Article: Twins Daily Draft Preview: College Pitchers

[Jeremy Nygaard]

Though we’ve spent the last few months hearing about the interest the Twins have in prep power arms, it’s been a new demographic - college pitchers - who have started making their way to the forefront.

 

Some names are ones you many have heard of. Some names might be new.WHO ARE THEY?

 

Same with the high school class, the top of class isn’t likely to be available at #15. Unlike the high school class, only one name, Florida southpaw A.J. Puk, appears to have no chance to be available.

 

The next tier of collegiate arms includes Justin Dunn (RHP, Boston College), Zack Burdi (RHP, Louisville), Dakota Hudson (RHP, Mississippi State), Cody Sedlock (RHP, Illinois) and Cal Quantrill (RHP, Stanford) among others.

 

WHY THE TWINS WILL DRAFT ONE OF THEM

 

With the fluidity of the draft board thanks to recent developments, including bonus demands and drug tests, the college class is the most stable group. With the exception of Quantrill, all are healthy. And all are signable. Burdi was profiled here, so we’ll focus on the other four today.

 

Justin Dunn (6-2, 185) has as much helium coming into the draft as anyone. After converting to the rotation from the bullpen early in the season, Dunn has settled into a mid-90s strike-thrower who also features a slider with a developing curveball and changeup. Dunn is still a relatively fresh arm, with only 120 innings thrown in his three seasons at Boston College

 

Dakota Hudson (6-5, 225) might have the best stuff in the draft. A mid-90s fastball and potentially plus curveball headline his four-pitch mix. Hudson also was working on limited innings after his first two years at Mississippi State (34.0 total), but was successful last summer in the Cape Cod League (56 2/3 innings) before throwing 106 more innings as a junior.

 

Cody Sedlock (6-4, 210) has become a workhorse for the Illini in 2016, proving to be extremely durable. Averaging 118.75 pitches over his last four starts (which doesn’t include a 9 1/3 inning start a month ago that didn’t track his pitches, Sedlock has already endured pitch counts that would make Bert Blyleven proud.

 

Cal Quantrill (6-3, 185) was a legitimate 1-1 candidate before suffering from elbow issues. While healthy, Quantrill has a four-pitch mix that features a low-90s fastball with a plus changeup. His dad, Paul, was an undersized righty who had a 14-year big league career, leading his league in appearances four straight years, making the All-Star game as an 11-win reliever in 2001.

 

WHY THE TWINS WON'T DRAFT ANY OF THEM

 

Depending on who you talk to, you could get many different takes on how these pitchers rank and who to include in this tier. Maybe they’ll go with a college pitcher, but select one that is outside of this group. Maybe the team is confident that their bonus slot can meet the demand of a prep arm. Maybe one of the few bats they like falls into their lap.

 

There’re also some things that could have you look the other way with the pitchers mentioned above.

 

It won’t be a factor with the Twins, but Dunn doesn’t have a long track-record as a starter.

 

Hudson’s biggest question mark is his fastball command. He walked 34, threw 14 wild pitches and hit eight batters this year. Those numbers aren’t always indicative of “command issues”, but they help substantiate the issue.

 

Should there be concerns about Sedlock’s workload? How many MLB pitchers have thrown 10 2/3 innings in a game this season? How many have thrown 132 pitches in a game? Sedlock did both of those in an April start this season. Oh, Sedlock threw between 31 and 32 innings in both of his first two seasons, so this was quite a jump.

 

Quantrill hasn’t pitched in a game since undergoing Tommy John surgery in March of 2015, so there’s a lot of mystery around the pitcher who is said to have a deal in place with the Padres.

Names that I’m less high on are T.J. Zeuch (RHP, Pittsburgh), Connor Jones (RHP, Virginia) and Eric Lauer (LHP, Kansas State). All three are getting first-round buzz.

 

Other draft-related articles:

Local Profiles

Zack Burdi

Zack Collins

Prep Arms

10-round mock

Draft Board

Alex Kirilloff

 

Click here to view the article

[gunnarthor]

I'm a bit wary of taking Sedlock and am pretty firmly in the Hudson camp.  

 

Speaking of college pitchers, do you have any idea how the Twins view Alex Hansen?  Would they consider him at 56?

[CwK]

This article prompted me to look up Dillon Tate (a guy I hoped would fall to the Twins last year) and... Woof. Guy is struggling big time. And, while I am glad we took Jay, I hope we take a high schooler this year.

[gunnarthor]

Also, since we're on college pitchers, did Kyle Cody sign the piece of paper that would let the Twins redraft him this year?  Is that bridge burned?

[Thrylos]

 

Dakota Hudson (6-5, 225) might have the best stuff in the draft. A mid-90s fastball and potentially plus curveball headline his four-pitch mix. Hudson also was working on limited innings after his first two years at Mississippi State (34.0 total), but was successful last summer in the Cape Cod League (56 2/3 innings) before throwing 106 more innings as a junior.

 

 

Wrong Hudson maybe?  

 

The one who is up for draft has two pitches (the fast that he tosses a horrible change and a slower also horrible slider does not count) :  An above average to plus FB that has reached up to 97 and a plus cutter/slider that sits at 87-90.   Command has been a pretty big issue as well.

 

Unless he develops at least a third pitch and harvests his command, his ceiling is that of a closer.   Which is nothing to sneeze at, but he is a questionable pick at 15

Edited June 8, 2016 by Thrylos

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Wrong Hudson maybe?  

 

The one who is up for draft has two pitches (the fast that he tosses a horrible change and a slower also horrible slider does not count) :  An above average to plus FB that has reached up to 97 and a plus cutter/slider that sits at 87-90.   Command has been a pretty big issue as well.

