2017 MLB draft thread

[gunnarthor]

 

Does anyone have any updated thoughts on (overall) picks #35 and #37?  If not names, then positions?

 

I, myself, would go pitching, pitching, pitching.

If they take Greene, I certainly want a college arm at 35/37. What I'm hoping for is something like McKay followed by Romero and/or Clarke and/or getting one top 20 player to drop to 37 for $. I think we could get a high upside HS pitcher with McKay and Romero, I'd be thrilled.

[gunnarthor]

New mock up at mlbpipeline 

http://m.mlb.com/news/article/229743034/jim-callis-mock-projection-2017-mlb-draft/

 

They have the Twins taking McKay "Most clubs expect the Twins to take McKay, the best two-way prospect in more than four decades, rather than make Greene the first prep righty selected No. 1 overall. Whether they'll take McKay as a first baseman or lefty starter, or even let him try to do both for a while, is unclear."

 

He doesn't think Carlson will fall out of the first round but does have both Clarke and Romreo falling out of the first round.  

[drjim]

 

This seems a little light on velocity. I'm not feeling McKay as much as others. Should make a rotation and be ok, seems ceiling is not as high as Wright or certainly Greene.

[Oldgoat_MN]

I'm concerned with the scouts saying that Greene is over-hyped. It does occur to me that way since he hasn't really had to establish his secondary pitches.

If I were going to take a HS prospect I would think about taking Gore first. You can meet with him before the draft and if he will agree to a signing that saves you some money you can probably take and pay someone at 35 who would normally wait a year.

I want the surest thing with the highest upside. No such thing of course, but that's what I want.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm concerned with the scouts saying that Greene is over-hyped. It does occur to me that way since he hasn't really had to establish his secondary pitches.

If I were going to take a HS prospect I would think about taking Gore first. You can meet with him before the draft and if he will agree to a signing that saves you some money you can probably take and pay someone at 35 who would normally wait a year.

I want the surest thing with the highest upside. No such thing of course, but that's what I want.

 

I'd say that last sentence describes Wright, right now, given what I can glean from the interwebs.

[drjim]

 

Did follow up with this

[Willihammer]

I get the concern with velocity and agree to an extent. If McKay slides in the next few weeks then an Addell or even R. Lewis type would be just fine with me.

[nicksaviking]

 

Well... the thing is that he has 3 MLB pitches right now.   The kid has a fastball that is flat and fast and "he is a great athlete" and nothing else.

 

This is not the NFL.  And even Cordarelle Patterson kinda bombed there.

 

You got to go with the surest thing closest to the majors.  At this point it is a no-brainer.  Really.  Even all the pundits have the Twins taking him 1-1.

 

Greene, yeah, alright.  Good luck

 

There's no such thing as a surest thing when it comes to baseball players and there is no way that a guy with a low 90's FB in college could ever be considered a sure thing, with low velocity there is basically no margin for error. I'm not taking the guy closest to the majors if there are other players who have significantly higher ceilings. Been there done that with this team to awful results. Even without a past bitter taste in my mouth from the phrase "close to the majors" I wouldn't pass up guys with much higher ceilings.

 

I'd still take Greene, but as I said if the team is uncomfortable with a 17-year-old, I'd still be happy with Wright. Or even a handful of other guys. I still think McKay has lots of helium due to being a pitcher or a batter which is silly since he's only going to do one.

[drjim]

I get the concern with velocity and agree to an extent. If McKay slides in the next few weeks then an Addell or even R. Lewis type would be just fine with me.

Dip in velocity could mean injury too. And velocity usually drops going from every 7 days to every 5 days.

 

I personally haven't dug in as much on Adell or Lewis. I'm much more on Wright.

[Willihammer]

 

And velocity usually drops going from every 7 days to every 5 days.

Is that actually true?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Is that actually true?

 

It is surprisingly hard to find that answer on the interwebs, so far!

[Twins33]

I know the MLB pipeline write up says McKay is normally 90-94 but loses a couple ticks by the middle innings.

[drivlikejehu]

I think I like McKay more as a 1st baseman. The velocity does worry me. I'm not crazy about Greene and definitely not Wright, nothing about him says 1-1. 

 

Pitchers in general are a crap-shoot because of the heightened injury risk. I see taking a really elite pitcher 1-1, but I don't think there is such a pitcher in this class. 

