Article: Top Twins Prospects Are Performing

[Thrylos]

 

I was hoping what you were hearing might be right, even though my contacts were telling me pretty much the opposite...

 

Wander Javier is out for the year and is undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

 

http://www.startribune.com/top-twins-prospect-wander-javier-out-for-the-season/482335492/

 

Yes this sucks...

 

[Thrylos]

Re: Rooker:  This season so far has been a learning season for him.  Here is a split that describes the best his season:

 

.379/.486/.483 6 BB 7 K (35 PA) when ahead on the count
.108/.108/.135 0 BB 17 K (37 PA)  when behind

 

He chases garbage that pitchers are throwing once they get ahead.  This is AA.  Hugh jump from A+.  So he either needs to let it go and not chase junk (strike 3 looking is the same as strike 3 swinging) or start swinging early in the count.

Just a hiccup.  Not concerned at all.  He will be fine in another month or so.

Edited May 11, 2018 by Thrylos

[Mr. Brooks]

I was hoping what you were hearing might be right, even though my contacts were telling me pretty much the opposite...

 

Wander Javier is out for the year and is undergoing Tommy John surgery.

 

http://www.startribune.com/top-twins-prospect-wander-javier-out-for-the-season/482335492/

I don't pay as close attention to other teams milb systems, is it normal for an organization to have 3 top position player prospects need TJ surgery?

This is starting to seem like a trend in this system, unfortunately.

Is there something they do differently that is causing this?

[Seth Stohs]

 

I don't pay as close attention to other teams milb systems, is it normal for an organization to have 3 top position player prospects need TJ surgery?
This is starting to seem like a trend in this system, unfortunately.
Is there something they do differently that is causing this?

 

I don't know... but this one is a non-throwing shoulder surgery... stinks, for sure. 

 

And no, they don't do anything differently. 

[DocBauer]

In his first 19 games (72 PA), he didn't walk once and struck out 33% of the time.

 

In his last ten games, his walk rate has been 13% and his k-rate is 25% in 44 PA. It's just too early to worry. He's making adjustments but we won't see those in his overall line for a bit. It'll take time but he's on progress. It wasn't realistic to expect him to light up AA pitching as soon as he saw it. What's important is if he can make the adjustments.

I think this is important. Half a season of high A ball, if that, in his very first pro season, and an immediate jump to AA the next season, and we're worried about a slow start and now showing improvement? Can we give him half a season at least before hitting a panic button?

[Doctor Wu]

 

I was hoping what you were hearing might be right, even though my contacts were telling me pretty much the opposite...

 

Wander Javier is out for the year and is undergoing Tommy John surgery. 

 

http://www.startribune.com/top-twins-prospect-wander-javier-out-for-the-season/482335492/

Man, how did I miss that news about Wander Javier?! Asleep at the Wheel again! Very sorry to hear that. But hopefully, like Kirilloff, he can come back in another year and start putting up impressive numbers again.

[twins1095]

 

Baddoo hasn't been swinging and missing as much as you might think.  He is an extreme example of the approach that prefers going as deep as possible in the count...looking for specific pitches/mistakes.  Results in a high rate of walks, and also strike-outs that may only involve one swinging strike, if that.  His OBP is basically 400.  So, lets not mess with him radically right now.  I think as he continues to progress...basically learns where/when more aggressiveness pays off...we could have a good one with him.

 

And then there's Rooker.  While I don't think 23 is young for a AA player that's supposed to be considered a real prospect, I do think it's a huge adjustment to be hitting with the real bat against AA prospects only 11 months removed from SEC play.  But forget the strike-outs and (lack of) walks...he's only hit 1 home run in his first 100 plate appearances.  That seems really weird.

 

 

I'm worried about Rooker, but the sample size is small and I'm not sure he's been quite as bad as the numbers appear--he was 0-11 with 7 K's his first 3 games, but has been marginally better since then.  He's realistically within a couple week hot streak away of salvaging a respectable season.

 

In those 31 games his slash is .240/.280/.670 and his strikeout to walk ratio is 33/6 K/BB.  A strikeout a game is a little on the high side, but it feels a lot better than 40 in 34.  Further, a 162 game pace for those 31 games would give him a game production projection of about 65 runs - 37 2B - 5 3B - 16 HR - 65 rbi.

 

I'm most concerned about the drop in walk rate, I doubt the power is gone and he's hitting a decent number of extra base hits, but I'm not sure where the approach went.  Hopefully he has a big second half.  

 

___________________________________________________________________

 

I like Badoo's approach, I'm generally a fan of that kind of approach.  I think there's value in making pitchers work, getting them deep into counts, and getting more opportunities for a mistake instead of swinging at a pitch that isn't the pitch you're looking for when you've got strikes to play with.  High strikeout totals can be worrying, but context matters--if the strikeout totals are a result of going deep into counts and he strikes out after 5-6-7 pitches I'm fine with that.  More often than not those kind of ABs are leading to a walk, a hitter's pitch to hit, and there's value to making a pitcher throw a lot of pitchers both for your own ability to hit a pitcher, but also for your teammates. So, not all strikeouts are created equal. 

 

I'm wondering where the extra base hit power has gone.  For a guy that young and raw I'm not expecting a ton of home runs even if the projection is there to add some as he matures, but it would be nice to see him barrelling more balls and putting them in the gaps.  After having 19 2Bs, 5 3Bs, and 4 HRs in just 53 games at Rookie Ball...there's some more there. 

 

He's getting on base a ton 22.6% walk rate and scoring almost a run per game and on pace to steal 40+ bases.    Crazy that almost 54% of his plate appearances right now are ending in a strikeout or a walk.  I'm sure that will normalize somewhere less to the extremes on both cases, but he's now drawn 82 walks in 118 games (16.6 BB%)--the eye is there.  I don't think you can coach a guy out of that really if he likes to take pitches and work counts.

 

Cool player. Excited to see what happens.