Stick a fork in the 2017 Twins

[old nurse]

 

What have they done in any meaningful way to improve any of the teams that will take the field over the next 4 years?

26 years and counting since they sniffed a World Series berth, the org is still 80% the old regime, and we still have the same terrible president of the team (DSP) and the same terrible ownership family (Pohlads)

The ownership of the team has been the same for long enough for people to get over it.  Quixotic to complain about it.

 

Dave St. Peter appears to leave the operation of talent to the baseball operation people.  Between the ownership  and his position about the only direct impact they have is setting a budget and signing off on large contracts. The onlt time that it has been public that they did not  want to spend a lt of money is after the 2011 season. It appeared the canned Smith because spending heavily on free agents was his solution to the 2011 mess.

 

What has the FO done? The starting point to asses is what did they have to work with when they took over.  Tradeable major league assets  that the team had a replacement for was, and still is Dozier.  DeLeon was about all the Dodgers were going to give up for a 2b. Their record currently says they guessed right. Time will tell if they FO was right on passing on that. Right now they look like they made the right decision.Prospects that still qualify for ROY. Mejia, Chagois,  AAA prospects that jump out as having potential?  Palka, Garver and Reed show up on prospect lists.  A projected back end starter, projected back up catcher, relievers and AAAA hitters are not going to fetch much in a trade market  Not much value to trade to get an immediate asset. Free agents. Castro vs Weiters vs Ramos. All are hitting about the same. Ramos has been injured. most of the year.  The reliever free agent market is a crapshoot. They did not guess horribly wrong, with their major league contract, the did not get lucky, either.  They chose to ride out Rosario's Polanco's development rather than trading them  for a fringe players. Time will tell if that was the right decision.  They did not trade prospects for players that did not work out. They did not snookered anyone to take a bad asset over the winter and turn it into something useful. I suppose you can rip them for that  They have not been robbed either.

No immediate gratification.

Did they snooker anyone over the winter into

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

just curious, what are the odds they win 60-70% of their games the rest of the way? Because that's what they need to do to get to 86-87 wins.

By Fangraphs "coin flip mode" (not involving stats or projections), the Twins are estimated to finish with 80 wins, and have a 7.1% chance at the division, and 11.6% chance at the wild card, for a total 18.8% chance at the playoffs.

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/coolstandings.aspx?type=0&lg=div&date=current

 

Season-to-date stats mode drops us to around 77.4 wins, and divison/wildcard/playoff odds of 2.5%, 7.7%, 10.2%, respectively.

 

Fangraphs projection mode keeps their win total about the same as season-to-date stats mode, but drops their odds further, primarily because it boosts Cleveland and maybe a few other teams.

[DaveW]

 

 But they *did* try to move their only truly valuable (and tradable) asset for starting pitching. 

"Hey we tried!"- The Story of the 1992-2017 Minnesota Twins

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

"Hey we tried!"- The Story of the 1992-2017 Minnesota Twins

Short of giving up Dozier straight-up for De Leon, I don't make that move if I'm the Dodgers.

 

And if I'm the Twins, I don't move Dozier straight-up for De Leon.

 

After the Forsythe trade, it made a lot of sense why that deal didn't happen. It's unfortunate that 2B is such a strong position among contenders right now. Once the Dodgers non-deal played out, there was nowhere else to go.

[old nurse]

 

 

just curious, what are the odds they win 60-70% of their games the rest of the way? Because that's what they need to do to get to 86-87 wins.

Depends on how much Oakland, San Diego and Detroit sell in the next few days.  Depends if Toronto or Texas sells down assets. If you are facing 4-5 essentially development teams, especially in September, a team should win 70% of those games.  If you think that Santana, Berrios, Mejia and Garcia can keep you in games and the bullpen isn't toasted from use the team has a shot. If your world view is to look at the world as darkly as possible then the Twins have a shot at the 5th pick in the draft. Either can happen.  It is not unreasonable to think they can win 60% of their games.  70% would be possible various members of the team start hitting, Busenitz and Hildenberger are the real thing and Colon uses the magic elixir he used last year and while in Oakland to become the winningest pitcher in Domincan history by win totals (Marichal and Martinez will always be the better pitchers)

[Mike Sixel]

 

Short of giving up Dozier straight-up for De Leon, I don't make that move if I'm the Dodgers.

 

And if I'm the Twins, I don't move Dozier straight-up for De Leon.

 

After the Forsythe trade, it made a lot of sense why that deal didn't happen. It's unfortunate that 2B is such a strong position among contenders right now. Once the Dodgers non-deal played out, there was nowhere else to go.

 

There were no FAs, SP or RP? 

