Tonkin

[bizaff]

 

And no, stop that, that is NOT an appeal to authority. No one said "so they are right." However, i will suggest that we should acknowledge our own ignorance, yours and mine alike. We so often state opinions in a tone as if it's so obvious we're right and the other guy is a dunderhead.

 

Who are we to say a sound judgment wasn't made that Tonkin was a better bet at season's start (and it is a bet) than, say, Hildenberger?

 

We can lament the results without always finding fault with a decision. Avoiding fault-finding has nothing to do with some sort of appeal to authority. That said, I admit it, I trust the judgment of the Twins field staff a lot more that the opinion about a decision from my pals here on TD, and I can do this without pretending the Twins never screw up..

 

I agree.  I also think it makes a ton of sense to start the season with Tonkin and make sure he's not worth keeping before you cut him.  That's a one way street.  Falvey's a pitching guy - let him do his thing with evaluation and what not.

[yarnivek1972]

IMO, if Melo and Burdi are healthy, and the RP in MN look like this, I'd be disappointed if they weren't here by June or July.

IMO bringing pitchers up before they are ready is setting them up for failure.

[Mike Sixel]

 

IMO bringing pitchers up before they are ready is setting them up for failure.

 

You base them being not ready, as players in their mid 20s, on what?

[drjim]

 

You base them being not ready, as players in their mid 20s, on what?

 

How about the reverse. Burdi pitched a total of 3 games last year and Melotakis is less than a year recovered from TJ, and while he's been fine, is not dominating AA. What exactly are you basing your hope on?

[Mike Sixel]

 

How about the reverse. Burdi pitched a total of 3 games last year and Melotakis is less than a year recovered from TJ, and while he's been fine, is not dominating AA. What exactly are you basing your hope on?

 

That they are healthy, and old enough to handle the pressure and they have stuff better than some of the guys here maybe. Heck, we were told Burdi could be here in less than 2 years if he had been healthy. 

 

Also, they are likely to break down again. I'd hope, for their sake, they get to pitch here while healthy, not only in the minors. 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

That they are healthy, and old enough to handle the pressure and they have stuff better than some of the guys here maybe. Heck, we were told Burdi could be here in less than 2 years if he had been healthy. 

 

Also, they are likely to break down again. I'd hope, for their sake, they get to pitch here while healthy, not only in the minors. 

Agree completely. It's frustrating to see the younger guys with the live arms being held up and used up in the minors. 

 

[drjim]

That they are healthy, and old enough to handle the pressure and they have stuff better than some of the guys here maybe. Heck, we were told Burdi could be here in less than 2 years if he had been healthy.

 

Also, they are likely to break down again. I'd hope, for their sake, they get to pitch here while healthy, not only in the minors.

I'm not sure any of those three things can be assumed right now.

 

And Burdi could have made it, but he got hurt. Not sure 7 innings answers that question.

[Mike Sixel]

 

I'm not sure any of those three things can be assumed right now.

And Burdi could have made it, but he got hurt. Not sure 7 innings answers that question.

 

I did say in my original post, that if they are healthy by June/July, I'd want them up if the bullpen was still playing like this. By then, they are either healthy or not. No place here did I say I was sure they are healthy now. 

[drjim]

I did say in my original post, that if they are healthy by June/July, I'd want them up if the bullpen was still playing like this. By then, they are either healthy or not. No place here did I say I was sure they are healthy now.

That I can see. My mistake for missing the original context.

[yarnivek1972]

You base them being not ready, as players in their mid 20s, on what?

Lack of experience above AA. It's a big jump. AA is 35% prospects, half of which bust out and the rest is org filler. AAA is probably 25% prospects, 25% former major leaguers and the rest are AAA lifers. The hitters are far more disciplined and it is a better litmus test to gauge MLB readiness.

[nicksaviking]

Maybe it's just me but I'm ready to see roughly half the bullpen be replaced. I don't really care in what order.

I prefer in short order actually.

[caninatl04]

Sorry for sounding so dismal, but I look at the entire 2017 season as extended spring training for 2018.  Under this prism, think of the current bullpen as place holders until, and not before, prospects are ready.

[Guest]

He should go to the NL. When he pitches in San Fran, people can sing, "Hittin' Tonkin into the Bay."

[nicksaviking]

The horse is pretty dead at this point, but why should Tonkin essentially get a promotion (from back of bullpen to front of bullpen) for being bad at his job? You have to perform every day, not just in "leverage situations."

..

Because it's not a promotion, it's a role. If you have a guy on 3B with one out you need to bring in a guy who can get a strikeout; basically that's Tonkin's only skill. Molitor needs to stop looking at his bullpen as some kind of hierarchy based on merit and seniority.

 

It's not like you'd ever promote a hot hitting slap-hitter like Ben Revere to the cleanup spot in the lineup.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

 

Lack of experience above AA. It's a big jump. AA is 35% prospects, half of which bust out and the rest is org filler. AAA is probably 25% prospects, 25% former major leaguers and the rest are AAA lifers. The hitters are far more disciplined and it is a better litmus test to gauge MLB readiness.

That's a good general rule, but there are too many instances of guys having success doing it their own way, outside of the boilerplate the Twins use.

 

Now with a 9-man bullpen maybe Tonkin should be a ROOGY for a while

[Shaitan]

 

Because it's not a promotion, it's a role. If you have a guy on 3B with one out you need to bring in a guy who can get a strikeout; basically that's Tonkin's only skill. Molitor needs to stop looking at his bullpen as some kind of hierarchy based on merit and seniority.

