Tyler Jay to Undergo Season-Ending Surgery for Thoracic Outlet Syndrome

[laloesch]

Good luck to him in his recovery. Those saying pretty much "never pick a pitcher", where do they come from if you don't pick them? And, if you say trade....who is trading away cost controlled pitchers?

Mike i was about to post the same thing.

 

Lessons learned.

 

One, draft a starting pitcher instead of a relief pitcher (if you want a starting pitcher). Don't try and ram a square peg into a round hole, almost never works out.

 

Two, All drafts are a crapshoot regardless of whether its a pitcher or a position player.

 

Three. There's absolutely nothing wrong with drafting "what you need" as long as it makes sense and you aren't passing up a top talent at another position. Understand your immediate deficiencies, what you have in abundance already and then decide.

 

Now some live and die by the phrase "draft the best player available regardless", but this does little to help a franchise so devoid of pitching talent. Drafting "toolsey infielders" and outfielders destined to be DH's that are YEARS and YEARS away from helping the major league squad at this stage of a rebuild is just crazy. Especially when there were plenty of good college starters available and high draft picks.

[Mr. Brooks]

Mike i was about to post the same thing.

 

Lessons learned.

 

One, draft a starting pitcher instead of a relief pitcher (if you want a starting pitcher). Don't try and ram a square peg into a round hole, almost never works out.

 

Two, All drafts are a crapshoot regardless of whether its a pitcher or a position player.

 

Three. There's absolutely nothing wrong with drafting "what you need" as long as it makes sense and you aren't passing up a top talent at another position. Understand your immediate deficiencies, what you have in abundance already and then decide.

 

Now some live and die by the phrase "draft the best player available regardless", but this does little to help a franchise so devoid of pitching talent. Drafting "toolsey infielders" and outfielders destined to be DH's that are YEARS and YEARS away from helping the major league squad at this stage of a rebuild is just crazy. Especially when there were plenty of good college starters available and high draft picks.

It's not a crapshoot.

If it was, they wouldn't devote millions of dollars scouting for the draft.

Something can have a really high failure rate and still be skill based.

[laloesch]

It's not a crapshoot.

If it was, they wouldn't devote millions of dollars scouting for the draft.

Something can have a really high failure rate and still be skill based.

I disagree. Spending millions on scouting improves the odds but it's still a crapshoot. Not every player turns out they way the scouts and GM hope. ie. Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Alex Wimmers, Shooter Hunt, Kyle Gibson, etc.

[jud6312]

Has anyone successfully returned from this surgery yet?

 

Richard likes to hold Gee and Hughes up as the poster boys for its success, but that's saying very little. 

 

The only other names I've found are Matt Harvey, Noah Lowry, Clay Dick, late career Josh Beckett, late career Chris Young, Tyson Ross.

 

Seems like some never make it back (Lowry), some have very moderate success (Young) and others are done, but appear to be delaying the inevitable (Hughes, Ross).

 

At this point, I think it best to not count on Tyler going forward. At least until he proves he's not the next Clayton Richard.

[nicksaviking]

Sorry for the young man.

 

The surgery for pitchers is very modern but surely the symptoms and diagnosis are not. I'd be interested in finding out which pitchers in the past had the same condition, and how it was treated, if at all.

[Mr. Brooks]

I disagree. Spending millions on scouting improves the odds but it's still a crapshoot. Not every player turns out they way the scouts and GM hope. ie. Kohl Stewart, Tyler Jay, Alex Wimmers, Shooter Hunt, Kyle Gibson, etc.

If you can improve the odds, even a little bit, then it's skill based and not a crapshoot.

Again, just because most picks bust, doesn't mean there is no skill involved.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Good luck to him in his recovery. Those saying pretty much "never pick a pitcher", where do they come from if you don't pick them? And, if you say trade....who is trading away cost controlled pitchers?

 

Clubs trade pitchers all the time. They don't typically trade young pitchers already in MLB - but so far as acquiring pitching prospects, that happens frequently. 