 

There were no other trades that could be made? They were literally just stuck with this pitching staff?

 

What is different this off season?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Depends on how much Oakland, San Diego and Detroit sell in the next few days.  Depends if Toronto or Texas sells down assets. If you are facing 4-5 essentially development teams, especially in September, a team should win 70% of those games.  If you think that Santana, Berrios, Mejia and Garcia can keep you in games and the bullpen isn't toasted from use the team has a shot. If your world view is to look at the world as darkly as possible then the Twins have a shot at the 5th pick in the draft. Either can happen.  It is not unreasonable to think they can win 60% of their games.  70% would be possible various members of the team start hitting, Busenitz and Hildenberger are the real thing and Colon uses the magic elixir he used last year and while in Oakland to become the winningest pitcher in Domincan history by win totals (Marichal and Martinez will always be the better pitchers)

 

does any team win 70% of their September games? And, they have to do that in August also.

 

It's my world view to be realistic, not "as darkly as possible", but hey, go for it.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

There were no FAs, SP or RP? 

 

There were no other trades that could be made? They were literally just stuck with this pitching staff?

 

What is different this off season?

You know we agree about relief free agents. Neither of us liked what they did this offseason. The only thing at risk was money on a team with a payroll that's already too low.

 

But I had no issues with them refusing to trade prospects going into the season. If you entered their position, would you rely on the backbone of the old organization to find both the prospects you want in trade and the prospects you're willing to trade? I wouldn't. I'd sit it out, institute the framework of an organization I trust to be put in place, and then consider which prospects can/should be dealt.

 

Which is why I give them something of a pass last offseason but will not do the same this offseason.

[Mike Sixel]

 

You know we agree about relief free agents. Neither of us liked what they did this offseason. The only thing at risk was money on a team with a payroll that's already too low.

 

But I had no issues with them refusing to trade prospects going into the season. If you entered their position, would you rely on the backbone of the old organization to find both the prospects you want in trade and the prospects you're willing to trade? I wouldn't. I'd sit it out, institute the framework of an organization I trust to be put in place, and then consider which prospects can/should be dealt.

 

Which is why I give them something of a pass last offseason but will not do the same this offseason.

 

That's rational and fair. 

[old nurse]

 

No one asked for instant gratification. Dave and I are wondering what they've done for the long term health of the pitching. Gimenez isn't helping with the long term, maybe Castro, but he has at most 2 more years of starting. They added which long term assets as pitchers that will help in the next 2 years or so? 

Gimmenez wasn't signed to anything long term. Thus far, this season as a free agent which catcher has performed better than Castro that was available?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Gimmenez wasn't signed to anything long term. Thus far, this season as a free agent which catcher has performed better than Castro that was available?

 

Not sure I understand the question. Yes, Castro maybe helps the pitching in the medium term. That's it, right? That's the one move made to improve the pitching. I mentioned Gimenez because earlier someone posted that the Twins signed two catchers to help the pitching long term....

[bluechipper]

I'm not ready to stick a fork in them yet. Unless they lose 2 of 3 this weekend. Then I'm done

 

Just had a really tough schedule, and 13 of the next 33 games are against the A's, Padres, and White Sox. Time to make one more push.

[old nurse]

 

does any team win 70% of their September games? And, they have to do that in August also.

 

It's my world view to be realistic, not "as darkly as possible", but hey, go for it.

Call your view what you want.

The Dodgers right now have a .691 winning percentage. Historically it has been done.  The Twins came back from 12.5 down one year not so long ago. I do not know what their win percentage was. It would have to be high. It was not like they had a group of shut down starters but I do believe it was a better bullpen.

For the Twins to win 60% the starting rotation has to come through. That is a statement of a parameter for something to happen.  For the Twins to hit .700 the relief pitching would have to step up. Grossman  would need to hit like he did in April and May, Dozier would have to have a strong end of season, like he has done. It wouldn't hurt for Mauer to have a hot streak, like he has done.  That is an objective statement of what it would take for .700 ball. Not out of the realm of possible. Neither is getting the 5th pick in the draft out of the realm of possible.  To deny either is unrealistic.

[jimmer]

11 years ago (2006) when the Twins came back from being 10.5 in mid august, their winning percentage in mid-august sat at a hair under 60. They finished with a winnning percentage a hair under 60. Basically, they finished the season and made up 10.5 games winning the same percentage of games they had won when down 10.5 games. They didnt surge, they didnt make a run inconsistent with their play when they were down 10.5, they just kept winning at the same pace.

 

Going from winning 48% in the first 4 months to winning 70% the last two doesnt seem any kind of realistic.

