Flashing Back to 2014

[jimbo92107]

What really sucks is that all these guys were rated as solid starters as a floor, major stars as a ceiling. Especially Kohl Stewart, throwing mlb upper level heat under 20. WTF happened to him?? Did he have TJ surgery? A drop-off from mid- to high-90's down to low 90's is not supposed to happen to a kid that is growing bigger, stronger, and improving his mechanics. Did they push him too hard early on? I do seem to recall reading about "shoulder problems" at one point. Does he have a torn labrum or something? If so, why hasn't he had surgery to repair it?

 

On the other hand, we should all concede that randomness does not guarantee an even spread of good breaks and bad ones. It is possible for a scouting department to make perfectly explainable picks, and just be unlucky. For every one of these picks there were numerous scouts from other teams that regarded them as at least good picks. Or am I wrong about that? Were there scouts saying, "Don't pick Sano, he looks like he'll have attitude problems," or "Don't pick Stewart, he's throwing too hard, too early." I don't think so. 

[Mike Sixel]

Tyler Jay is the one I can't figure out......like, really can't figure out how the scouting was so wrong, even as a RP.....

[jkcarew]

FWIW, I'm still not ready to put Stewart in the same category with Jay.  I also think the Stewart pick was more 'consensus' than was the Jay pick.  Real time, more analysts openly questioned the Jay pick than the Stewart pick (aside from those worried that Stewart would choose football).

 

Stewart's last start at Rochester, he threw 5 consecutive clean innings, then was charged with 4 ER in his sixth inning of work.  His BB% is down this year and his K% is up this year (although not so much since the promotion to Rochester).  But his over-all numbers at Rochester are not horrible.  Stewart is a 23-year old starter at the AAA level that also represents significant theoretical potential as a RP who can max-effort and eliminate his fringe pitches.   Meanwhile, Jay struggles to match Stewart's numbers, despite being a year older, serving as a RP, and pitching at a lower level.

[old nurse]

 

so it is all random, and they are wasting money on scouts? I'm not sure I understand your point....but that's basically what you just typed.

In trying to refind the article for Bighat  on just how inaccurate rankings are to success I came across something written in 2016 about how the Yankees are one of the worst organizations in baseball in part because they have no homegrown talent. Severino has in the majors, but Yankee draftees Judge, Montgomery, Andujar, Sanchez and Bird would give one pause as to what this expert was looking at.

You can check out how many top 20 prospect lists they made.

 

In terms of your comment. . I do not know how one goes from a statement that there is a bust rate of 50 % to the system is random and why are then making it about the team scouting budget.   That is quite the leap. That is an Evel Kneivel leap over the Snake River leap.  Baseball media and team scouting have ZERO  correlation.  Since you did not read the article, go back and read it.  The bust rate for 80-100 rated prospects  is way higher than 50 %. That does not make success random. That does mean the systems in place for ranking prospects has little meaning on an individual basis.

[Riverbrian]

 

Pretty much this.  With everything...context.

 

It's also a good reminder that 'quantity over quality' approach to prospects (say at a given position, etc.) is not always the stupidest idea in the world.  Simply because we know the gauge used to measure quality can never be perfectly calibrated.

 

You have to get through a series of filters. 

 

Flooding the filters is a solid strategy.