 

I'd take a pitcher in the top 5-10 picks if he was already a #3 starter on the day I draft him, with a good chance of winding up as a #1. So I'd take Strasburg, Price, etc. (there would be tough cases like Sale where opinions differed). Otherwise I want the most talented position player on the board. 

 

I'd get my pitching prospects every other avenue - any other draft slot, international, trades, etc. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Has anyone successfully returned from this surgery yet?

Let's put it this way, you would much much rather have Tommy John surgery on your elbow than to have a your first rib resectioned and removed cutting into the brachial plexus, cutting the scalenes and subclavius muscles.  The list is not good for recovery and returning to the player's old self.  I guess it's still better than a labrum or anterior capsule tear.

[snap4birds]

 

Let's put it this way, you would much much rather have Tommy John surgery on your elbow than to have a your first rib resectioned and removed cutting into the brachial plexus, cutting the scalenes and subclavius muscles.  The list is not good for recovery and returning to the player's old self.  I guess it's still better than a labrum or anterior capsule tear.

Reminds of the dreaded 'rotator cuff surgery' back in the 70's/80's.  It was the kiss of death for a pitcher.  Can't remember hearing of anyone having that surgery in the past 10 years....

[laloesch]

 

If you can improve the odds, even a little bit, then it's skill based and not a crapshoot.
Again, just because most picks bust, doesn't mean there is no skill involved.

 

Again.... I'm not saying there is no skill involved.  Just because you improve the odds through skill based scouting does not make it not a crapshoot. There is still the matter of luck and other factors which makes EVERY prospect a roll of the dice, hence a crapshoot.

[drivlikejehu]

 

Again.... I'm not saying there is no skill involved.  Just because you improve the odds through skill based scouting does not make it not a crapshoot. There is still the matter of luck and other factors which makes EVERY prospect a roll of the dice, hence a crapshoot.

 

Scouting is 0% crapshoot. All human decisions occur in a state of some uncertainty, otherwise there would be no need to make a decision (instead it would be obvious). The fact that there is uncertainty over player outcomes is irrelevant to whether evaluating prospects is a skill (which is it). 

[laloesch]

 

Scouting is 0% crapshoot. All human decisions occur in a state of some uncertainty, otherwise there would be no need to make a decision (instead it would be obvious). The fact that there is uncertainty over player outcomes is irrelevant to whether evaluating prospects is a skill (which is it). 

 

Really?  Are we talking about the same thing here?  

 

Per Webster dictionary.  Crapshoot -something (such as a business venture, insert team drafting baseball players) that has an unpredictable outcome.  Again this is Webster dictionary.

 

So you are saying that scouting is 100% predictable (keep in mind i never said % anything originally).  And that lower round picks are not a crapshoot?

 

[drivlikejehu]

 

Really?  Are we talking about the same thing here?  

 

Per Webster dictionary.  Crapshoot -something (such as a business venture, insert team drafting baseball players) that has an unpredictable outcome.  Again this is Webster dictionary.

 

So you are saying that scouting is 100% predictable (keep in mind i never said % anything originally).  And that lower round picks are not a crapshoot?

 

The game of craps (the origin of the word) does not involve skill. 

 

[jimbo92107]

 

Clubs trade pitchers all the time. They don't typically trade young pitchers already in MLB - but so far as acquiring pitching prospects, that happens frequently. 

 

I'd take a pitcher in the top 5-10 picks if he was already a #3 starter on the day I draft him, with a good chance of winding up as a #1. So I'd take Strasburg, Price, etc. (there would be tough cases like Sale where opinions differed). Otherwise I want the most talented position player on the board. 

 

I'd get my pitching prospects every other avenue - any other draft slot, international, trades, etc. 

If I'm a scout, my first question about a HS or college pitcher is, how does he achieve velocity? It's so easy to damage a shoulder, an elbow, etc. I would look for pitchers that have a very sound kinetic chain, a synchronized sequence starting from the ground up. I would look for most of the power/velocity to be achieved before the flip, so that the finish puts no undue stress on the upper body. No inverted W with that violent, late torque. 

