim to that "title".

Not as long as Glen Taylor is around.

[Mr. Brooks]

Those arb numbers and extensions all seem to assume 2019 health and performance going forward, which has obviously been pretty great. A single slump or injury -- which is likely to occur somewhere -- would knock millions off your estimates.

 

If they keep playing like the 2019 squad, and winning, I think the payroll can grow. If they are at $120-130 mil these past two years, with fan interest -- ticket sales, advertising dollars -- coming off fairly pedestrian .500-ish performances, I could see $140 mil off of a 90 win season, and maybe even $150 mil off a deep playoff run (which adds significant revenue).

I think the Bamtech money was the main driver of last year's increased payroll though, so I'm not sure we can use that as a benchmark.

I'll be shocked, pleasantly, if the Twins have an opening day payroll of $150 million anytime soon.

[Mr. Brooks]

The biggest error in the projection: Odorizzi/Gibson $36M

I mean, Ricky Nolasco got $12 million per year. Starting pitching is expensive on the open market, I don't understand why you think this is inaccurate?

[Mr. Brooks]

Rosario is already getting $690k more than Ozuna as an arb1. How does that level of inflation rise to $5 mil by arb3?

 

And Ozuna had a breakout season after his arb1 award, 149 OPS+, followed by a 107, and still only wound up at $12.25 mil in arb3. Rosario, for all his homers, still only has a 122 OPS+ for 2019 so far, and a 111 career.

 

Seems unlikely that Rosario would get $17 mil in arb3. This is the kind of projection optimism that seems to permeate your list. Which is why in reality, I don't think it would be that difficult to add a $16 mil commitment for 2021 right now.

Fair, but I don't think the others are wildly optimistic. These are good players, that's why we have the second best record in baseball. Good players get paid. If we don't think they'll continue to be good, then what's the point of having Kimbrel on the 2021 roster anyway?

[Mr. Brooks]

For the record, I did read your post all the way through. Your second revision, dropping Cron and one of Gibson/Odo, is probably closer to reality, although it still includes your optimism for Rosario, Berrios, Buxton, etc. as already noted.

 

And that second revision comes in at basically our exact same 2018 payroll, with $15.5 mil allocated for two FA/old relievers. Which actually kind of proves my point that fitting in a $16 Kimbrel commitment for 2021 wouldn't be that hard.

 

If by "breaking up the core" you mean not extending Cron at $11 mil per year through age 33, and Gibson at $18 mil per through age 35, and Parker at $7.5 mil per through age 36 -- well, I think enough of those decisions will be made anyway, regardless of Kimbrel, to give us at least $16 mil in 2021 flexibility.

My personal opinion is that you don't appreciate just how good Berrios and Buxton are, if you think those salary estimates are somehow out of line.

[Mr. Brooks]

Swap out Parker and the FA for Kimbrel and the 2021 version of 2019 Parker ($1.8 mil guarantee) and there's no extra thinness, and a net cost of only $2.3 mil more than your projection.

 

(And a reminder: I didn't particularly want Kimbrel at that price for 2021, but I'm just saying that it can and should have been an option on the table. Hopefully the FO was right that there's a better option soon to be found!)

Even if he can be squeezed in with the manner you suggest, how are they affording improvements in free agency each year?

Because I'm sure the same people complaining about the cheap Pohlad's for not signing Kimbrel would be totally cool if they took the next two offseasons off.

 

My mind is completely open to being changed, I'd appreciate if you get the time to do a similar projection that keeps the core together (Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Sano, Berrios, Rogers) AND manages to find a way to add talent in the next two free agency periods. I just don't think the pieces fit as easily as you think.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My personal opinion is that you don't appreciate just how good Berrios and Buxton are, if you think those salary estimates are somehow out of line.

I think they're good players and they will get paid. For them, I was mainly referring to how your original $20 mil estimate became $29 mil.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Fair, but I don't think the others are wildly optimistic. These are good players, that's why we have the second best record in baseball. Good players get paid. If we don't think they'll continue to be good, then what's the point of having Kimbrel on the 2021 roster anyway?

If these guys prove to be second-best-record-baseball good, then they'll probably have enough trade value where we'll want to swing some deals for baseball reasons rather than salary reasons. (And as I mentioned, if they continue to be second-best-record-in-baseball good, we probably won't have a firm $130 mil salary limit in 2021 either.)

