2019 draft

[biggentleben]

 

Drafting of pitcher is such a crapshoot.  Finding consistent front line pitching is difficult.  In drafting 13-42. teams are not going to get  Verlander Price, Cole, Scherzer, Strassburg, or Kershaw . They did not fall that far.  Even then top 13 doesn't mean success. Hochevar off the top of my head comes to mind

 

Past drafts pitchers drafted between 13 and 42

2011. 15. pitchers  Jose Fernandez,  Sonny Gray.  Fulmer if you want to stretch front line pitching. 12 others sis not develop into top of rotation pitchers

2010  14 pitchers. Thor and Sale

2009 13 pitchers.  No way could you call Gibson a consistent front line starter

2008 15 pitcher

2007 13 pitchers Porcello did win a Cy Young.

2006 14 pitchers

 

Drafted outside of the top 42 you find as recent top of the rotation pitchers, DeGrom, Kluber,  Arrietta, Keuchel

 

Worth looking at is a Ruesse rant on Twins drafting of pitchers. It is safe to assume he was not a fan of Deron Johnson. http://www.startribune.com/taking-college-pitchers-with-high-draft-choices-failed-as-twins-strategy/475175653/

 

Want to spend money for information? It might be good information, might not. I did not spend the money. If somebody does, please discuss.  https://d1baseball.com/prospects/d1-analytics-top-2019-draft-eligible-pitchers/

 

The guys over at D1 Baseball do some of the best college coverage in the business, so I do pay for their work, and they had an update to the link you posted, though it was done midseason (April 11), so I'm wagering there will be one more update. That said, the top guy on that list was Connor Thomas, who is a 5'11", 175-pound righty from Georgia Tech who struggles to touch 90, but he does have a plus slider and at least plus command, if not better. He's ranked in the 300s on BA's top 500 list, and he's likely a day 2 or day 3 pick that could just end up back at school for his senior year. There's a point where statistical analysis is great, but in drafting, eyes on the player is going to always take significant precedent.

[diehardtwinsfan]

I'd be happy if Manoah fell, but right now I'm kind of hoping for Langileers.

[gunnarthor]

Actually, looking at the fangraphs mock, I'd be pretty happy with it.

 

Jung is a guy I thought we'd take for awhile and have mentioned him several times. Big strong bat would fit in well with our style of players and the next core group moving up.

 

Shewmake is a MI with strong hit tools and good make-up who probably won't fall to #39 but would be a nice get if he did. He's tall. He seems like the type who might move quickly.

 

Hearn is a big high school catcher who is built like a fire hydrant and has plus power and arm. According to pipeline, some teams have him as the #1 high school catcher in the draft.

[drivlikejehu]

 

If the Indians thought those guys would be that good, they would have taken them in round 1........of course players are found later in the draft, over 1000 players are drafted every year.......but the best talent, those most likely to succeed, are taken early. The odds drop drastically after round 1. 

 

Of course there are other ways to get pitchers, but the draft is the sustainable way to do so......IFA is just a different kind of draft......

 

I'm not suggesting not taking good players, I'm suggesting that if you don't take pitchers early as a philosophy, you need to be willing to trade for them and sign them. If you think something like Perez is not a rare event, I'm not sure if we'll agree.....

 

The Indians didn't know how good any one particular player would be. But the Indians did know that if they took enough guys with the potential to succeed, and coached them up, they would likely get results. Even in the first round, picks are far from a guarantee, and most prospects ultimately fail . . . it's all about probabilities.

 

Of course, they are falling apart this year from a lack of position player depth. It's a tough balancing act.

 

 

[biggentleben]

 

The Indians didn't know how good any one particular player would be. But the Indians did know that if they took enough guys with the potential to succeed, and coached them up, they would likely get results. Even in the first round, picks are far from a guarantee, and most prospects ultimately fail . . . it's all about probabilities.

 

Of course, they are falling apart this year from a lack of position player depth. It's a tough balancing act.

 

They're falling apart because they're deeply in debt (per ownership) after overspending what they could afford for two years and trading away their top position prospects for pieces to supplement what they had hoped would be long playoff runs. There is no team in baseball with more talent yet to play this season than Cleveland (meaning they haven't reached full-season ball yet).

[2wins87]

 

They're falling apart because they're deeply in debt (per ownership) after overspending what they could afford for two years and trading away their top position prospects for pieces to supplement what they had hoped would be long playoff runs. There is no team in baseball with more talent yet to play this season than Cleveland (meaning they haven't reached full-season ball yet).

 

This feels like a bit of an ownership lie.

 

According to Forbes they have a 9% debt to value ratio, which is perfectly manageable (less than the Twins).  It's hard to believe that they couldn't afford to spend $140 million on payroll again this year and for the forseeable future if they had the will to do so.  They actually reduced their debt from 10% to 9% in 2018 (again according to Forbes) with a payroll of $140 million, which given their valuations means that their debt level at the very most was constant in nominal terms, if it didn't drop by a little.

 

I just don't buy it.  Most of that money is just becoming profit.

[biggentleben]

 

This feels like a bit of an ownership lie.

 

According to Forbes they have a 9% debt to value ratio, which is perfectly manageable (less than the Twins).  It's hard to believe that they couldn't afford to spend $140 million on payroll again this year and for the forseeable future if they had the will to do so.  They actually reduced their debt from 10% to 9% in 2018 (again according to Forbes) with a payroll of $140 million, which given their valuations means that their debt level at the very most was constant in nominal terms, if it didn't drop by a little.

 

I just don't buy it.  Most of that money is just becoming profit.