 

Unless he develops at least a third pitch and harvests his command, his ceiling is that of a closer.   Which is nothing to sneeze at, but he is a questionable pick at 15

I'm not a fan of his as I think he ends up in the pen but BA had this to say about him:

 

thanks to a four-pitch mix that starts with a fastball that at its best sits 94 mph and ranges from 92-96 mph. His velocity and command have wavered a bit as he blew past his career high for innings. Hudson's hard curveball is plus on its best days in the 78-82 mph range, and he complements it with a an upper-80s cutter and solid-average changeup that help him combat lefthanded hitters better than in the past (.267 opponents average vs. .229 for righthanded hitters). Hudson's fastball command is below-par for the typical top-10 pick but his electric stuff could push him up into that range.

Edited June 8, 2016 by Bob Sacamento

[nicksaviking]

I was higher on Hudson earlier but every new report keeps bringing up his velocity going early in the game and early in the season. I really wanted to like him, but I'm more suspect now.

 

With how Giolito and Hoffman proved the teams afraid of TJ history wrong, I'm all for Quantrill.

 

 

[gunnarthor]

 

I was higher on Hudson earlier but every new report keeps bringing up his velocity going early in the game and early in the season. I really wanted to like him, but I'm more suspect now.

 

With how Giolito and Hoffman proved the teams afraid of TJ history wrong, I'm all for Quantrill.

At 15, you're going to have warts.  He has (arguably) the best stuff of any college pitcher. mlbpipeline's write up on him concluded with "His stuff, durable frame and performance give him the look of a frontline starter."  

 

He has stuff to work on but his upside is pretty darn good and a realistic floor for him would be a darn good closer.  That's not bad.  

[Einstein1]

The more I see and read about Justin Dunn the more I like him.  I'm hoping he makes it to 15.   I wouldn't mind Braxton Garrett either though.  

[d-mac]

 

Also, since we're on college pitchers, did Kyle Cody sign the piece of paper that would let the Twins redraft him this year?  Is that bridge burned?

 

I hope they don't draft him. I was not a fan of the pick last year, still don't like him. 

[Bob Sacamento]

 

I was higher on Hudson earlier but every new report keeps bringing up his velocity going early in the game and early in the season. I really wanted to like him, but I'm more suspect now.

 

With how Giolito and Hoffman proved the teams afraid of TJ history wrong, I'm all for Quantrill.

Only problem is Quantrill hasn't really pitched in almost two seasons, as his last action was Feb 27th 2015.  So you're going off of scouting reports from his Freshman year and 3 starts as a Sophomore. 

His makeup off the charts but his scouting report was good not great at that time, a good fastball and really good changeup but with a below average breaking ball not the best for a RHP.  Just heard John Manuel throw out the Dewon Brazelton stuff comp on Quantrill.

 

A few teams (Pads, Blue Jays) have had him in for tryouts and have been rumored to try and get a deal done.

[nicksaviking]

 

Only problem is Quantrill hasn't really pitched in almost two seasons, as his last action was Feb 27th 2015.  So you're going off of scouting reports from his Freshman year and 3 starts as a Sophomore. 

His makeup off the charts but his scouting report was good not great at that time, a good fastball and really good changeup but with a below average breaking ball not the best for a RHP.  Just heard John Manuel throw out the Dewon Brazelton stuff comp on Quantrill.

 

A few teams (Pads, Blue Jays) have had him in for tryouts and have been rumored to try and get a deal done.

 

I don't trust anyone at #15, so it's a great position to gamble. There isn't a safe pick out there, and I'd probably be upset due to a low ceiling if there was one.

 

If Quantrill has the most upside, and I'm not saying he does as I'm just an armchair fain, I'd take him. I don't care much about injury history or lack of recent playing time, it's a crap shoot anyway. I'd also think the only reason Quantrill hasn't pitched this year is simply because guys coming back from TJ surgery tend to be rusty and he'd prefer not to audition at all than audition with rust.

[jorgenswest]

The Twins have to go for upside. If they end up with the 15th best player in the round, it will be a disappointment. Go back 10 years. The player ranked 15th in WAR drafted in the first round (not including supplemental) of the 2006 draft is Hank Conger. An aberration? Maybe. In 2005 it is Chris Volstad. In 2007 it is Pete Kozma.

 

The safe pick lands them a back up catcher, fringe starter or utility man off the bench. It is far better to go for a guy with upside that may never see the majors. If they end up with the 15th most productive player in the round, that player will have little impact on the future success of the Twins.

 

FYI- the Twins drafted Matt Garza, Chris Parmelee and Ben Revere over those three years. All have a WAR rank in the round better than the spot they were drafted.

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Really interesting that Sedlock and Hudson have nearly identical stat lines in college. With only one season as starter and relief their first two seasons. I wonder when the Twins started putting scouting eyes on them? Is there StatCast type of data they have access to?

[Bob Sacamento]

 

Really interesting that Sedlock and Hudson have nearly identical stat lines in college. With only one season as starter and relief their first two seasons. I wonder when the Twins started putting scouting eyes on them? Is there StatCast type of data they have access to?

Well you can bet the Twins scouts had tab notes on Sedlock dating back to last year as they scouted Tyler Jay pretty well who was also an Illini alum.  Do you know who else is an Illini alum?? Me! 

[Hosken Bombo Disco]

Well you can bet the Twins scouts had tab notes on Sedlock dating back to last year as they scouted Tyler Jay pretty well who was also an Illini alum.  Do you know who else is an Illini alum?? Me!

 

Nice! Only been there once. Thanks for that info. Two dots connect for me.