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

My mind is completely open to being changed, I'd appreciate if you get the time to do a similar projection that keeps the core together (Rosario, Buxton, Kepler, Garver, Polanco, Sano, Berrios, Rogers) AND manages to find a way to add talent in the next two free agency periods. I just don't think the pieces fit as easily as you think.

I think I already mentioned, but your revised projection is pretty close to what I'd guess at this point. Those numbers already work, even if some of your estimates are on the high side.

 

What significant talent do you think we'd need to add in FA? We're already the second best team in baseball.

 

But seriously, I think we've got internal replacements for Schoop and Castro. We can keep one of Gibson/Odorizzi or sign someone similar in FA. By 2021 we should have replacements for Cron, Cruz, and Marwin too. If we're signing someone to a multi-year deal, we can easily work around any 2021 commitments if we want. If it's one year contracts, then maybe some of our core isn't working out and we'll be making adjustments anyway (i.e. unloading Rosario).

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think the Bamtech money was the main driver of last year's increased payroll though, so I'm not sure we can use that as a benchmark.
I'll be shocked, pleasantly, if the Twins have an opening day payroll of $150 million anytime soon.

We're pretty close to last year's payroll right now, and we're expecting to add something midseason, so it seems more than a one-off thing.

 

If we really keep playing like this, over 2019 and 2020, why wouldn't they push it close to $150 mil? Add a Verlander type as a final piece for a great team? They'd be raking in some good revenue by that point.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think they're good players and they will get paid. For them, I was mainly referring to how your original $20 mil estimate became $29 mil.

I addressed that already.

The $20 million was the bare minimum I thought you could get away with paying them with back loaded extensions. The $29 million is if it plays out year to year.

I used the $29 million because I don't actually believe any extension would pay them that little, just that it's in the realm of possibility if they were severely back loaded.

[Mr. Brooks]

I think I already mentioned, but your revised projection is pretty close to what I'd guess at this point. Those numbers already work, even if some of your estimates are on the high side.

 

What significant talent do you think we'd need to add in FA? We're already the second best team in baseball.

 

But seriously, I think we've got internal replacements for Schoop and Castro. We can keep one of Gibson/Odorizzi or sign someone similar in FA. By 2021 we should have replacements for Cron, Cruz, and Marwin too. If we're signing someone to a multi-year deal, we can easily work around any 2021 commitments if we want. If it's one year contracts, then maybe some of our core isn't working out and we'll be making adjustments anyway (i.e. unloading Rosario).

Maybe we won't need FA additions. But my point is that you know this place would go haywire if they sat out FA completely, let alone two years in a row. The pohlad's are cheap argument regarding Kimbrel would look like a "meh" compared to what we'd see in that case.

[Mr. Brooks]

We're pretty close to last year's payroll right now, and we're expecting to add something midseason, so it seems more than a one-off thing.

 

If we really keep playing like this, over 2019 and 2020, why wouldn't they push it close to $150 mil? Add a Verlander type as a final piece for a great team? They'd be raking in some good revenue by that point.

Most revenue now comes from media deals. They reportedly spend half of revenue on payroll. That would mean a $50 million per season increase would be needed to support a $25 million per season payroll increase.

Is that really feasible just from increased attendance alone?

[Otto von Ballpark]

I addressed that already.

The $20 million was the bare minimum I thought you could get away with paying them with back loaded extensions. The $29 million is if it plays out year to year.

I used the $29 million because I don't actually believe any extension would pay them that little, just that it's in the realm of possibility if they were severely back loaded.

Severino's extension pays him $10 mil as an arb2, doesn't seem unreasonable that Berrios would get something like that too, either in award or extension.

 

Buxton is only making $1.75 mil in arb1 too, so I don't think he will necessarily blow way past $10 mil in arb3 in award or extension.

 

That change plus the Rosario estimate seemed like you were trying to frame the numbers to fit your conclusion rather than the other way around.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Maybe we won't need FA additions. But my point is that you know this place would go haywire if they sat out FA completely, let alone two years in a row. The pohlad's are cheap argument regarding Kimbrel would look like a "meh" compared to what we'd see in that case.

Who cares? They're not plan their roster and payroll based on TD reaction. (Or are they? Should I use more emojis? )