 

Of course its mathematically possible, but saying since the Dodgers can win at the level so we can too discounts the talent level each team possesses. No to mention discounting the huge difference in talent between this years Twins and the 2006 Twins team.

[howieramone2]

It was a fun few months, time to sell the few sellable assets we have.

 

Falvey has failed us in his first season, this rotation and bullpen are embarrassing.

 

Hopefully can get some arms for the future.

It was a fun few months, time to sell the few sellable assets we have.

 

Falvey has failed us in his first season, this rotation and bullpen are embarrassing.

 

Hopefully can get some arms for the future.

Falvey used the first half season to evaluate what we have, yet we are in the hunt for the second time in three seasons. We have all kinds of arms from our 2012, 2013, and 2014 drafts just about major league ready. Great job by the new regime.

[howieramone2]

Has the front office improved the 2017 team or 2018-2022 teams in any meaningful way this year beyond signing Castro? (Who is a below average overall catcher anyways)

Yes they have. Did you get a chance to review the 2017 draft? Not unlike the Astros draft of 2012.

[Mike Sixel]

 

Yes they have. Did you get a chance to review the 2017 draft? Not unlike the Astros draft of 2012.

 

every team gets to draft. Are you saying this draft was so awesome that the old FO could not have pulled it off, or that you couldn't?

 

And, um, no one is rating this draft like the 2012 draft for the Astros. So you must know something others don't.

[Guest]

It's their job to improve the team. They didn't. No one on this board asked or instant gratification, we asked for progress. What progress has been made? The draft doesn't count, imo, as every team gets to draft players every year.....so, what have they done?

 

Because, lots of people here are saying they've done stuff to make the pitching better long term, and I don't see it. I'm asking those people, what have they done to make the pitching staff better long term.

To rebuild a team requires a lot more than flipping over the roster, which, by the way, has been shown not to work time after time, e.g., Padres. In fact, based on other turnarounds and comments from other management teams, getting players comes last. Changing the internal workings of the system, such as coaching, training methods, health, scouting and game preparation, all must come first. If you put new players into the old processes, outcomes would not be much better. Although getting new players is most easily visible, you have no or little idea what management has done in these areas. Some things have been disclosed, but most managements don't talk about these things in great detail. However, you shouldn't confuse your lack of knowledge of actions as being the same thing as lack of action.

 

The negative comments in this thread seem to center around not getting a bunch of top flight major league players, particularly pitchers, over the winter, without acknowledging the constraints that were placed on management, the value of not doing a Padres-style trade frenzy, and the lack of naming the actual pitchers that they should have obtained, even in hindsight. TwinsDaily has a free agent tracker. Instead of just complaining, go on it and tell us which deals you would have signed, that you knew at the time were good deals. Greg Holland turned out to be a good deal, but all everyone saw was risk, and Mike Dunn has done OK, but nobody was paying attention to him. Who would you have signed?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

And, um, no one is rating this draft like the 2012 draft for the Astros. So you must know something others don't.

I'm sure the poster is referring to going underslot with the top pick, and going overslot later.  But we didn't go underslot on Lewis nearly as much as the Astros did on Correa, and ultimately we didn't even need the Lewis savings to sign Enlow.  And the underslot/overslot thing by itself isn't particularly unique or special anymore, what matters is what players you get and how you develop them, and obviously much remains to be seen in that regard.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To rebuild a team requires a lot more than flipping over the roster, which, by the way, has been shown not to work time after time, e.g., Padres. In fact, based on other turnarounds and comments from other management teams, getting players comes last. Changing the internal workings of the system, such as coaching, training methods, health, scouting and game preparation, all must come first. If you put new players into the old processes, outcomes would not be much better. Although getting new players is most easily visible, you have no or little idea what management has done in these areas. Some things have been disclosed, but most managements don't talk about these things in great detail. However, you shouldn't confuse your lack of knowledge of actions as being the same thing as lack of action.

The negative comments in this thread seem to center around not getting a bunch of top flight major league players, particularly pitchers, over the winter, without acknowledging the constraints that were placed on management, the value of not doing a Padres-style trade frenzy, and the lack of naming the actual pitchers that they should have obtained, even in hindsight. TwinsDaily has a free agent tracker. Instead of just complaining, go on it and tell us which deals you would have signed, that you knew at the time were good deals. Greg Holland turned out to be a good deal, but all everyone saw was risk, and Mike Dunn has done OK, but nobody was paying attention to him. Who would you have signed?

 

Again, no one called for "a bunch" of top flight players. How about 1?

[Guest]

Again, no one called for "a bunch" of top flight players. How about 1?

