"They are who we thought they were!" - Denny Green Memoriam Thread

[Brock Beauchamp]

I intended to start this thread at the 3/4 season mark but decided it works now as a continuing thread throughout the season, much like I started a thread last season with a +wins from the 2011-2014 squads.

 

My hypothesis is this:

 

1. The Twins were badly managed this offseason. I held my nose at Sano transitioning to the OF, stating "the front office knows Miguel better than I do, this decision will live and die with them." The bullpen was left mostly unaddressed, which was a huge sticking point with me. Park, at least to me, seemed superfluous and confusing given the roster. In short, mistakes were made. We saw them, the front office felt differently. Well, to varying degrees, many posters on this forum were right. Water under the bridge, mostly. That's not the point.

 

2. The Twins were horribly unlucky during the first quarter of the season. Yes, some of that was deserved. Yes, some of that was due to varying inconsistencies with the lineup. But there's no way you can make the argument the Twins were lucky last season and not unlucky this season. Around a quarter of the way through the season, I remember a thread where the Twins had something like 17 home runs with the bases empty, two homeruns with men on base. They were near the top of the AL in OBP with with bases empty, near the bottom with men on base. That's not bad roster construction (at least mostly), that's just crap luck.

 

3. The bullpen completely imploded. Many forum posters saw this coming and fretted over it during the entire offseason but even the most jaded poster didn't expect Perkins, May, and Jepsen to collapse simultaneously. That's bad luck. Back luck that could have been mitigated with a better offseason but still bad luck.

 

With that said, let's look at a few numbers:

 

BaseRuns: while I haven't kept records of this through the season, I don't remember the Twins being lower than -7 wins in BaseRuns, which is where they currently stand in 2016. I've been checking pretty regularly so it's unlikely they have moved much from the -7 wins they established in the first ~50 games of the season.

 

That means they were horribly unlucky to start the season and pretty much luck-neutral since that point. That leads into my main point:

 

The Twins are who we thought they were.

 

Most of us predicted the Twins to be a 75-83 win team mainly based on the progression/regression of young players. Yes, the first 40-ish games happened. They obviously count in the standings... But they're not indicative of where the Twins are today or will they will be in 2017.

 

And yes, 75-83 wins is a big swing... But that's what you get with a young team and that prediction covered at least 80%, maybe even 90%, of this forum's predictions going into the season.

 

If the Twins play .500 ball for the rest of the season (more on that later), they'll end up with 72-73 wins. Given the beginning of the season... That seems kind of amazing, doesn't it?

 

The Twins are who we thought they were.

 

So, with this thread, I'm going to track the plus or minus low point of the season. I'm also going to track the quarter mark of the season and how it compares to the rest of the season.

 

Low point of the season:

July 1st: 25-54, .316 winning percentage

Today: 45-66, .405 winning percentage

+/- Wins/Losses to .500: +8

 

Quarter season mark (using 40 games for simplicity):

Quarter season: 10-30, .250 winning percentage

Today: 45-66, .405 winning percentage

+/- Wins/Losses to .500: -1

[drivlikejehu]

I guess I'm not sure I really understand your point here. The Twins have produced at the level of a 75-win team. That figure removes sequencing and other 'luck' considerations, at least at the team level.

 

So if you accept that the Twins are a 75-win team, is that really good news? It's better than, say, 70 wins, but considering how long the Twins have been losing, a 75-win caliber team just doesn't get me all that excited.

[gbg]

What I think he's saying is that the Twins, minus that awful first 40 games, have performed much BETTER than a 75-win team. Over the past 71 games, they've been an 80-win team, and over the past 32 games (since July 1), they're playing at a 101-win pace. 

 

I don't think he's suggesting that they'll win 101 games next year. At least I hope not with a straight face. 

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

I guess I'm not sure I really understand your point here. The Twins have produced at the level of a 75-win team. That figure removes sequencing and other 'luck' considerations, at least at the team level.

