Rosenthal: Kimbrel to the Cubs

[Mike Sixel]

$10 million this year? I think they could still add a couple of relievers via trade...

The $16 million the next two years... I'd throw a bunch of money at Berrios, Rosario and Buxton. Those guys, plus Sano, Rogers and others will also still be arb eligible. Plus, they will need to either lock up guys like Gibson and Odorizzi, or sign starters for a similar amount. And they can sign more relievers too

 

Added: I don't care about the money... but I understand them standing pat and not giving a third year and a fourth year option.

And next year, they'll need to spend money on relievers, because no one is stopping up in the minors. Or, they could punt the bullpen again.

[Seth Stohs]

 

And next year, they'll need to spend money on relievers, because no one is stopping up in the minors. Or, they could punt the bullpen again.

 

I included relievers in my "things the Twins will need to spend money on in 2020 and 2021" comment.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I included relievers in my "things the Twins will need to spend money on in 2020 and 2021" comment.

 

You did, but then you said they needed to not spend money to extend players.......so I'm not sure how that works.

[Mr. Brooks]

It cements the idea that Twins ownership would rather make money with a mediocre team than win and lose money. Sucks, but it's reality.

Which franchises are not run like a business?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Which franchises are not run like a business?

 

None, I'd guess, now that the Detroit owner is dead.....but you can choose to make more or less money.....I think Vanimal's point is clear. From the outside, it appears that making more money is more important than making more wins.

 

Which is fine, but also raises the question, why should we give them our money if they don't want to win as much as we want them to? Among a lot of other questions about fandom vs ownership, that probably aren't a good segue in this thread....

[biggentleben]

This offseason, for $16M, the team could sign Will Smith, Steve Cishek, and Hector Rondon...or they could have Craig Kimbrel, who is not sure to be healthy.

 

Pretty sure I know where the money is better spent, but names are big deals so some...

[Vanimal46]

Which franchises are not run like a business?

What Mike said... For me, sports are entertainment. Obviously billionaires remain that way by making money in their ventures. Doesn't mean I have to agree with it. Spending another $10-15 million over a couple of years isn't going to cripple the Pohlads financially.

[USAFChief]

 

This offseason, for $16M, the team could sign Will Smith, Steve Cishek, and Hector Rondon...or they could have Craig Kimbrel, who is not sure to be healthy.

 

Pretty sure I know where the money is better spent, but names are big deals so some...

How is that related to the 2019 Twins?

 

 

 

I

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

This offseason, for $16M, the team could sign Will Smith, Steve Cishek, and Hector Rondon

All three? And for how many years?

 

And what are the odds they actually do that?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

Brandon Morrow is about a month away from returning and with about $4.5M left in his contract.  Great opportunity for the Twins to jump the gun and go get him from the Cubs.

 

 

Why would the Cubs sign Kimbrel, then turn around and sell on Morrow?

 

I guess they could deal Morrow to shave some money off their luxury tax payroll after adding Kimbrel. Kind of like how the Dodgers needed to send Forsythe back in the Dozier deal? But I don't know the particulars of their situation.

[Vanimal46]

They pushed for Kimbrel because Morrow isn't close to coming back. I have no idea where Thrylos got the one month return date from.

 

https://www.cbssports.com/g00/fantasy/baseball/news/cubs-brandon-morrow-throwing-from-90-feet/?i10c.ua=1&i10c.encReferrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8%3d&i10c.dv=7

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

I think front offices are maybe over valuing that draft pick compensation deal.  Just seems kind of nuts that he can get this deal now that the what, #37 pick isn't going to be forfeited.  I just pulled that out of thin air--what pick WOULD the Cubs had given up if they'd just done this a month or 3 ago?

Cubs would have had to forfeit their 2nd highest pick, which was only #64. Also they'd have to forfeit $500k from their international bonus pool allotment.

 

But there were also luxury tax benefits:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/06/cubs-to-sign-craig-kimbrel.html

 

 

 

While the Cubs always seemed like a good on-paper fit, they seemingly only emerged late in the game due to some unexpected luxury tax room opening up.  Ben Zobrist’s placement on the restricted list on May 8 means that his salary no longer counted towards Chicago’s luxury tax calculations, and if Zobrist misses the entire season (which seems increasingly likely at this juncture), the Cubs would have around $9MM to work with, money has seems to have fueled their push for Kimbrel.

...

Prior to the Kimbrel signing, Roster Resource projected the Cubs at just over $227.7MM in luxury tax payroll, putting the team in line for a 20% tax on every dollar spent above the $206MM luxury tax line, and then an additional 12% surtax for going more than $20MM over the line.  The average annual value of Kimbrel’s deal works out to $14.333MM per season, thus keeping the Cubs from exceeding the $246MM maximum penalty threshold.  Spending more than $246MM would cost the Cubs 62.5% surcharge on the overage, and their top draft pick in 2020 would be dropped by ten slots.

