Article: Where Are We Now? (152 Down, 10 To Go)

[Doomtints]

The problem with those playoff percentages is they have never been quality checked, are based on dubious assumptions, and they change daily which makes them wrong 161 game days out of the year.

 

We don't need percentages. The Angels/Rangers need 5-game swings to happen with 9/10 games left. This isn't likely. Is it 75% unlikely? Don't know, don't care. If someone tells you that they DO know, run away.

 

Whether or not we have these percentages, we are still evaluating the outcome day-to-day. The percentages do nothing for us. They don't help us and they are without meaning.

Edited September 22, 2017 by Doomtints

[drjim]

 

Texas the bigger threat right now.

 

I wish the Angels and Texas played each other but they don't.

 

Gotta hope the A's got some gamers on their team and don't fold, unlike the Tigers.

 

Yup. Rangers will finish ahead of the Angels. Thank goodness for the Tigers.

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The problem with those playoff percentages is they have never been quality checked, are based on dubious assumptions, and they change daily which makes them wrong 161 game days out of the year.

 

We don't need percentages. The Angels/Rangers need 5-game swings to happen with 9/10 games left. This isn't likely. Is it 75% unlikely? Don't know, don't care. If someone tells you that they DO know, run away.

 

Whether or not we have these percentages, we are still evaluating the outcome day-to-day. The percentages do nothing for us. They don't help us and they are without meaning.

 

No one is claiming the probability percentages are perfect.  But "this isn't likely" could mean 51% or 75% of 99%.  Some of us enjoy seeing probability in less binary terms, grayscale instead of simple black and white.  (Imagine the killjoy who says with every plate appearance, "a base hit isn't likely here" )  Feel free to disregard, if you prefer.

 

FWIW, Fangraphs "coin flip mode" is a decent sanity check with so few games remaining -- since game outcomes are indeed binary, if you simply flipped a coin for the results, what are the odds you could make up a deficit of X flips with Y flips remaining?  Twins are at 75.5% there right now.  Obviously no one is flipping coins and we will all watch them play the games, but I enjoy seeing that 75% as opposed to just "this is/isn't likely", which could be equally applied to a variety of deficits right now.

 

Also, semantics, but describing a 2.5 game deficit as a "5 game swing with 9/10 remaining" sounds like you are double-counting the numerator (5 combined Angels/Rangers wins and Twins losses) and only single-counting the denominator (since each team has 9/10 games remaining, so there are actually 19/20 events to make up the "5 game swing").

 

I tend to think of days, so the Angels/Rangers need to make up ground on the Twins for +3 days over the next 10.

Edited September 22, 2017 by spycake

[tvagle]

Just one wanna-be mathematicians view on all the probability...percent chance...Games Back

 

If you want a true measuring stick you can go by with ZERO chance for error it's the Magic Number

(blatant self-promoting link to other topic) http://twinsdaily.com/topic/27502-its-never-too-early-for-magic-number/

 

The whole if's and but's...candy and nuts deal is just to uplifting or heart-saddening

 

With 100% guaranteed results if the Twins win 8 of 9 they are in (can even lose 1 and still make it)

For every game the Rangers and Angels lose we can lose another one

 

Simple...straight forward and easy..almost like Magic 

 

Here are the current Magic Numbers for the Twins to Eliminate each team

 

Angels - 8

Rangers - 8

Royals - 7

Mariners - 5

Orioles - 4

[Mike Sixel]

 

The problem with those playoff percentages is they have never been quality checked, are based on dubious assumptions, and they change daily which makes them wrong 161 game days out of the year.

 

We don't need percentages. The Angels/Rangers need 5-game swings to happen with 9/10 games left. This isn't likely. Is it 75% unlikely? Don't know, don't care. If someone tells you that they DO know, run away.

 

Whether or not we have these percentages, we are still evaluating the outcome day-to-day. The percentages do nothing for us. They don't help us and they are without meaning.

 

I'm confused by the statement that they must be wrong because they change as new information comes, and as the ability close the gap decreases. If they didn't change every day, we'd have a really bad problem....those are odds, nothing more or less than probability estimates. help me understand your statements. How are they w/o meaning, exactly? 

[Thegrin]

If a team wins half its game, that equals 81 wins.  If they win 82 games they are only 1 win over 50%.

No matter what number of games is needed to get in the playoffs, the clubs will still be mediocre.

Of course the Twins could get in the playoffs and beat the Yankees, They will be a celebrated club in Twins History.  Its all a matter of perspective.  

[gil4]

It has been a good night for sccoreboard watching.  The Twins took care of business, Houston shut out the Angels 3-0, Chicago beat KC 7-6 after a wild 9-2-3-6 DP to end the game, and Oakland has just finished off Texas, 4-1.  

 

The magic number is now 6, with 5 games remaining against what's left of the Tigers.  The series against the Indians might be survivable.

 

Edit:  It was a 9-2-4-6 DP.  The second baseman was covering first after the throw home from RF. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

With ten games to play in a 162 game season, it’s as if the Twins have a one-run lead going into the bottom of the ninth inning of their season. Now it’s time to bring in the closer and finish the season strong.

 

Great comparison. Hard to believe the lead was only 1.5 games lead a week ago.

 

With the magic number now at one, the Twins have retired the first two batters and the Angels are down to their last strike. The crowd is on its feet!

Edited September 28, 2017 by Hosken Bombo Disco