Name your one. Who would you have signed that would have made an appreciable difference for this year's team and been a benefit for 2018? Kenley Jansen? Anyone else?

[Otto von Ballpark]

 

The negative comments in this thread seem to center around not getting a bunch of top flight major league players, particularly pitchers, over the winter, without acknowledging the constraints that were placed on management, the value of not doing a Padres-style trade frenzy, and the lack of naming the actual pitchers that they should have obtained, even in hindsight. TwinsDaily has a free agent tracker. Instead of just complaining, go on it and tell us which deals you would have signed, that you knew at the time were good deals. Greg Holland turned out to be a good deal, but all everyone saw was risk, and Mike Dunn has done OK, but nobody was paying attention to him. Who would you have signed?

Plenty of people have named Holland, and not just in hindsight.  You just choose not to accept it for some reason ($7 mil was clearly not too much risk for this team, given our pen construction, our budget, his performance history, and recent returns on high end relievers, IMO).

[Mike Sixel]

 

Name your one. Who would you have signed that would have made an appreciable difference for this year's team and been a benefit for 2018? Kenley Jansen? Anyone else?

 

It's not my job to fix the Twins. It's actually a logical fallacy to require me to do so. If people think there was zero opportunity to improve the Twins in the off season, they can think that. I refuse to believe that this FO could do nothing to help in 2018. I could be wrong, it might have literally been impossible. I hope we aren't reading it was literally impossible after the next off season also.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

every team gets to draft. Are you saying this draft was so awesome that the old FO could not have pulled it off, or that you couldn't?

 

And, um, no one is rating this draft like the 2012 draft for the Astros. So you must know something others don't.

To be fair, no one ranked the 2012 Astros draft to perform as well as it has back in 2012.

[drjim]

It's not my job to fix the Twins. It's actually a logical fallacy to require me to do so. If people think there was zero opportunity to improve the Twins in the off season, they can think that. I refuse to believe that this FO could do nothing to help in 2018. I could be wrong, it might have literally been impossible. I hope we aren't reading it was literally impossible after the next off season also.

I personally think the Twins are in a better place organizationally long term by doing little this past offseason. The alternatives were signing mediocre starters to multiyear deals or making a bad trade. Glad they passed on both. And the other upshot is younger starters Berrios and especially Mejia got more reps than they otherwise would have.

 

They erred in not being more ambitious in one year deals for relievers, but that would have had minimal long term organizational impact.

 

They have also shook out some of the position players, giving them an idea of what surpluses they may be able to trade from going forward.

[Mike Sixel]

 

To be fair, no one ranked the 2012 Astros draft to perform as well as it has back in 2012.

 

that's true. Carlos has been much better than anyone predicted. Let's hope Lewis is as well.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I personally think the Twins are in a better place organizationally long term by doing little this past offseason. The alternatives were signing mediocre starters to multiyear deals or making a bad trade. Glad they passed on both. And the other upshot is younger starters Berrios and especially Mejia got more reps than they otherwise would have.

They erred in not being more ambitious in one year deals for relievers, but that would have had minimal long term organizational impact.

They have also shook out some of the position players, giving them an idea of what surpluses they may be able to trade from going forward.

 

and I think that's a fair stance. They have enough data now, I am hoping they don't do nothing again this off season (in fairness, Castro isn't nothing, but that's a pretty small move, and really only good for 1-2 years probably). 

[Otto von Ballpark]

I'm not passing any final judgement on the FO, of course, and I certainly am not co-signing on to any statement of Dave's.

 

But I do think we are in a position right now that highlights some of the FO criticism so far.   We made very few additions/changes last winter, and now we are in a position where we're not quite good enough to compete AND we don't have any new assets to cash in.  The former is understandable -- we lost 103 games, we were never particularly likely to compete down the stretch in 2017 -- but the latter is puzzling.  Why bother with Breslow and Belisle?  They were half-measures (at best), the kind of thing the old FO would trot out somewhat aimlessly.

 

Obviously it's still early in the game for them, we'll know a whole lot more by next spring, but it's hard to look at 2017 and not see some opportunity wasted.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Why bother with Breslow and Belisle?  They were half-measures (at best).

I don't have a lot to complain about with the new front office but this is easily my biggest gripe, one that isn't really up for debate, IMO.

[drjim]

and I think that's a fair stance. They have enough data now, I am hoping they don't do nothing again this off season (in fairness, Castro isn't nothing, but that's a pretty small move, and really only good for 1-2 years probably).

I also think they have a significantly different context this offseason. Twins will have emerging talent and 3 other teams in the division will basically be out of it before opening day.

 

It will make sense to spend assets for shorter term gain.