[Willihammer]

Friday night notables:

 

FL vs AL

Faedo: 7.0, 3, 1, 4, 8

 

Louisville vs Clemson:

McKay: 0-3, 1BB, 1K

McKay: 5.0, 5, 0, 3, 7

 

Vandy vs. AR

Kendall: 1-3, 1SB, 2K

 

Miss St. vs GA

Rooker: 2-3, 1HR, 1BB, 1K

 

Oregon St vs OR

Peterson: 5.0, 4, 4, 4, 5

 

UCLA vs. Wash. St

Canning: 7.0, 10, 4, 2, 6

 

VA and UNC didn't play.

[Willihammer]

McKay's teammate Drew Ellis is having a hell of a year. Redshirted in 2015, he's in his second full season of action.

 

6' 2, 192, R/R, plays 3B, corner OF and 1B.

He hit .309/.426/.468 in his first year.

This year he has improved to .392/.486/.722 (1.208) with 13 home runs against 31 strikeouts in 211 PAs (14.7%). He was 3-4 last night with a double.

[Willihammer]

Rooker continues to pace the entire NCAA in slugging. Now sits at .409/.509/.898 (1.407).

With 20 home runs he only trails Ben Fisher of Eastern KY and Niko Hulsizer of Morehead St (who have 21).

 

edit: Jake Burger (Missouri St) also has 20. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Is that actually true?

Yes, throwing on four days rest is definitely more taxing on an arm than throwing on five or even six days rest.  More rest leads to more recovery time which leads to stronger and healthier arms.   There is likely data out there as well but I can tell you from anecdotal accounts from pitchers in the GCL that it's true.

[Hrbowski]

 

Does anyone have any updated thoughts on (overall) picks #35 and #37?  If not names, then positions?

 

I, myself, would go pitching, pitching, pitching.

High school arm and college bat. They really like Shane Baz, and I think that they could try to get him to fall to #35. If they can't, Sam Carlson or Hagen Danner could be grabbed there. They also have been fans of Tanner Houck for a long time, but he probably won't fall that far.

[Lonestar]

 

High school arm and college bat. They really like Shane Baz, and I think that they could try to get him to fall to #35. If they can't, Sam Carlson or Hagen Danner could be grabbed there. They also have been fans of Tanner Houck for a long time, but he probably won't fall that far.

So what are the possibilities of Carlson playing up his Florida commitment, then signing for 1-15 money ($3,588,200) at #35.

[Hrbowski]

 

So what are the possibilities of Carlson playing up his Florida commitment, then signing for 1-15 money ($3,588,200) at #35.

Depends on who else is interested in him.

[biggentleben]

 

High school arm and college bat. They really like Shane Baz, and I think that they could try to get him to fall to #35. If they can't, Sam Carlson or Hagen Danner could be grabbed there. They also have been fans of Tanner Houck for a long time, but he probably won't fall that far.

 

I really think Houck has a better chance of getting to 35 than Baz or Carlson, both of which are getting quite a bit of buzz from teams in the top 15.

[drjim]

[drjim]

https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/863583366066708480

[drjim]

[drjim]

Reports are he hit 97 and was electric overall.

 

Take him. Plenty of upside and has a chance to be in the rotation by next year.

[gunnarthor]

Yeah, I don't mind either McKay or Wright. Take the one that'll sign for the lower bonus.

[Tibs]

I'm just not sure of how to feel about McKay as the top pick right now. He is clearly a very good prospect at pitcher, but nothing I have read has sold me on him as being the number one pick in the draft. Reading about him sitting at 88-90 in a game recently makes me nervous. I don't care if he didn't have his best stuff that day. He is only 21 so there is still plenty of time for him to build up strength and add a little velocity, but at the same time the requirements for a pitcher physically in professional baseball are quite a bit higher than they are at the college level. It sounds like he has a very good curveball and an improving change-up with great command of all his pitches. Is that enough to be the #1 overall pick?

 

At the end of the day, I'm not a scouting expert. All I can do is read scouting reports and watch short YouTube videos of him. I'll have to trust the judgement of the Twins scouts. I'll be excited to see how he does if the Twins pick him because he could potentially help the team soon. I'm just a little worried about his ceiling.

[Einstein1]

Does this concern anyone about Kyle Wright, or is it overblown? 

 

https://twitter.com/thepainguy/status/859466649853984769

[Mike Sixel]

I am leaning Wright more and more, in addition to predicting they will do that. .

[biggentleben]

 

Does this concern anyone about Kyle Wright, or is it overblown? 

 

https://twitter.com/thepainguy/status/859466649853984769

 

It shouldn't. O'Leary is basically a snake oil salesman in the eyes of MLB people.