 

The first time I saw Tyler Jay, I noticed a very quick, hard snap at the end of an abbreviated leg and body drive. I couldn't believe my eyes. This was going to be a starting pitcher? I doubted my own perceptions because...well... the Twins have professional scouts. Right?? So what I thought I was seeing, that must be wrong, somehow. 

 

Now Tyler Jay has wrecked his shoulder, which means he will need to learn how to throw without repeating the injury. If he keeps throwing it the same way, he will either need to slow down, or he'll wreck his shoulder again. Bye-bye, mid 90's fastball. So long, hard slider. We hardly knew ye. 

 

Moral: Pick only pitchers that have a smooth, easy motion with no hard torques or snaps. Even if they don't throw high 90's, at least they may last all the way through the minor leagues without surgery. I'll take a gangly, smooth throwing kid like Felix Jorge over a flame thrower like Jay any day. 

[Guest]

Not in top 10 overall picks, track record is brutal. Later in first round if they drop, otherwise load up in rounds 2 and beyond.

 

This year was actually a really good model. 2012 was another good example, not surprising it was their best draft in a long time, and the 3rd and 4th best players from that draft were pitchers in the 5th and 11th rounds. Pitchers pop from unexpected places.

David Price, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw say "hi."

[Guest]

Again.... I'm not saying there is no skill involved.  Just because you improve the odds through skill based scouting does not make it not a crapshoot. There is still the matter of luck and other factors which makes EVERY prospect a roll of the dice, hence a crapshoot.

Drafting is more similar to blackjack than craps. Any one play may unexpectedly fail, but, with skill, you hope to reduce errors and, over time and quantity, improve your odds of success.

 

The problem regarding Jay was that it was the last and loudest gasp of an erroneous strategy and, in aggregate with other drafts, such as Kohl Stewart, it seems almost like drafting Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn instead of Stephen Curry, except of course that Rubio became a capable professional athlete. In both cases, careers were ended and organizations changed.

[Mr. Brooks]

Really? Are we talking about the same thing here?

 

Per Webster dictionary. Crapshoot -something (such as a business venture, insert team drafting baseball players) that has an unpredictable outcome. Again this is Webster dictionary.

 

So you are saying that scouting is 100% predictable (keep in mind i never said % anything originally). And that lower round picks are not a crapshoot?

Ok, but by that definition, nearly every decision a human being makes in a lifetime is a crapshoot.

Almost nothing in the world has a 100% predictable outcome.

[drjim]

David Price, Justin Verlander and Clayton Kershaw say "hi."

Correct, not a 100% failure rate.

[jud6312]

 

Let's put it this way, you would much much rather have Tommy John surgery on your elbow than to have a your first rib resectioned and removed cutting into the brachial plexus, cutting the scalenes and subclavius muscles.  The list is not good for recovery and returning to the player's old self.  I guess it's still better than a labrum or anterior capsule tear.

That's kind of what I was thinking, but it wasn't a real complete list I found. Was hoping there were some major success stories that I was overlooking.

 

Here's hoping he can be the first. At least it's not a Urias situation.

[Bob Sacamento]

The entire nature of throwing a ball overhand is one of the absolute worst physical motions that the human body endures in all of sports.  The body is simply not structurally made to do the overhand motion of pitching especially in a repetitive manner at the speed and intensity that they are being done.  One is literally creating a "whip" with your body that transfers force all the way from the lower half of your body through the torso through the shoulder then the elbow and finally the hand and fingers creating 90+ mph that's transferred to the ball.

 

Can you do exercises, strengthening, weighted balls, "specialized mechanics" and other training to improve your chances of not doing damage to your arm? Yes, but you can NOT prevent it due to the nature of the action.

 

I'll tell you all what one scout once told me, "pitching like smoking, will eventually catch up to you".  

[Squirrel]

Stop with the crapshoot discussion. I think you all are near the same page except for the definition of 'crapshoot,' and this isn't the thread for that discussion. So move on, as you've all made your point as far as Jay and the draft goes.