 

So if you accept that the Twins are a 75-win team, is that really good news? It's better than, say, 70 wins, but considering how long the Twins have been losing, a 75-win caliber team just doesn't get me all that excited.

Not necessarily "good" news, but news contrary to the deep depression found in much of this forum.

 

This thread is tied into where the Twins will be in 2017 and 2018. It's reasonable to expect them to turn into a competent team in the near future and we shouldn't write off the advances we're seeing from key players today.

[Brock Beauchamp]

 

What I think he's saying is that the Twins, minus that awful first 40 games, have performed much BETTER than a 75-win team. Over the past 71 games, they've been an 80-win team, and over the past 32 games (since July 1), they're playing at a 101-win pace. 

 

I don't think he's suggesting that they'll win 101 games next year. At least I hope not with a straight face. 

Yeah, that's the general point. Those first 40 games can't be erased but given how they played out, they weren't entirely indicative of the talent of the 2016 Minnesota Twins.

 

Since that time, they've been mediocre. In the past month, they've been quite good.

 

That tells me this is a team on the right track, one that should think about investing in its immediate future.

 

And a team that should never, ever be declared hopeless as one ESPN write did recently (I think it was ESPN, I could be mistaken).

 

This is a team on the upswing.

[TheLeviathan]

I have a hard time saying we are on the upswing until two things are sorted out:

 

1) The young should be superstars: Fix Buxton and figure out where Sano plays

 

2) Competent pitching - we're goign to need a helluva lot more of it before we are officially on the upswing

 

It's nice seeing some guys like Kepler, Vargas, Rosario, Berrios, and others showing signs of growth.  But there are a lot of unanswered questions and still a sizable chunk of the season to play.

[drivlikejehu]

Those are key points. I don't see much of an "upswing" - the Twins just aren't as bad as their record, as last year they weren't as good as their record. The team was legitimately awful for several years and now is mediocre, despite some luck giving both false hope and false despair.

 

Pitching has been such an intractable issue for the organization that I can't write it off as a major stumbling block. 

[stringer bell]

OK, to Brock's general point, I agree wholeheartedly. I was going to divide the season in thirds. Of the top of my head, the Twins were 16-38 in the first third, and 27-27 in the middle third. I don't believe a contender can have a 16-38 stretch, but plenty of contenders (who make post-season) have had long intervals of so-so baseball, such as that 27-27 stretch the Twins just completed. 

 

I don't think we can expect the team to contend next year without new faces on the pitching staff, but I believe there is enough fully developed talent amongst the position players for the 2017 team to contend. That is why I don't want their best player the past four years to be traded.

[dbminn]

 

I don't think we can expect the team to contend next year without new faces on the pitching staff, but I believe there is enough fully developed talent amongst the position players for the 2017 team to contend.

 

Yup

[diehardtwinsfan]

I think the big problem is pitching. I could see 2017 being at best a .500 team, but without some serious strides in that department, I don't see them ready for the show... though at this point, keeping guys like Milone and Santiago in the rotation are probably doing more harm than good.  Time to turn it over to the kids, and if they don't think that Gibson can take that next step, I see him getting traded when guys like Gonsalves, Jorge, Stewart, and Romero are all in AAA.

[Richie the Rally Goat]

I have a hard time saying we are on the upswing until two things are sorted out:

 

1) The young should be superstars: Fix Buxton and figure out where Sano plays

 

2) Competent pitching - we're goign to need a helluva lot more of it before we are officially on the upswing

 

It's nice seeing some guys like Kepler, Vargas, Rosario, Berrios, and others showing signs of growth. But there are a lot of unanswered questions and still a sizable chunk of the season to play.

this is a lot better than "Ef-it, just blow the whole thing up and start over." Which was a legit statement on July 1.

 

However I'm with you on the status of Pitching, especially starting. Outside of Berrios they got nothing with upside for two more years.