It's not like you'd ever promote a hot hitting slap-hitter like Ben Revere to the cleanup spot in the lineup.

The pay bump associated with holds and saves suggests it's promotion.

 

Anyway, I'm too lazy to look up WHIP and compare it to lesser strikeout-reliant pitchers, but I'm pretty sure that Tonkin still isn't qualified in any situation where you need an out.

[drjim]

That's a good general rule, but there are too many instances of guys having success doing it their own way, outside of the boilerplate the Twins use.

 

Now with a 9-man bullpen maybe Tonkin should be a ROOGY for a while

With Gibson and Hughes coming up, no guarantee that 9 is enough.

[yarnivek1972]

Because it's not a promotion, it's a role. If you have a guy on 3B with one out you need to bring in a guy who can get a strikeout; basically that's Tonkin's only skill. Molitor needs to stop looking at his bullpen as some kind of hierarchy based on merit and seniority.

 

It's not like you'd ever promote a hot hitting slap-hitter like Ben Revere to the cleanup spot in the lineup.

Or a cold as ice slap-hitter like Joe Mauer...

 

Oh, wait...

[Thrylos]

 

http://www.twinkietown.com/2016/8/10/12414438/michael-tonkin-and-the-trade-off

 

the myth repeated so often it becomes fact
 

 

 

What is forgotten to be mentioned there, is that his fastball (straight or crooked,) is very hitable, like all his other pitches.  Data here.

[nicksaviking]

The pay bump associated with holds and saves suggests it's promotion.

 

Anyway, I'm too lazy to look up WHIP and compare it to lesser strikeout-reliant pitchers, but I'm pretty sure that Tonkin still isn't qualified in any situation where you need an out.

WHIP means nothing when the game is on the line with a runner on 3B and one out. The runner scores whether Belisle gets a routine grounder to second or if Tonkin gives up a hit.

 

Most teams aren't paying for saves and holds. They pay for strikeouts and command. That has zero reflection on Tonkin, just the idea that in 2017 any smart team would pay for save or a hold.

[bird]

 

if it's not obvious these are opinions of a person that doesn't work in baseball, and not facts, I can't help....

 

healthy options last year?

 

I would have called up Hildenberger. Jake Reed. Would have to look for other names later but those are off the top of my head. 

 

 

Those are good names to suggest, and I think you and I will agree that the merits of advancing them back then would have been worthy of some debate. I'm not picking on you, just see too many right versus wrong comments about these decisions, you know?

 

 

[drjim]

Not going to be Chargois taking his spot for a while.

 

[Mike Sixel]

 

Not going to be Chargois taking his spot for a while.

 

@#$^$#^(*#$^*&U#@$(*(*@^*&@$Y*&*&*&*&W$%@$%@! bleepity bleep bleep.

[bizaff]

 

What is forgotten to be mentioned there, is that his fastball (straight or crooked,) is very hitable, like all his other pitches.  Data here.

 

Which goes to the heart of the issue - if his fastball has all this great movement, why is it so hitable?

 

If Falvey/Levine see something there that they think they can work with, he absolutely should remain on the roster.  Once they decide there's nothing more they can do for him or someone far better is ready and he's at the bottom of the list, cut him.

[yarnivek1972]

Not going to be Chargois taking his spot for a while.

 

https://twitter.com/njrowan/status/857986900153569280

This may not be the last we hear about this. If Chargois' agent has half a brain he's going to file a grievance to get Chargois his MLB service time and pay for his DL stint. He was optioned in March because he pitched poorly. Gee, wonder if his injury might have had something to do with that. Chargois' agent could argue he should have been medically evaluated before being optioned.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

There have been too many pitcher injuries in the upper minors. I can't chalk it up to just bad luck. All the more reason to get Burdi and Berrios up here.

[Mike Sixel]

 

There have been too many pitcher injuries in the upper minors. I can't chalk it up to just bad luck. All the more reason to get Burdi and Berrios up here.

 

That's what I read on the interwebs, teams are calling up pitchers earlier, while they are not hurt and throw super hard.

[drjim]

 

That's what I read on the interwebs, teams are calling up pitchers earlier, while they are not hurt and throw super hard.

 

You've mentioned this a couple of times, do you have a link to the research on this? I'd like to dig into the numbers a little bit. I'm curious if this is actually true. I suspect that older pitchers are not hanging on as long (a consequence of PEDs), but I'm a little skeptical that the total number of pitchers debuting earlier has changed much. More are in the later 20s instead of mid 30s so that is dragging down the total age.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

You've mentioned this a couple of times, do you have a link to the research on this? I'd like to dig into the numbers a little bit. I'm curious if this is actually true. I suspect that older pitchers are not hanging on as long (a consequence of PEDs), but I'm a little skeptical that the total number of pitchers debuting earlier has changed much. More are in the later 20s instead of mid 30s so that is dragging down the total age.

Research would be nice, but you don't have to search long to find a guy who sped through the minors with no ill effect. For example, Kelvin Herrera graduated A+, AA, AAA, and then debuted in MLB, all in his age 21 season.

[drjim]

 

Research would be nice, but you don't have to search long to find a guy who sped through the minors with no ill effect. For example, Kelvin Herrera graduated A+, AA, AAA, and then debuted in MLB, all in his age 21 season.

 

Sure, there are always guys who do that, for decades. I'm not especially interested in outliers, more curious about broader trends.