 

While I don't disagree, there is a reason that they made their pitching available for a spell this offseason and did not head into the free agent market virtually at all to fill their outfield holes.

[Mike Sixel]

 

While I don't disagree, there is a reason that they made their pitching available for a spell this offseason and did not head into the free agent market virtually at all to fill their outfield holes.

 

they value profit over wins? That's my guess. 

[DocBauer]

Just being completely honest, I pay ZERO attention the MLB draft until about the week before. I do so for a couple of reasons. Chief amongst them is early speculation is lost until season's become completed. HS and college, both, each year see so much fluctuation except for the cream of the crop. The second reason is, let's be honest, the baseball draft is the biggest crapshoot of all professional sports.

 

So I let the season play out, and then I look at Baseball America, reports here on TD, and various other sites to see how things play out. Being an ardent fan of the milb system does not make me an expert. Hats off to those who follow months of speculation leading up to the draft.

 

My apologies to Andrew for all his hard work and posts as to various prospect lists, but I didn't read any of them, to this point, until he posted his 11-20 list.

 

I absolutely believe this FO will select what they believe to be the best overall player available at 13. Especially in a year where we probably don't have the financial cache to play the over/under slot game.

 

When I read various reports and lists, including Andrew's, what I see are some very, very intriguing possibilities. I am very interested in Langeliers from Baylor. Catcher is such an important position, and so hard to find. We made a huge move last season there, but can you have enough good catchers in your system?

 

But what I see and read most is a "down" year for pitching, but a large group of guys with questionable floor marks and high ceilings. Several of whom, around that 13th pick, would be available. I fully understand and generally agree with taking the best player available. But when I see a quality ML team with financial flexibility to prolong success, and one of the best and deepest farm systems in the game, and several high upside arms available...I am really, really hoping the FO will trust in potential, analytics, new coaches and approach, Wes Johnson, and pick the best potential arm they see, whether it be Rutledge, Malone, Kirby, Manoah, Thompson, Espino, etc.

 

We may strike out on the pick. But there enough high ceiling arms here to sort through that we are not talking about a RP conversion option like Jay. (No disrespect intended), to take a shot on high upside.

 

Blowing the 1st pick in this draft will do nothing to decimate the system. But isn't this the perfect draft spot and season to trust in your evaluations and pick the best upside arm available?

[gunnarthor]

New mock from pipeline - has the Twins taking a HS third baseman.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-on-may-31?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

[gunnarthor]

https://www.mlb.com/news/previewing-twins-2019-draft?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

And an article on the Twins draft focus.

[AlwaysinModeration]

What happened to Caleb Stewart? Hope the Twins can get him as a potential buy low guy who tumbled.

[biggentleben]

 

What happened to Caleb Stewart? Hope the Twins can get him as a potential buy low guy who tumbled.

 

I'm assuming you mean Carter Stewart. He signed with Japan and won't be drafted.

 

Crazy you bring up Caleb Stewart as one of the guys who really helped me learn what to look for on video scouted former University of Kentucky outfielder Caleb Stewart and used video of him when we were talking about games he saw in person versus what the video showed. I was extremely surprised that there was another guy of the same name in this year's draft!

[biggentleben]

 

New mock from pipeline - has the Twins taking a HS third baseman.

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-on-may-31?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

That would be an interesting pick. I've wondered on the Twins and Brett Baty, but from all accounts, they've not taken an interest, in large part due to his age.

[AlwaysinModeration]

I'm assuming you mean Carter Stewart. He signed with Japan and won't be drafted.

 

Crazy you bring up Caleb Stewart as one of the guys who really helped me learn what to look for on video scouted former University of Kentucky outfielder Caleb Stewart and used video of him when we were talking about games he saw in person versus what the video showed. I was extremely surprised that there was another guy of the same name in this year's draft!

Thanks—I literally just saw a bit on him going to Japan on MLB trade Rumors. I did meanCarter Stewart, just forgot the name. Funny that I remembered someone you knew instead.

[dbminn]

Getting impact players out of pick 1-8 to the end of the 1st round is a crap shoot no matter the position. I looked through Baseball Reference and looked at current WAR. I tried to keep the bottom end of WAR or number of players consistent for each year.

 

Starting pitchers followed by position players and each player's Draft Position:

 

2015

1-24 Walker Buehler

1-28 Mike Soroka

 

1-9 Ian Happ

1-41 Austin Riley

 

2014

1-8 Kyle Freeland

1-34 Jack Flaherty

 

1-10 Michael Conforto

1-13 Trea Turner

1-25 Matt Chapman

 

2013

1-34 Sean Manea

1-39 Cory Knebel

 

1-9 Austin Meadows

1-17 Tim Anderson

1-32 Aaron Judge

 

 

2012

1-16 Lucas Giolito

1-19 Michael Wacha

1-22 Marcus Stroman

1-32 Jose Berrios

1-41 Lance McCullers, Jr

 

1-11 Addison Russell

1-38 Mitch Hanniger

1-39 Joey Gallo

1-47 Matt Olson

 

2011

1-14 Jose Fernandez

1-18 Sonny Gray

1-52 Blake Snell

 

1-9 Javy Baez

1-11 George Springer

1-45 Trevor Story

 

 

2010

1-13 Chris Sale

1-38 Noah Syndergaard

 

1-12 Yasmani Grandal

1-23 Christian Yelich

 

I agree pitchers are riskier bets but it's not as bad as some think. There are a lot of misses in the 1st round.

[Mike Sixel]

https://community.fangraphs.com/success-rate-of-mlb-first-round-draft-picks-by-slot/

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-mlb-draftees-make-it-to-the-majors/

 

I wouldn't say "crapshoot"....