Article: Twins Minor League Report (5/15): Gibson Ks 10

[nater79a]

 

Gordon is looking pretty good, but let's not get ahead of ourselves.  He has a .391 BABIP this year, and his ISO bump is largely dependent on triples.  His BB% is up, but his K% is too, and his SB are way down.  He's still a solid prospect, no doubt, but I think it's early to suggest he's ascending to elite status.

 

Well, compared to some of our other 1st rounders I'll take it!

[Dantes929]

 

Kyle Gibson's start doesn't encourage me much. The thing he's supposed to be working on is attacking the strike zone. I wonder how many of those 10 K's would turn into even more walks if he were facing more disciplined MLB hitters.

I guess it can go both ways.    Kind of depends on the at bats.   Were they 3-2 counts where he threw sliders to get them to chase or were they 3-0 counts where he didn't have command.     I will go with slightly encouraged.    Its better than his other start.  I don't know what to make of him.   Two years ago he would throw clunkers but at least as often as not he would throw a gem and I am ok with that in a 3-5 starter.    ST seemed encouraging but I understand the short leash.    He just hasn't produced.

[TRex]

 

I think he is still in that range.  Seems unlikely that he finishes at .850 this year, based on components thus far.  Just regressing his BABIP to .355 (which would still be a career high for him), which is simply taking away 4 singles from his 2017 line, and he'd be having a .798 OPS so far.  Downgrade two triples to doubles (which would give him a career normal triples rate, and a career high double rate) and he'd be at .784.

... or add another triple and a HR and you have mass confusion! Now you have to downgrade three triples to doubles, two doubles to singles, 2 HR to triples... and then another triple to a double, and another double to a single. Do I have that right?

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I think he is still in that range.  Seems unlikely that he finishes at .850 this year, based on components thus far.  Just regressing his BABIP to .355 (which would still be a career high for him), which is simply taking away 4 singles from his 2017 line, and he'd be having a .798 OPS so far.  Downgrade two triples to doubles (which would give him a career normal triples rate, and a career high double rate) and he'd be at .784.

It's possible he's still in that range and his BABIP is unsustainably high but there's more going on with Gordon than just getting hits.

 

His walks are back up to an acceptable level (9.3%) but his K rate has held close to steady (19.8%, up a couple of points over last season).

 

But the real difference is the power. Now, he's coming out of the FSL so we should expect a power surge but Gordon's ISO has jumped from .095 to .185 at the same time he made a significant jump in talent level, as he's now playing in AA at just 21 years old.

 

Last season, Gordon had 493 PAs with 23 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR.

 

This season, Gordon has 162 PAs with 8 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR. He's on pace to add 50% to his XBH total and more of those XBH are going for 3+ bases.

 

That's the kind of trend you expect and want to see with a lean 21 year old player. All he did was smack doubles last season. This season, more of those doubles are turning into triples or leaving the park.

 

Time will tell whether this holds but there are reasons to be optimistic.

[John Kelsey]

 

Wow. Wasn't Crawford like top-5 as little as a year ago? Man...

 

4th on MLB this year. http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017

 

He'll move down on the midterm rankings. 

[Otto von Ballpark]

Brock, to be fair, Gordon added a triple and a HR since my post.

 

Although it is still a small sample. Before yesterday he had 2 HR, for a full season pace of 6 HR. Better than where he was before but not necessarily indicative of a real meaningful improvement in the power department.

 

Triples are also pretty variable, as we've seen with Rosario, especially in the minors. Seeing that Gordon doubled his rate of hitting triples, with only a modest improvement in HR rate, was another reason I questioned his power improvement.

[thegambler]

What's going up with Tanner English? Moving back down to A ball? He was in Rochester last year.

[diehardtwinsfan]

 

It's possible he's still in that range and his BABIP is unsustainably high but there's more going on with Gordon than just getting hits.

 

His walks are back up to an acceptable level (9.3%) but his K rate has held close to steady (19.8%, up a couple of points over last season).

 

But the real difference is the power. Now, he's coming out of the FSL so we should expect a power surge but Gordon's ISO has jumped from .095 to .185 at the same time he made a significant jump in talent level, as he's now playing in AA at just 21 years old.

 

Last season, Gordon had 493 PAs with 23 2B, 6 3B, 3 HR.

 

This season, Gordon has 162 PAs with 8 2B, 5 3B, 3 HR. He's on pace to add 50% to his XBH total and more of those XBH are going for 3+ bases.

 

That's the kind of trend you expect and want to see with a lean 21 year old player. All he did was smack doubles last season. This season, more of those doubles are turning into triples or leaving the park.

 

Time will tell whether this holds but there are reasons to be optimistic.

 

FSL tends to suppress power as well... that is something that cannot be stated enough. When evaluating power in the FSL, you really need to look at it in context to the rest of the league.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

FSL tends to suppress power as well... that is something that cannot be stated enough. When evaluating power in the FSL, you really need to look at it in context to the rest of the league.

Yeah, I briefly mentioned that but it's an important point to note.

 

Though Gordon has nearly as many triples in 2017 as he did in all of 2016. Now, we're dealing with relatively small numbers here so that could be an aberration but given the size of FSL stadiums, if Gordon was really ripping the ball in 2016, he probably should have had more triples. He's not nearly as fast as his brother but he's supposed to have pretty good wheels.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Fangraphs has wRC+ for minor league hitters, which does some adjusting for league and park, and Gordon was doing pretty well (above average) up until this year, even with the lack of power.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

Fangraphs has wRC+ for minor league hitters, which does some adjusting for league and park, and Gordon was doing pretty well (above average) up until this year, even with the lack of power.

His wRC+ lines up with my expectations. Previous to 2017, he was a solid, though unspectacular, hitter. This season is waaaaay above that. It will be interesting to follow if/when that BABIP normalizes.

[bird]

Gordon may end up being an okay MLB shortstop, but when it comes to triples, he won't hold a candle to Sano.

[Otto von Ballpark]

Sano could possibly set a triples record, just by stopping at third on his home runs?

[Mike Sixel]

 

Sano could possibly set a triples record, just by stopping at third on his home runs?

 

shouldn't a home run count as a single, double, and triple anyway? I mean, he did touch all the bases...