So it could be a win-win situation for Chicago, as the team looks to both avoid the top tax threshold while also getting a closer to bolster a bullpen that has generally been around the middle of the pack this season.

 

Morrow was originally expected to return in April, so I guess they gambled on that, saved the pick, and wiggled under the top luxury tax threshold?

[James]

 

It cements the idea that Twins ownership would rather make money with a mediocre team than win and lose money. Sucks, but it's reality.

I think that the Pohlads are smart enough to realize that they make more money by fielding a good team and selling out games than continuing to field crappy teams.  They did spend some money in the offseason.  Yes, the payroll isn't extremely high, but payrolls tend not to be super large when you a team mostly of pre-arb/early arb players. 

 

Could they spend more?  Absolutely.  Would I have liked Kimbrel?  Absolutely... for this year and next year.  I probably would have for three, but not that 4th year option.  Also, we don't know what kind of demands Kimbrel made of the Twins.  Would you want him if he told you that he'd only plitch the 9th inning?  

 

I just don't think the Twins not getting Kimbrel necessarily means that the ownership/front office was being cheap.  Not ruling it out, but in this case, I have a feeling that it was the length of the contract and not the money that gave them pause.  

[Vanimal46]

Sure, I wouldn't mind if Kimbrel only wanted to pitch the 9th inning. He's better than Parker, who's pitched in the 9th inning in 59% of his appearances.

[TheLeviathan]

 

Sure, I wouldn't mind if Kimbrel only wanted to pitch the 9th inning. He's better than Parker, who's pitched in the 9th inning in 59% of his appearances.

 

If it matters to Kimbrel, I'm guessing he wanted that percentage much higher.

[Vanimal46]

If it matters to Kimbrel, I'm guessing he wanted that percentage much higher.

No reliever on roster would prevent that from becoming a reality.

[Mr. Brooks]

None, I'd guess, now that the Detroit owner is dead.....but you can choose to make more or less money.....I think Vanimal's point is clear. From the outside, it appears that making more money is more important than making more wins.

 

Which is fine, but also raises the question, why should we give them our money if they don't want to win as much as we want them to? Among a lot of other questions about fandom vs ownership, that probably aren't a good segue in this thread....

They aren't trying to win because they didn't sign the player you want?

They have the second best record in baseball, and still have 7 weeks to add bullpen help.

[Mr. Brooks]

No reliever on roster would prevent that from becoming a reality.

What if they decided that there might be times that Kimbrel would be more useful in innings other than the ninth?

If Kimbrel is demanding that he be allowed to make managerial decisions, then I wouldn't want him for the league minimum.

[Mr. Brooks]

What Mike said... For me, sports are entertainment. Obviously billionaires remain that way by making money in their ventures. Doesn't mean I have to agree with it. Spending another $10-15 million over a couple of years isn't going to cripple the Pohlads financially.

And giving you a free Tesla isn't going to cripple Elon Musk. Do you go online demanding that Elon Musk give you a free Tesla?

 

The point, the ENTIRE point of business is to maximize profits. Not, make some profit, but make the most profit that the market will bear.

This is how every successful business has been run in the history of capitalism. I just don't understand why people expect sports franchises to somehow be different.

[Mike Sixel]

And giving you a free Tesla isn't going to cripple Elon Musk. Do you go online demanding that Elon Musk give you a free Tesla?

 

The point, the ENTIRE point of business is to maximize profits. Not, make some profit, but make the most profit that the market will bear.

This is how every successful business has been run in the history of capitalism. I just don't understand why people expect sports franchises to somehow be different.

Well, I'll try.

 

First, want and expect are two different things.

 

Second, there are owners that spend beyond profitable levels.

 

Third, one can hope that when the team is super competitive that the owner will take less profit to win. Hope it's also different than expect.

[Mr. Brooks]

Well, I'll try.

 

First, want and expect are two different things.

 

Second, there are owners that spend beyond profitable levels.

 

Third, one can hope that when the team is super competitive that the owner will take less profit to win. Hope it's also different than expect.

The Pohlad's don't operate that way though. They aren't baseball people.

I'm sure they'd like to win, but only because winning brings fans. They are businessmen. Winning to them is maximizing profit. They don't view this business as different than any other business venture.

 

Ray Kroc didn't care about winning James Beard awards, he cared about making billions of dollars.

 

I just don't understand the reason to constantly complain about something that is never going to change. It'd be like constantly complaining to everyone how stupid it is that humans don't have wings.

[Mike Sixel]

The Pohlad's don't operate that way though. They aren't baseball people.

I'm sure they'd like to win, but only because winning brings fans. They are businessmen. Winning to them is maximizing profit. They don't view this business as different than any other business venture.

 

Ray Kroc didn't care about winning James Beard awards, he cared about making billions of dollars.

 

I just don't understand the reason to constantly complain about something that is never going to change. It'd be like constantly complaining to everyone how stupid it is that humans don't have wings.

Nothing about fandom is rational.....

 

And, people do change. For the first time in how long, this team has leadership from outside? It's not like wins at all....

[TheLeviathan]

 

No reliever on roster would prevent that from becoming a reality.

 

No, not based on talent.  But that's not how our bullpen is being run either.  (With good reason)

[Vanimal46]

What if they decided that there might be times that Kimbrel would be more useful in innings other than the ninth?

If Kimbrel is demanding that he be allowed to make managerial decisions, then I wouldn't want him for the league minimum.

Do you really think Kimbrel is going to make demands to Theo and Joe Madden he's only going to pitch the 9th? Do you think if Madden wants him to pitch in the 7th or 8th inning he's going to flat out refuse and throw a tantrum like a toddler? Come on. I'm sure he just wants to win baseball games.

[Vanimal46]

And giving you a free Tesla isn't going to cripple Elon Musk. Do you go online demanding that Elon Musk give you a free Tesla?

 

The point, the ENTIRE point of business is to maximize profits. Not, make some profit, but make the most profit that the market will bear.

This is how every successful business has been run in the history of capitalism. I just don't understand why people expect sports franchises to somehow be different.

Your example doesn't register with me. I don't see how fans asking a billionaire to spend more on a team he owns is remotely comparable to me demanding an organization give me a free commodity like a car. Try again.

[Mr. Brooks]

Your example doesn't register with me. I don't see how fans asking a billionaire to spend more on a team he owns is remotely comparable to me demanding an organization give me a free commodity like a car. Try again.

That's not what I was comparing.

I was comparing your, "spending $15 million isn't going to break Jim Pohlad" comment. How much or how little the money means to him is completely irrelevant.

 

If he thinks spending $15 million more will make him more profit, he'll do it in a heartbeat. If he thinks it won't, then he will not do it, nor should he. Just like every other successful business in America. Every, single, one.

 

Continuing to pile on a business owner for running his business like a business is getting crazy around here.

It gets to a point where it's not advancing any kind of conversation at all any more, it's just beating a dead horse.

 

Can't we just state the fact that this is how he runs the business, once, and then move on to things that are actually malleable, like what the FO does with the budget they are allocated? Instead of turning every decision we don't like into a expose on how cheap the Pohlad's are?

[Mr. Brooks]

Do you really think Kimbrel is going to make demands to Theo and Joe Madden he's only going to pitch the 9th? Do you think if Madden wants him to pitch in the 7th or 8th inning he's going to flat out refuse and throw a tantrum like a toddler? Come on. I'm sure he just wants to win baseball games.

If he just wants to win games, and isn't going to demand to pitch the 9th, then why are we discussing it? I never suggested that was his stance, just gave my opinion of how I felt IF that was the case. A hypothetical stance that you had no problem engaging in before.

[biggentleben]

 

What Mike said... For me, sports are entertainment. Obviously billionaires remain that way by making money in their ventures. Doesn't mean I have to agree with it. Spending another $10-15 million over a couple of years isn't going to cripple the Pohlads financially.

 

You cannot want your front office to employ business analytics in building the team and evaluating players and also treat the team as a non-business. That simply doesn't work.

[biggentleben]

 

How is that related to the 2019 Twins?

 

 

 

I

 

It's $10M this year. There will be prospect cost as well, but there are a number of relievers that you can acquire that make less than $10M when combined.

[biggentleben]

 

All three? And for how many years?

 

And what are the odds they actually do that?

 

Yes, you could do all three, and likely for 2-3 years, with Smith likely making the most and having the longest contract terms.

 

The odds are all based on what the Twins see in the pitchers they have in-house, along with what they could acquire via trade. Remember that just two offseasons ago, the Twins did go "all-in" on relievers, bringing in 3 veteran relievers, much to the delight of the fan base. Those three relievers combined for a 3.81 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 8% BB, and 21.7% K over 137 innings. For that, the team paid over $21M.

 

This past offseason, the team signed two pitchers that have appeared in the Twins bullpen this season (Mike Morin and Blake Parker), and at the end of the season, they will max out with less than $2.5M spent on those two arms and yet they've received 32 innings with a 2.81 ERA and 0.94 WHIP through roughly 2.25 months of the season.

 

In other words, spending the big money on a bullpen isn't always the answer.